blizzard question.

pdfdems286 · #1 (**permalink**) 10-13-2008, 10:04 PM

i'm gearing up for cold weather survival prep's. how far in advance can a blizzard be predicted ?.

rdale · #2 (**permalink**) 10-13-2008, 10:36 PM

1-12 hours usually, sometimes the more evident ones can be at least "guessed at" a few days out.

mancow · #3 (**permalink**) 10-13-2008, 10:40 PM

Hey, rdale why does it seem that winter storms are so much more difficult to predict? It seems that regular rain storm predictions and tracks are usually very accurate right down to the rain levels. Winter storms never seem to go where they predict. I swear it seems that if they warn of 4" or more it's always the exact opposite.

Maybe it's just a location thing but that's how it seems here in the general eastern Kansas, western Missouri area.

pdfdems286 · #4 (**permalink**) 10-13-2008, 11:11 PM

as alway's a BIG "TANGO YANKEE".

rdale · #5 (**permalink**) 10-14-2008, 08:03 AM

Because the difference between 10 inches of snow and 4 inches of snow, is comparable to the difference between 0.6" rainfall forecast and a 0.3" rainfall forecast. In the summer - you don't really care about a difference like that.

There's not a lot of leeway when you have snow falling at a 12:1 ratio, because a little liquid equivalent causes a lot of white stuff...

mancow · #6 (**permalink**) 10-14-2008, 08:35 AM

Interesting, never realized that. Thanks.

wlmr · #7 (**permalink**) 10-14-2008, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rdale

Because the difference between 10 inches of snow and 4 inches of snow, is comparable to the difference between 0.6" rainfall forecast and a 0.3" rainfall forecast. In the summer - you don't really care about a difference like that.

There's not a lot of leeway when you have snow falling at a 12:1 ratio, because a little liquid equivalent causes a lot of white stuff...

Right on top and in conjunction with rdale's info, the difference of a few more miles-per-hour in the wind speed causes severe havoc with blowing snow whereas it might mean that more of your roofed patio gets wet during a rainstorm.

Raven95150 · #8 (**permalink**) 10-14-2008, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wlmr

Right on top and in conjunction with rdale's info, the difference of a few more miles-per-hour in the wind speed causes severe havoc with blowing snow whereas it might mean that more of your roofed patio gets wet during a rainstorm.

To further add to that...Slight differences in temperature can make big differences in snowfall amounts as well, especially when the temperature is near 32 degrees.

pdfdems286 · #9 (**permalink**) 10-14-2008, 06:05 PM

i get excited at the thought of a good blizzard,as long as i'm nice and warm inside watching it.don't much care to shovel or pay someone to shovel either.