• Effective immediately we will be deleting, without notice, any negative threads or posts that deal with the use of encryption and streaming of scanner audio.

    We've noticed a huge increase in rants and negative posts that revolve around agencies going to encryption due to the broadcasting of scanner audio on the internet. It's now worn out and continues to be the same recycled rants. These rants hijack the threads and derail the conversation. They no longer have a place anywhere on this forum other than in the designated threads in the Rants forum in the Tavern.

    If you violate these guidelines your post will be deleted without notice and an infraction will be issued. We are not against discussion of this issue. You just need to do it in the right place. For example:
    https://forums.radioreference.com/rants/224104-official-thread-live-audio-feeds-scanners-wait-encryption.html

Dow 20,000

Status
Not open for further replies.
Joined
Jul 13, 2004
Messages
1,854
Location
Burlington County, NJ
#42
I don't see QE ending until after the 2016 election, if then. It may decrease slightly over time, but the Dems don't want an economic collapse as people go the polls. That includes factors of the unemployment rate (Including the components of the longterm unemployed and those who have dropped out of the job hunt), and a GDP growth rate that has now turned negative (don't believe stories that -2.9% was due to weather). Unless the USA becomes more energy independent (can you say pipeline), oil and gas price increases due to production problems in Iraq, Libya and Nigeria will put (are now putting) the cost of living squeeze on households. Dems will have to spin the stories to survive. I just don't see the Fed Board of Governors taking any actions to haste a slide to oblivion under O's watch. Bottom line: post-2016 election at the earliest. My $0.02 FWIW. :)
 
Joined
Jul 13, 2004
Messages
1,854
Location
Burlington County, NJ
#44
I've been reading some outlook reports for the last half of 2014 from a number of what I consider to be reliable sources. Most papers suggest QE will continue, albeit at a lower level, into 2017. That said, the last thing I would do is rotate to all cash.

Whereas savings account and bond interest rates are incredibly low, I'd prefer to collect a ~4+ % dividend from a large cap blue chip that generates sufficient cash flows to pay investors and have something for R&D. (The last time the local bank offered me a deal to roll over a CD, the offer was 0.5% for a 5 year renewal. I declined.)

There are some ways to make some.extra money, but that's another thread. I'm just trying to protect retirement without getting nailed by cost of living and inflation rates. YMMV.
 
Joined
Jul 13, 2004
Messages
1,854
Location
Burlington County, NJ
#51
I don't see Portugal mentioned in your post, but, no, long term effect 8 the market. In fact there was quite a recovery off today's lows after the European markets closed
 
Joined
Aug 18, 2010
Messages
1,133
Location
Peoria, IL
#54
Correction Done?

Sorry to revive a old thread but I wanted to mention that the Dow kinda came close to 20,000 when it hit 17,350. When it went down 852 points in five days I think that was the correction. Do you guys think the correction is done and it is up from here?
 
Joined
Jul 13, 2004
Messages
1,854
Location
Burlington County, NJ
#55
Judging from what I read, if I understand it correctly, we haven't hit a low yet. 3Q earning reports are coming out; 4Q guidance is conservative. Factors affecting the decline in the Dow and S&P are more likely caused by the weakness in the European and Japanese markets, the geopolitical messes, and the weakness in oil prices. A 10% correction may even help the markets in the long run. The Fed's QE plans have been affected. More than a few fund managers are behind the 8-ball; playing catch up will roil the market sectors as the year closes out.

Some think the 2014 markets peaked with the $BABA IPO.

The wide swings in the averages are madness. For me, daily and momentum trading is dangerous and akin to gambling. Buying large caps for the longer term at decent PEs and dividends is always interesting. But I am certainly not panic selling current holdings.

I expect a sideways movement and sector rotation in the market, some gyrations for tax loss selling in December, and a slow upward trend in 2015. Wouldn't be surprised to see some good buying opportunities on dips in December.

Ebola and ISIS -- and Washington's responses -- could change everything.

YMMV.
 
Joined
Aug 18, 2010
Messages
1,133
Location
Peoria, IL
#56
Judging from what I read, if I understand it correctly, we haven't hit a low yet. 3Q earning reports are coming out; 4Q guidance is conservative. Factors affecting the decline in the Dow and S&P are more likely caused by the weakness in the European and Japanese markets, the geopolitical messes, and the weakness in oil prices. A 10% correction may even help the markets in the long run. The Fed's QE plans have been affected. More than a few fund managers are behind the 8-ball; playing catch up will roil the market sectors as the year closes out.

Some think the 2014 markets peaked with the $BABA IPO.

The wide swings in the averages are madness. For me, daily and momentum trading is dangerous and akin to gambling. Buying large caps for the longer term at decent PEs and dividends is always interesting. But I am certainly not panic selling current holdings.

I expect a sideways movement and sector rotation in the market, some gyrations for tax loss selling in December, and a slow upward trend in 2015. Wouldn't be surprised to see some good buying opportunities on dips in December.

Ebola and ISIS -- and Washington's responses -- could change everything.

YMMV.
Intersting. Thank you for your thoughts :D. Futures were pointing lower this morning.
 
Joined
Jul 13, 2004
Messages
1,854
Location
Burlington County, NJ
#57
I think there is too much nonsense going on, plus fallout from the USA mid-term elections in two weeks, to really expect futures to be really meaningful as 2014 comes to a close. The recent ~200 point intraday swings can drive one to drink if trying to trading them. But that's me.
 
Joined
Aug 18, 2010
Messages
1,133
Location
Peoria, IL
#58
I think there is too much nonsense going on, plus fallout from the USA mid-term elections in two weeks, to really expect futures to be really meaningful as 2014 comes to a close. The recent ~200 point intraday swings can drive one to drink if trying to trading them. But that's me.
I agree about the futures. One day last week the futures said up 83 or 85 points and then it went down 334 points at the close. Never know what will happen with it.
 

flythunderbird

Member
Premium Subscriber
Joined
Oct 1, 2012
Messages
1,002
Location
Grid square EM99fh
#59
Judging from what I read, if I understand it correctly, we haven't hit a low yet. 3Q earning reports are coming out; 4Q guidance is conservative. Factors affecting the decline in the Dow and S&P are more likely caused by the weakness in the European and Japanese markets, the geopolitical messes, and the weakness in oil prices. A 10% correction may even help the markets in the long run. The Fed's QE plans have been affected. More than a few fund managers are behind the 8-ball; playing catch up will roil the market sectors as the year closes out.

Some think the 2014 markets peaked with the $BABA IPO.
Back in March, I shifted my 401k out of a stock fund and into a bond fund which tracks the Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index(Treasuries, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed bonds, and government agency bonds). The stock fund returned 21% last year, and I had a feeling stocks were setting themselves up for turbulence. The bond fund has returned about 6.3% so far this year, whereas the stock funds have been flat to negative. Sometimes you just have to go with your gut ...

As for corrections, I think that if Europe tanks again, we're looking at a minimum of 15% ...
 
Joined
Aug 18, 2010
Messages
1,133
Location
Peoria, IL
#60
Back in March, I shifted my 401k out of a stock fund and into a bond fund which tracks the Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index(Treasuries, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed bonds, and government agency bonds). The stock fund returned 21% last year, and I had a feeling stocks were setting themselves up for turbulence. The bond fund has returned about 6.3% so far this year, whereas the stock funds have been flat to negative. Sometimes you just have to go with your gut ...

As for corrections, I think that if Europe tanks again, we're looking at a minimum of 15% ...
Do you think the Dow will hit a new 52 week high?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top