• Effective immediately we will be deleting, without notice, any negative threads or posts that deal with the use of encryption and streaming of scanner audio.

    We've noticed a huge increase in rants and negative posts that revolve around agencies going to encryption due to the broadcasting of scanner audio on the internet. It's now worn out and continues to be the same recycled rants. These rants hijack the threads and derail the conversation. They no longer have a place anywhere on this forum other than in the designated threads in the Rants forum in the Tavern.

    If you violate these guidelines your post will be deleted without notice and an infraction will be issued. We are not against discussion of this issue. You just need to do it in the right place. For example:
    https://forums.radioreference.com/rants/224104-official-thread-live-audio-feeds-scanners-wait-encryption.html

EXPERTS PREDICT A LONG, DEEP SOLAR MINIMUM

Joined
Jul 13, 2004
Messages
1,753
Location
Burlington County, NJ
#1
"If you like solar minimum, good news: It could last for years. That was one of the predictions issued last week by an international panel of experts who gathered at NOAA's annual Space Weather Workshop to forecast the next solar cycle. If the panel is correct, already-low sunspot counts will reach a nadir sometime between July 2019 and Sept 2020, followed by a slow recovery toward a new Solar Maximum in 2023-2026."

Spaceweather.com Time Machine

Time to learn how to DX the graylline on 160m. :)
 
Joined
Jul 13, 2004
Messages
1,753
Location
Burlington County, NJ
#2
"Scientists predicting the sun's activity for Solar Cycle 25 say it's likely to be much like that of current Cycle 24, which is declining and predicted to bottom out in 2019 or 2020. Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel experts said Solar Cycle 25 may get off to a slow start, but is anticipated to peak between 2023 and 2026 with a sunspot range of 95 to 130. This is well below the typical average of 140 to 220 sunspots per solar cycle."

ARRL Letter

And the referenced NOAA workshop has a webpage 2019 Space Weather Workshop - 1-5 April, 2019 | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center here but the conference notes from whence the above originated haven't been been updated yet. When you read this after today, Aoril 11, check the page to see what NOAA posted.
 

KB4MSZ

Member
Premium Subscriber
Joined
Mar 12, 2018
Messages
239
Location
Tampa, Florida
#5
Figures.

I return to Ham radio after a 30 year absence and this is the reward. I guess if I was a sailor coming out of retirement I would find the seas all evaporated.
 

N4GIX

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Premium Subscriber
Joined
May 27, 2015
Messages
1,727
Location
Hammond, IN
#6
Is solar minimum a good thing for monitoring HF frequencies or a bad thing?
It is most assuredly a "Bad Thing". Propagation on HF is already pretty much crap as it is. The only good thing is that they are not predicting another Maunder Minimum for the next cycle.

On the other hand that doesn't mean the bands are "dead". 40m and 20m are pretty busy on weekends, but during the week they are virtually deserted.

There are at least six state QSO parties on 40m this afternoon. I just made two contacts while typing this reply... :cool:
 
Joined
Sep 8, 2006
Messages
2,767
Location
Stockholm, Sweden
#7
As I understand the weather types dictate how radiosignals can bounce between different temperatured layers of air close to earth for the short range, like neighbouring states, communications at different frequencies and are unaffected by a solar minimum. There are charts that are used for HF communications, from ships and airplanes, that state what frequencies should be used at different times of the day to use those temperature differencies to your advantage to reach a certain distance by bouncing the radiowaves off the temperature layers.

The amount of energy from the suns eruptions and sun spots sends particals to earth that have an impact of the very high layers in the inosphere that starts to work much more as a radio signal deflector as it normally does. Short wave signals that normally goes out in space are reflected back to earth and strong signals can bounce off earth back up again to the inosphere and back down again, making it possible for radio waves to go around earth so you will hear your own tranmissions with a one second delay.

/Ubbe
 

ka3jjz

Wiki Admin Emeritus
Joined
Jul 22, 2002
Messages
21,622
Location
Bowie, Md.
#10
While it's true that some earth based weather can affect HF propagation - thunderstorms and thundersnow will increase noise levels - this sad prediction means that, under nominal conditions, the lower HF bands are going to be better for the foreseeable future. Now that doesn't mean that the higher bands - say 25 meters and up - will be dead. That's certainly not the case, but they won't be as easy for any long range DX as they had been in the past when solar conditions were a bit better. Any solar hiccups like a rare flare or a coronal hole could stir things up for a time and perhaps make the higher bands better, but it won't last.

We're unfortunately at the mercy of Sol, and I'm afraid it has no concern for us DXers (heh)
 
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Jul 13, 2004
Messages
1,753
Location
Burlington County, NJ
#12
Joined
Sep 2, 2012
Messages
788
#14
As a MW DXer primarily, this extended dip should theoretically be good for MW but in reality the conditions have been poorer than they were in 2012 when sunspots were higher.

I think the solar radiation has dipped a hair. The leaves on the trees in my area are a week late. They were late last year as well.
 
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