I don’t see them pushing any further down into the lower UHF spectrum. The money they already spent on the spectrum they just got is one heck of a gamble on their part.
One simple reason why.
For traditional cellular data capacity. The total usable aggregate data bandwidth per MHZ of spectrum is so low that it would not be economical to build out such spectrum even if it was given to them.
I am not talking about the total MHZ of spectrum, but the deliverable data rate per MHZ of spectrum.
That is caused by the fact that the frequency is getting low enough in the spectrum that they can’t use normal sectorization techniques. Normal panel antennas, and other antenna technology will not produce clean, sharp and controllable high gain antenna patterns at those frequencies.
Instead of a frequency reuse rate of 3, 4, 5 sectors per cell, they are talking about a reuse rate of 2, if they are lucky. Most likely reuse rate will be 1 sectors per cell. The total build out cost per GB of data capacity per customer will be astronomical.
The tv spectrum they are already getting in the upper UHF tv band already suffers that problem to a degree. That is why they are not planning to use it for individual data capacity. They are planning on trying to use it for a relatively new and untested idea called streaming data broadcasting. When they have multiple customers in an area that is watching the same data stream then they can broadcast it to the entire area over the lower frequency bands, and that allows them to get system gains from the fact that multiple phones can utilize the same information stream across the entire area.
If that idea for the newly auctioned TV spectrum falls through, then I expect to see them drop the UHF TV spectrum like a hot potato. It will be like UPS and the 200 mhz spectrum. After their idea fails to live up to expectation, they will just walk away from it. The money they spent on the auctions will be written off as a loss.
If the data broadcasting idea does fall through, I expect to see the push for any more TV bandwidth in the UHF range to grind to a halt, and the bands they already purchased to be abandoned in place.
I don’t see them going for the LMR spectrum even if the idea is somewhat successful. If it falls through, then I expect total abandonment.
Basically like they did with VHF lo.
Abandon in place.
In that situation, they may issue an NPRM to open up the GMRS band to unlicensed users, and even increase the number of channels. (roll in a number of UHF LMR channels) That is if they even take the time to even revisit the subject after everything grinds to a halt.