My apologies to the doom and gloom predictors, but many agencies in Hennepin County have had the needed equipment to go to Phase 2 for over a year and haven't.
We do not have band congestion issues in the MSP area or MN in the 800 spectrum that would be the driver for a migration to Phase II. Despite what many think, public safety generally has many better things to worry about than "scanner-land."
There are still physical upgrades to ARMER that would need to be done to enable Phase II, not just software updates (which also have significant cost). There are many agencies that have recently purchased XTS series radios and there are many counties that are on 15 year replacement cycles for their equipment (Anoka County went live in 2005 and are just beginning to talk about replacement of their Spectra and XTS equipment). There are many resources that will have to remain Phase I such as interop talkgroups. There are many metro PSAPs that haven't even begun to apply for MCC7500 consoles (Edina, Minneapolis, St. Louis Park) and many that are having trouble getting the capital monies for migration (Ramsey Co, Dakota Co, Scott Co, Anoka Co, North EMS, White Bear Lake, East MRCC, Bloomington, Minnetonka, Carver Co, Ridgeview EMS, Metro Transit).
The only Metro entities that have migrated completely to MCC7500 or comparable are MSP, Mn/DOT, HCSO, Hennepin EMS, Allina EMS, Eden Prairie and MSP Airport. Paired with that, the only entities that have a completely APX or comparable portable and mobile fleet is Eden Prairie. Everyone has some late generation spectra's and XTS's floating around.
If it were to happen, I would suspect that we get at least 5 years of lead time on the issue.
We unfortunately are no longer in the world of unlimited money for fueled by HSEM fears.