Public Severe Weather Outlook

[Thunderbolt]

[font=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

VALID 121712Z - 130115Z

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW VIOLENT....LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTHEASTERN IOWA
WESTERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN KANSAS
MOST OF MISSOURI

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE MID SOUTH AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY

A VOLATILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SITUATION IS UNFOLDING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND JET MAX WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST SURFACE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON. WE
EXPECT THAT SEVERAL AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MISSOURI/EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN IOWA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT. SUPERCELLS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG DRY LINE EASTERN KS AND EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI
VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RACE
EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY VIOLENT...LONG
TRACK TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

OTHER POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALONG A DRY LINE EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THESE WILL SPREAD A THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING DAMAGING TORNADOES...ACROSS ARKANSAS
INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HALES.. 03/12/2006 [/font]
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[Thunderbolt]

(PDS) Tornado Watch 73

Just out from the NWS SPC...

[font=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 73...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

CORRECTED FOR WATCH REPLACEMENTS

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN KANSAS
MOST OF MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 1000
PM CST.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF EMPORIA
KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 69...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER
70...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 71...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH NUMBER 72. WATCH NUMBER 69 70 71 72 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1155 AM CST.

DISCUSSION...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A PARTICULARLY INTENSE UPPER TROUGH
AND JET STREAM MOVING INTO CENTRAL U.S. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE
HAIL...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING LONG TRACK TORNADOES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL INITIATE VICINITY OF
DRY LINE ERN KS AND ADDITIONALLY VICINITY WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS MO INTO IL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

...HALES
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