New England: Next Hurricane threat?

[wesct]

I figure that everyone on this board should see this:

Threat of Major Hurricane Strike Grows for Northeast

AccuWeather...Hurricane Center | March 20, 2006 | by Joe Bastardi


"Weather Disaster of Historic Proportions" Could Strike as Early as This Year.

The northeast U.S. coast could be the target of a major hurricane, perhaps as
early as this season, according to research announced today by the AccuWeather
Hurricane Center.

"The Northeast is staring down the barrel of a gun," said Joe Bastardi, Chief
Forecaster...

"The Northeast coast is long overdue for a powerful hurricane...not a question
of if, but only when." ...

"If you examine past weather cycles that have occurred in the Atlantic, you
will see patterns of storms," added Ken Reeves, Expert Senior Meteorologist
and Director of Forecasting Operations ...

The current cycle and above-normal water temperatures are reminiscent of the
pattern that eventually produced the 1938 hurricane that struck Providence,
R.I...

The 1938 hurricane was the strongest tropical system to strike the north-
eastern U.S. in recorded history, with maximum gusts of 186 mph, a 15- to
20-foot storm surge and 25- to 50-foot waves that left much of Providence
under 10-15 feet of water.

Forecasters at AccuWeather.com say that patterns are similar to those of the
1930s, 40s and 50s when storms such as the 1938 hurricane, the 1944 Great
Atlantic Hurricanes and the Trio of 1954--Carol, Edna and Hazel--battered
the coast from the Carolinas to New England.

Because a hurricane of this magnitude has not made landfall in the north-
eastern U.S. in nearly 60 years, few Americans are even aware that hurri-
canes can and do directly impact this part of the country...

But the storm that struck Providence on Sept. 21, 1938, traveled northward
along the Gulf Stream and first made landfall in Westhampton, Long Island
before ripping a path across the island and continuing north to Rhode
Island.

That storm is still regarded as the greatest weather disaster in Long Island
history.


Special Thanks to Connecticut ARES for sharing this info....

wesct

[rpowley]

Hopefully that won't happen, but if it does, I'm sure the local, state, and federal governments will react and respond differently than they did last season. - Tough lessons learned -

[KB1JHU]

Psh... We can take it! Bring it mother nature!

[scancapecod]

Originally Posted by KB1JHU

Psh... We can take it! Bring it mother nature!

Um, I'd have to disagree with that invitation...I'd like to keep Cape Cod above water for a while.

Unfortunately we are long overdue here. The result in year after year of no storms, or relative duds like Bob, Edouard, Gloria, etc., create complacency among people, to the point where many will die if and when it happens. The lousy thing about Cape Cod is that if you're not flying a plane or sailing a boat, there's only two ways off!

Mother can stay away from here (and everywhere for that matter) as far as I'm concerned. She will undoubtedly have the last laugh, though.

[res2cue]

Oh great just finished putting up a new mast, Good thing it is teleiscopic and I can lower it if this every happens. Would it be to early to start filling sandbags? Good thing my home sits about 350' above sea level.

[N4UYV_Al]

We're in the Berkshires, we aint afraid of no stinking hurricanes!!! lol...The mountains here will rip 'em apart...

[Bill2k]

Did you already forget about the flooding during the summer and fall of 2005?

EDIT: Heres a reminder: http://berkshireeagle.mycapture.com/...081&thispage=1

[N4UYV_Al]

So we were inconvenienced by a few washed out roads....lol

[elk2370bruce]

Take a look at the highest population densities as related to elevation above mean sea level. Sure, a few washed out roads well inland in the Berkshires, along with some major urban removal from DC to Boston has been modeled for several years. Economic impact, infrastructure disruption, and loss of life that is beyond comprehension will be the result. Rely on FEMA or DHS -- it is to laugh. Take it from a professional disaster bum for far too many years. Swimming lessons for most of us and a wakeup call for state and local emergency management. Their "boiler plate" emergency plans are good for only one thing - sand bags.

[Bill2k]

We have been lucky in New England. Maybe we'll get a doozy of a storm this year.

[wesct]

Just a note about severe thunderstorms in New England:

This week is Severe Weather Preparedness Week in Southern New England. The National Weather Service in Taunton Massachusetts is issuing Public Information Statements on the characertistics of Severe Thunderstorms and Tornados along with safety measures against these severe weather threats. Statements are being issued on a daily basis from Monday through Friday. Below are the first three Public Information Statements as issued from NWS Taunton:



NOUS41 KBOX 031327

PNSBOX



PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

925 AM EDT WED MAY 3 2006



...SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK CONTINUES...

...DEFINITION OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS DECLARED THIS WEEK

AS SEVERE WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE

FOLLOWING IS THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF INFORMATIONAL STATEMENTS...

THE DEFINITION OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.



A 'SEVERE THUNDERSTORM' IS DEFINED AS A THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCES

WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 58 MPH AND/OR HAIL 0.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER OR

LARGER...THE SIZE OF A PENNY OR DIME. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND

OCCASIONALLY DO SPAWN TORNADOES.



A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER

IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHEN THE

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE...SUCH AS IN

TAUNTON...WHEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMMINENT BASED ON RADAR OR

ALREADY OCCURRING BASED ON SPOTTER OBSERVATIONS.



HOW ABOUT HEAVY RAIN? TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF RAIN THAT CAUSE

FLOODING...DAM BREAKS...ETC. ARE NOT PART OF THE DEFINITION OF

'SEVERE.' THEY WOULD CERTAINLY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF FLOOD OR FLASH

FLOOD WARNINGS...BUT NOT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS.



DOES FREQUENT LIGHTNING CONSTITUTE A 'SEVERE' THUNDERSTORM? THE FACT

IS THAT EVERY THUNDERSTORM HAS LIGHTNING -- IT IS THE RAPID

EXPANSION OF THE AIR HEATED TO 50,000 DEGREES CELSIUS THAT CAUSES

THE THUNDER IN THE FIRST PLACE. THUS...IF LIGHTNING WERE A CRITERIA

FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS...WE WOULD HAVE TO WARN FOR EVERY

THUNDERSTORM WHICH OBVIOUSLY WOULD NOT BE PRACTICAL OR ADVISABLE.

OF COURSE LIGHTNING CAN BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DEADLY. THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE SHORT TERM FORECASTS AND SPECIAL

WEATHER STATEMENTS REGARDING FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...BUT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS ARE RESERVED FOR THOSE STORMS THAT

PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL.



$$

GAF



NOUS41 KBOX 021526

PNSBOX



PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

1125 AM EDT TUE MAY 2 2006



...SEVERE WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK CONTINUES...

...TORNADO SAFETY...



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DECLARED THE WEEK OF MAY 1-5, 2006

AS SEVERE WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE

FOLLOWING IS THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF INFORMATIONAL STATEMENTS

ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER.



TORNADOES DO OCCUR IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALMOST EVERY YEAR AND

KNOWING WHAT TO DO IS ESSENTIAL.



A TORNADO WATCH IS ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN

OKLAHOMA WHENEVER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING

WINDS...SOME OF WHICH COULD SPAWN TORNADOES. THE WATCH OFTEN COVERS

SEVERAL STATES. IT IS YOUR INITIAL WORD THAT DANGEROUS WEATHER IS

POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT LARGE HAIL OR

DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR. ALTHOUGH TORNADOES CAN FORM WHEN ONLY A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE

CONDUCIVE TO FORMING TORNADOES IF WE ARE UNDER A TORNADO WATCH.



IF YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE...IN TAUNTON

MASSACHUSETTS FOR EXAMPLE...ISSUES A TORNADO WARNING...IMMEDIATE

ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. A TORNADO

WARNING MEANS THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS IN PROGRESS AND THAT A

TORNADO HAS EITHER BEEN SIGHTED OR IS IMMINENT BASED ON DOPPLER

RADAR IMAGERY.



YOUR FIRST TORNADO PREPAREDNESS RULE SHOULD BE TO HAVE A MEANS OF

RECEIVING THE WORD THAT A WATCH OR WARNING IS IN EFFECT. NOAA

WEATHER RADIO...WHICH CAN BE PURCHASED FROM YOUR FAVORITE

ELECTRONICS OUTLET...HAS AN ALARM FEATURE THAT WILL ACTIVATE

WHENEVER A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED. IT CAN WAKE

YOU UP AT 3 O'CLOCK IN THE MORNING AND THUS IS A TREMENDOUS

NOTIFICATION TOOL. LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION STATIONS WILL

BROADCAST THE WARNING...SOMETIMES WITH AN EMERGENCY ALERT TONE. THE

WARNINGS SCROLL ACROSS THE SCREEN ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL ON CABLE

TV. HOWEVER...YOU NEED TO BE WATCHING OR LISTENING IN ORDER TO

RECEIVE THE WARNING VIA COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TV. THAT'S WHY NOAA

WEATHER RADIO IS SO CONVENIENT.



THE GREATEST DANGERS FROM A TORNADO ARE FROM FLYING DEBRIS AND FROM

THE COLLAPSE OF THE ROOF AND/OR WALL STRUCTURE OF A BUILDING. IF IN

A BUILDING...YOU SHOULD MOVE TO THE BASEMENT UNDERNEATH THE

STAIRCASE. IF NO BASEMENT...SEEK SHELTER IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM OR

HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND EXTERIOR

DOORS. DO NOT OPEN THE WINDOWS. IF POSSIBLE...PLACE SOMETHING OVER

YOUR HEAD SUCH AS A COAT OR BLANKET FOR EXTRA PROTECTION. IN

SCHOOLS...AVOID THE CAFETERIA...GYMNASIUM...OR AUDITORIUM BECAUSE OF

THE WIDE-SPAN ROOFS THAT CAN COLLAPSE. YOU SHOULD GO TO THE

INTERIOR HALLWAY OUTSIDE OF THE CLASSROOMS.



DO NOT STAY IN A MOBILE HOME OR ANY TYPE OF TEMPORARY SHELTER. SEEK

SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE. IF NONE IS AVAILABLE...GO TO A DITCH

OR NEARBY RAVINE. TAKE THE PROTECTIVE POSITION ON YOUR ELBOWS AND

KNEES WITH YOUR HANDS OVER YOUR HEAD. NEVER ATTEMPT TO OUTRUN A

TORNADO IN A VEHICLE SINCE THEY CAN EASILY BECOME AIRBORNE. IN

1995...3 PEOPLE WERE KILLED IN GREAT BARRINGTON MASSACHUSETTS WHEN

THEIR AUTOMOBILE WAS LIFTED UP IN THE AIR AND SMASHED DOWN TO THE

GROUND. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER AN OVERPASS. THE STRUCTURAL

INTEGRITY OF OVERPASSES IS UNKNOWN...PLUS THE BERNOULLI PRINCIPLE

CAN LEAD TO ACCELERATION OF THE WIND THROUGH THE EMBANKMENT.



AFTER THE STORM...IF A TORNADO HAS STRUCK YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD...PLEASE

REPORT IT TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS FOR RELAY TO THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. TURN OFF THE GAS AT THE MAIN SWITCH TO

YOUR BUILDING. IF LIVE ELECTRICAL WIRES ARE DOWN...TURN OFF POWER

AT THE MAIN SWITCH. INSTRUCT PEOPLE NOT TO TOUCH LOOSE ELECTRICAL

WIRES. FOOD...CLOTHING...AND SHELTER WILL BECOME AVAILABLE AT

AMERICAN RED CROSS SHELTERS.



$$

FIELD



NOUS41 KBOX 011457

PNSBOX



PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

1055 AM EDT MON MAY 1 2006



...SEVERE WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK...

...DOWNBURST WINDS FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE POWERFUL...



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DECLARED THE WEEK OF MAY 1-5, 2006

AS SEVERE WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE

FOLLOWING IS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF INFORMATIONAL STATEMENTS ABOUT

SEVERE WEATHER.



WHILE NOT AS NOTORIOUS...OR PERHAPS AS SPECTACULAR TO WITNESS AS A

TORNADO...STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST THUNDERSTORM

WIND DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.



A DOWNBURST IS A STRONG AND RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF RAPIDLY

DESCENDING AIR BENEATH A THUNDERSTORM. IT CAN RESULT FROM STRONGER

JET STREAM WINDS BEING TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE. OR IT

CAN RESULT AS AIR WITHIN THE DOWNBURST IS COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY AS

RAIN EVAPORATES IN INITIALLY DRIER AIR. THIS COOL...THUS DENSE...

AIR SINKS RAPIDLY TO THE SURFACE. A DOWNBURST IS DIFFERENTIATED

FROM A COMMON THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFT BECAUSE THE WINDS IT PRODUCES

HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE DAMAGE ON OR NEAR THE GROUND. SURFACE

DAMAGE PATTERNS HAVE SHOWN THAT WHETHER THE WINDS ARE STRAIGHT OR A

LITTLE BIT CURVED...THEY TEND TO SPREAD OUT...OR DIVERGE...

CONSIDERABLY AS THEY REACH THE SURFACE. CONVERSELY...DAMAGE PATTERNS

RESULTING FROM A TORNADO GENERALLY CONVERGE TOWARD A NARROW CENTRAL

TRACK.



INTENSE DOWNBURSTS CAN BE PHENOMENAL. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CLOCKED AS

HIGH AS 175 MPH A FEW YEARS AGO NEAR MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA

AND AT 158 MPH AT ANDREWS AIR FORCE BASE IN MARYLAND IN 1986.

CLOSER TO HOME...104 MPH DOWNBURST WINDS WERE MEASURED AT BOTH

WORCESTER MASSACHUSETTS ON MAY 31 1998 AND WHITMAN MASSACHUSETTS ON

MAY 21 1996. STRONG DOWNBURSTS WILL DEFINITELY CAUSE ROARING SOUNDS

AND PEOPLE MAY OFTEN REFER TO A SOUND LIKE A FREIGHT TRAIN...TERMS

TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH DOWNBURSTS ARE NOT

TORNADOES...THEY CAN CAUSE DAMAGE EQUIVALENT TO THAT OF A SMALL TO

MEDIUM TORNADO. AFTER ALL...WIND IS WIND.



DOWNBURSTS ARE CLASSIFIED AS EITHER MACROBURSTS OR MICROBURSTS...

DEPENDING ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE DAMAGING WIND SWATH.

A MACROBURST/S DAMAGE EXTENDS HORIZONTALLY FOR MORE THAN 2.5 MILES.

A MICROBURST IS A SMALL DOWNBURST WITH ITS DAMAGING WINDS EXTENDING

2.5 MILES OR LESS. THE SMALL HORIZONTAL SCALE AND SHORT TIME SPAN

OF A MICROBURST MAKES IT PARTICULARLY HAZARDOUS TO AVIATION.



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS FOR

THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF

58 MPH OR GREATER...OR HAIL THAT IS THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH /0.75

INCHES/ OR GREATER IN DIAMETER.


Thanks to Nws in Taunton, Mass

wesct

[rdale]

Just as a note - the press release from AccuWeather really has no meteorology behind it, this was a ploy to get some airplay from the networks and online (and it worked.) No hurricane meteorologist believes that the NE is at any greater threat this year than any other.

And the same forecasters who came up with that one, also made a forecast last July that said the Gulf Coast was no longer at risk for a major hurricane - the rest of the season would primarily impact the northeast. Oops ;>

[daleduke17]

Didn't some agency say, several years ago, that the Memphis area was due "very soon, maybe this year" for an earthquake that would make the 1812 (or 1809, I forget) earthquake pale in comparison?

And the ones that said California (and Seattle) was due for another Northridge and San Francisco style quake VERY soon?

Yes, it is good to be prepared in case something happens, but, people are just getting their panties in a knot and making the general populace shriek in fear and freak out ala Dale Gribble from King of the Hill.

[elk2370bruce]

We've heard about the earthquake out west and the concept of Lost Angeles. Now we get the DC to Boston Beach. Urban removal at its finest.

[wesct]

heres a link to the original story

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotio...aw&page=nehurr

and check this one out:

http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/2005records.htm

love that Rhode Island stuff!

wesct

[cellblock776]

A couple of friends who lost their home to Katrina in Mississippi said that a FEMA official told them not to beleive the media hype about the threat of hurricanes. Sure hurricanes are bad but they give a bit of warning before striking an area. The FEMA guy says the number 1 thing they are worried about is a major quake along the New Madrid fault. When that thing lets go Katrinia will look like a picnic. Little or no warning and major damage through several large population centers.

[rdale]

True - but what is more likely next year: A major terrorist attack, a Cat 5 hurricane, or the Madrid earthquake? Obviously choice #2. So what should FEMA be preparing for? #2. What do they prepare for? #1. So 2 & 3 are almost completely ignored...

[wesct]

noaa released current predictions for the 2006 hurricane season:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/out...urricane.shtml

wesct

[wesct]

more news for the upcoming season:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
142 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2006
...TODAY MARKS THE START OF THE 2006 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON RUNS FROM JUNE 1ST THROUGH NOVEMBER
30TH. IN AN AVERAGE SEASON...10 TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH 6 OF THESE REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY.
THE OFFICIAL NOAA 2006 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK INDICATES
AN 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AN ABOVE NORMAL SEASON AND A 15 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF A NEAR NORMAL SEASON. THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR 13-16
TROPICAL STORMS...WITH 8-10 LIKELY TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY...
AND 4-6 OF THESE TO BECOME MAJOR HURRICANES /CATEGORY 3 OR HIGHER/.
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE NOAA 2006 HURRICANE OUTLOOK PLEASE
VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT...URRICANE.SHTML
/IN LOWERCASE/
THE NAMES USED FOR THE 2006 SEASON WILL BE...
NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
------------------------------------------------------------
ALBERTO AL-BAIR-TOE LESLIE LEZ-LEE
BERYL BER-RIL MICHAEL MIKE-EL
CHRIS KRIS NADINE NAY-DEEN
DEBBY DEB-EE OSCAR AHS-KUR
ERNESTO ER-NES-TOE PATTY PAT-EE
FLORENCE FLOR-ENTS RAFAEL RAH-FAY-EL
GORDON GOR-DUN SANDY SAN-DEE
HELENE HE-LEEN TONY TOE-NEE
ISAAC EYE-ZAK VALERIE VAL-ER-EE
JOYCE JOIS WILLIAM WILL-YAM
KIRK KURK
TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE CERTAINLY NO STRANGERS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
SINCE 1900 A TOTAL OF 47 TROPICAL SYSTEMS HAVE IMPACTED SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. SOME BROUGHT JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
RAIN AND WIND...WHILE OTHERS HAVE BROUGHT TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH
FLOODING...DEVASTATING STORM SURGES AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS.
FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THIS SEASON MARKS THE 52ND ANNIVERSARY OF
ONE OF THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE SEASONS IN OUR HISTORY...THE
SUMMER OF 1954. THE 1954 SEASON BROUGHT NEW ENGLAND MAJOR
HURRICANES CAROL AND EDNA. THESE POWERFUL CATEGORY 3 HURRICANES
STRUCK JUST 11 DAYS APART...WITH CAROL ARRIVING ON AUGUST 31ST...
FOLLOWED BY EDNA ON SEPTEMBER 11TH. THESE TWO STORMS COMBINED TO
PRODUCE MILLIONS OF DOLLARS WORTH OF DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND
THE BOATING INDUSTRY...AS WELL AS CLAIMING DOZENS OF LIVES DUE TO
STORM SURGE AND RIVER RELATED FLOODING.
CAROL AND EDNA WERE THE LAST MAJOR HURRICANES TO HAVE STRUCK OUR
REGION. AS THE 2006 SEASON BEGINS...NOW IS AN EXCELLENT TIME TO
BEGIN YOUR OWN PREPARATIONS. YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD
LIKE TO SUGGEST THESE HELPFUL MEASURES. TAKING A FEW MOMENTS NOW WILL
SAVE MUCH NEEDED TIME SHOULD A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE TAKE AIM
AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS SEASON.
COASTAL RESIDENTS
- NEVER PLAN YOUR ACTIONS ON THE ANTICIPATED TIME OF LANDFALL.
TYPICALLY IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL MAKE ANY TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR PREPARATION
WORK DANGEROUS AS MUCH AS 15 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE EYE OF THE
STORM.
- REMEMBER THAT MOST TROPICAL SYSTEMS APPROACHING OUR REGION WILL
ACCELERATE DRAMATICALLY. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE TIME YOU
HAVE TO PREPARE. BUILD EXTRA TIME INTO YOUR PLAN OF ACTION.
- NEVER STEP OUTSIDE DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE EYE. THE OFTEN
CALM CONDITIONS WILL BE RAPIDLY REPLACED BY A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AND A RETURN TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.
- KNOW YOUR EVACUATION ROUTES AND THE PROPER SHELTERS FOR YOUR
AREA. CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL TOWN HALL TO SEE IF YOU ARE IN AN
EVACUATION ZONE.
- MOST SHELTERS WILL NOT ALLOW PETS. MAKE ARRANGEMENTS AHEAD OF
TIME FOR A PLACE FOR YOUR PETS TO STAY. SOME ANIMAL HOSPITALS
OFFER TO KEEP PETS UNTIL YOU ARE ABLE TO RETURN HOME.
- KNOW WHERE YOUR GAS AND WATER SHUTOFFS ARE. IT IS ESSENTIAL
THAT YOU TURN OFF BOTH YOUR GAS AND WATER BEFORE YOU LEAVE YOUR
HOME.
- IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO HEAD TO A SHELTER...MAKE ARRANGEMENTS NOW
WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS IF YOU WISH TO STAY WITH THEM SHOULD
YOU NEED TO EVACUATE.
THE MARINE COMMUNITY
- INSPECT YOUR LINES AT THE START OF THE SEASON. IF YOU ARE
ANCHORED IN A MOORING FIELD...INSPECT THE CHAIN BETWEEN YOUR
PENNANT AND THE MOORING. SALT WATER BEGINS TO CORRODE THESE
CHAINS AFTER JUST 2 SEASONS IN THE WATER. BUT THIS IS OFTEN
UNSEEN BY THE BOAT OWNER.
- BOAT OWNERS SHOULD HAVE ALL THE NECESSARY GEAR ON BOARD TO
PROPERLY TIE DOWN THEIR VESSEL. YOU WILL LOSE PRECIOUS TIME IF
YOU HAVE TO RUSH AROUND SEARCHING FOR GEAR WHEN A STORM IS
APPROACHING.
- REALIZE THAT YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO PULL YOUR BOAT OUT OF THE
WATER BEFORE A STORM THREATENS. YOUR ONLY ALTERNATIVE WILL BE TO
TIE THE VESSEL DOWN.
- HAVE A PLAN WORKED OUT WITH THE MARINA OPERATOR SO THERE ARE NO
QUESTIONS OR ANY CONFUSION WHEN THE TIME COMES TO TIE UP OR PULL
THE BOAT OUT OF THE WATER.
- BE SURE TO TAKE PICTURES AND MAKE A WRITTEN DESCRIPTION OF THE
VESSEL...SO THAT THIS MAY BE USED AFTER THE STORM PASSES FOR
INSURANCE PURPOSES.
- ENSURE THAT YOUR VESSEL IS AS WATERTIGHT AS POSSIBLE.
- WHEN YOU ARE THROUGH...HELP YOUR NEIGHBOR. IT ONLY TAKES ONE
POORLY TIED BOAT IN A MARINA TO DESTROY THE ENTIRE DOCK.
INLAND RESIDENTS
- BE SURE TO HAVE PLENTY OF BATTERIES ON HAND FOR FLASHLIGHTS...
AM/FM RADIOS...AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO. MORE OFTEN THAN NOT
POWER WILL BE DISRUPTED DURING THE STORM AND MAY BE DISRUPTED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.
- BE SURE TO HAVE CANNED FOOD AND OTHER ITEMS ON HAND THAT DO NOT
NEED REFRIGERATION. AS STATED ABOVE...IT IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY
THAT ELECTRICAL AND TELEPHONE SYSTEMS WILL BE DISRUPTED IF A
HURRICANE STRIKES OUR REGION.
- IF YOU OWN A PORTABLE GENERATOR...BE SURE IT IS PROPERLY HOOKED
INTO THE POWER SUPPLY. IF IT IS NOT PROPERLY INSTALLED...IT MAY
DO DAMAGE TO THE MAIN POWER SUPPLY.
- STORE PLYWOOD AND PLENTY OF NAILS SO THAT YOU CAN QUICKLY BOARD
UP WINDOWS ON OPEN FACING SIDES OF YOUR HOME. DO NOT USE MASKING
TAPE TO TAPE WINDOWS...IT WILL NOT HELP.
- THOSE LIVING ALONG FLOOD PRONE RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD BE READY
TO HEAD TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING OCCUR.
- IN CASE OF THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT YOU MUST EVACUATE...KNOW
WHERE YOUR NEAREST STORM SHELTER IS LOCATED...AND THE QUICKEST
ROUTE TO IT.
FOLLOWING THESE SIMPLE STEPS WILL HELP MAKE WHAT CAN BE A VERY
STRESSFUL AND DIFFICULT TIME GO A BIT MORE SMOOTHLY.
$$
BELK/NWS TAUNTON
000
ABNT20 KNHC 020207
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUN 01 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30TH. THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2006 IS AS
FOLLOWS:
NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALBERTO AL BAIR- TOE LESLIE
BERYL BER- IL MICHAEL
CHRIS NADINE NAY DEEN-
DEBBY OSCAR
ERNESTO ER NES- TOE PATTY
FLORENCE RAFAEL RA FA EL-
GORDON SANDY
HELENE HE LEEN- TONY
ISAAC EYE- ZAK VALERIE
JOYCE WILLIAM
KIRK
THE GREEK ALPHABET...ALPHA...BETA...GAMMA...ETC...IS USED SHOULD THE
STANDARD LIST OF NAMES BE EXHAUSTED...AS IT WAS LAST YEAR. IN
2005...A RECORD 28 STORMS FORMED...INCLUDING AN UNNAMED OCTOBER
SUBTROPICAL STORM THAT WAS ADDED TO THE OFFICIAL LIST IN APRIL. THE
LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...
AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11...6...AND 2...RESPECTIVELY. THE NOAA
SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR 2006 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS OF ACTIVITY.
THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...IS ISSUED FOUR TIMES A
DAY...AT 530 AM...1130 AM...530 PM AND 1030 PM EASTERN TIME. IT
BRIEFLY DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM FORMATION.
A SEPARATE PRODUCT...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT...
MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE STRONG...FORMATIVE
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NOT YET REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS. THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT IS ISSUED UNDER
THE WMO HEADER WONT41 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAAT.
A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A NEW PRODUCT...THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES...IN PLACE OF THE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING
TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE
ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR
TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
AN ADDITIONAL PRODUCT...OF WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS FAMILIAR...IS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF
STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR
TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO
PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL
CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND
UNDER WMO HEADERS WTNT61 KNHC THROUGH WTNT65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCUAT1 THROUGH MIATCUAT5.
FORECASTER BEVEN

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