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Solar Cycle Outlook

pjxii

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simpilo

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Moot. I don't believe any of it. They try too hard to make sense of something they don't fully understand. Heck I don't understand it. One thing I am sure of...The sun always follows a roller coaster pattern. Never flat lines until the end of it's life. It's a active star! Humanity seems to favor the worse news in all things. This seems to be one of them doomsday prophecies so to speak! I don't care nor do I have to believe everything the most educated scientists try to convince people. Also, how do we know that those sights aren't just telling a story? I believe what the sun does not what scientists want us to believe. Earth science is more believable!
 

Boombox

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Like I've mentioned before, I trust the solar scientists, who have access to all the data. Although humanity favors the worst -- look at the dire global warming predictions -- that doesn't negate the science, which shows that the climate is indeed warming. It may be the same with solar predictions.

Here's another article put out by NOAA on the prospects of the next solar cycle being similar to the last one. Which, in itself, wouldn't be all that bad. I was able to hear a lot of new stations on MW during the last cycle, and SW was decent as well.
Solar experts predict the Sun’s activity in Solar Cycle 25 to be below average, similar to Solar Cycle 24
 

pjxii

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Thanks for that link, BB, good read.

I agree that the last solar cycle was not bad, even for HF. A repeat of that would be a joy after this low that we're in right now. Surprisingly, this is the first time I've experienced a cycle low, as over the decades I've been in and out of the hobby and had always been listening during the peak years.

I would have loved to been alive and listening in the late 1950s when the SSN was going over 200!
 

simpilo

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Consider the points this article makes. All these predictions are only speculations. All they have are toroidal models that cannot produce sunspots. Some models are dubious. Some models made by scientist who have no education in astrophysics. A real headache. The admitted they dont have enough to know make a reliable and accurate model!

READ Scientists tackle a burning question: When will our quiet sun turn violent?
 

Boombox

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Thanks for that link, BB, good read.

I agree that the last solar cycle was not bad, even for HF. A repeat of that would be a joy after this low that we're in right now. Surprisingly, this is the first time I've experienced a cycle low, as over the decades I've been in and out of the hobby and had always been listening during the peak years.

I would have loved to been alive and listening in the late 1950s when the SSN was going over 200!
I remember the one during 88-92 fairly well. There was a lot of activity high in the bands. Even VHF Low Band was hot at this higher latitude. A quad loop cut for 11 meters and a Radio Shack Patrolman SW60 and I was hearing oil rigs in Louisiana. Very cool.
 

DaveNF2G

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The science must match the observations and not the desires of the funding sources. Forget about anthropogenic global warming and dark matter. They don't exist. Sunspot cycles do and grand minima have been recorded throughout human history.

BTW, Cycle 25 appears to be starting with a new spot at high southern latitude today.
 

simpilo

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The science must match the observations and not the desires of the funding sources. Forget about anthropogenic global warming and dark matter. They don't exist. Sunspot cycles do and grand minima have been recorded throughout human history.

BTW, Cycle 25 appears to be starting with a new spot at high southern latitude today.
Yes it has been numbered AR2744. Here is today's most recent Synpotic Map and for some reason spaceweather.com isn't stating it. I guess because they give it 24 hours to see if it sinks. I will say we are officially in SC25..There were no sunspots anywhere on the sun for quite a while. I have looked at the magnetic field and it is turning toroidal slightly. Still some poloroidal magnetic lines. It very well could sink.
This is the SECOND Cycle 25 spot this month. Just 6 days ago a cycle 25 sunspot formed on July 1. Thats actually twice in one week! Transition to SC25 is here!!!
solarcycle25.PNGsynoptic-map.jpg

Quoted from http:/www.spaceweather.com
ANOTHER SUNSPOT FROM THE NEXT SOLAR CYCLE: The next solar cycle is producing sunspots, and the pace is picking up. For the second time this month, a sunspot from Solar Cycle 25 has emerged in the sun's southern hemisphere. The growing spot is inset in this magnetic map of the sun's surface made by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory on July 7th:
Southern sunspots from old Solar Cycle 24 have a -/+ polarity. This sunspot is the opposite: +/-. According to Hale's Law, sunspots switch polarities from one solar cycle to the next. This sunspot is therefore a herald of Solar Cycle 25.
Other factors also mark this as a new-cycle sunspot. For one thing, it has the high latitude (27S) typical of sunspots in the early stages of an emerging solar cycle. For another, the sunspot is tilted. According to Joy's Law, high-latitude, new-cycle spot groups almost always have this property.
Solar cycles always mix together at their boundaries. Right now we are experiencing the tail end of decaying Solar Cycle 24. Today's sunspot suggests that we are also experiencing the first stirrings of Solar Cycle 25.
Shortlived sunspots belonging to Solar Cycle 25 have already been reportedon Dec. 20, 2016; April 8, 2018; Nov. 17, 2018; May 28 2019 and July 1, 2019. Now we can add July 7, 2019, to list. The quickening pace of new-cycle spots in 2019 confirms that the transition between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 25 is underway.
 
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simpilo

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Took them a while to get the PFSS images online. Now we can see the toroidal effect during the current onset of Cycle 25. Click the image to see full view. its a 2048px image Thats what they are talking about toroidal. Becoming less and less poloroidal. This cycle is ramping up faster than the previous which means predictions could be moot.
This image is also used to see CME's.
latest_2048_0193pfss.jpg

Now take a look at this next image. This image is what they use to see flares. Take notice flares on both limbs of the sun are at high latitudes on both northern and southern hemispheres. Far less flaring at the equatorial zone. Those are active regions popping up in new cycle latitudes. Intensity over amount. This is Joy's Law in action. This also supports the rate at which the sun wants to get really angry. This image is 1024px.
latest_1024_0304pfss.jpg
 
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DaveNF2G

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Polarity is not the sole indicator of cycle membership. What was the solar latitude of the July 1 spot?
 

simpilo

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Polarity is not the sole indicator of cycle membership. What was the solar latitude of the July 1 spot?
I have it circled in the image. NASA always timestamps their images. Looks pretty close to AR2744 latitude further west in longitutde. this one exhibits Hale's Law. There was no tilting for it to be Joy's Law.
20190701_000000_1024_HMIBC.jpg

Courtesy of https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
 
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DaveNF2G

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Yep, that looks high enough. Not sure why some of the sources are calling the July 7 spot the "first".
 

simpilo

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Yep, that looks high enough. Not sure why some of the sources are calling the July 7 spot the "first".
I don't know for sure. I will guess and say it's the first to exhibit Joy's law as for SC25 sunspots.

For some more evidence of SC25 firing up I looked at today's HMI image at JSOC's website which is just SDO's HMI image. I noticed a new active region firing up even higher latitude. It is not a sunspot. Could be one later. I wouldn't know. As far as my eye can tell it is merely a active region at high latitude. The trend of active regions and sunspots are suggesting at such latitude, SC25 is definetly here. Active regions can be anywhere on the sun for that matter but this is more distinct because of where AR2744 formed then these other 3 popped up. Again none of these today are spots these are only active regions that appear bright.
activeregions.png
 

simpilo

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Region 12744 was a sunspot last Monday, July 7. It dissipated, but still had energy to re-emerge. Still a cycle 25 region. I am calling it a sunspot. I wonder how much time it takes for NASA SWPC to notice. It is typical for them to do this early in a cycle. They won't last long until the cycle ramps up.

HMI Colorized Intensity
latest_2048_HMIIF.jpg

HMI Colorized Magnetogram
latest_2048_HMIBC.jpg


Just 5 hours ago it was not a sunspot. I am showing you the sun's magnetic field. Much of it is a slight toroid. Still plenty of polaroidal field. Will be that way a while while it's magnetic field is twisting. Will look like a coil sometime.

HMI Magnetogram. In this image White is Positive and Black is Negative.
latest_2048_HMIBpfss.jpg
 
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jwt873

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Hopefully cycle 25 reverses a trend... If not, it could be a real dud. The peaks have been declining steadily over the last four cycles. The first graph below shows the last 4 cycles and the other shows the last two in detail:

forcast-4.jpgforcast-2.jpg
 

simpilo

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Could be in a few months or next June. Never know. I was looking through NGC, Solar Synoptic maps history and 22 years ago in September Cycle 23 was already firing up. 11 years ago the sun looked fairly close to today's Solar Synoptic map. The sun is all the time changing. We can't limit the sun to the last 3 cycles. All we can do is wait and see what it does. SDO, STEREO A & B satellites only produce color images (temperatures in kelvin) and images of magnetic activity. Definitive evidence requires getting up close and personal with the sun. Nothing can withstand it's heat. All it is is guess work.

I am certainly not holding the sun to any man-made predictions.
 

Boombox

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The sun, like every astronomical body, is cyclical. Just as stars have a cycle of birth and death, they obviously have other cycles, of variance of output. That much we do know. Figuring out the ins and outs of these cycles is the issue.

Either way, none of this matters. What will matter is when I turn my radio on in five years, will it be better on HF and MW than it is today -- I think it's fairly guaranteed that it will be an improvement over the way it is now.
 

simpilo

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New Cycle 25 regions appeared. They are unnumbered. Still Region 12744 lives but not quite a sunspot. Neither are the new regions that appeared. Date and timestamp low left hand corner.
fullbc.jpg
Courtesy of BBSO- Big Bear Solar Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Technology Big Bear Solar Observatory
 

simpilo

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The high northern latitude spot would be a Cycle 24 leftover.
SDO images didnt even show it on the HMI Intensitygram colored/flatten image. Big Bear Observatory is using a different type of imaging that isnt quite as good as the SDO and Stereo space craft images. That image would confuse people. It isnt a HMI-Intensitygram colored nor flattened. It is a H-alpha image BBSO is using. I suppose they have to use H-Alpha filtering due to it being ground based telescope observatory having to fight the elements of during sun light.

They aren't very active. Maybe A to C class flares. SDO HMI Magnetogram showed them as Cycle 25 polarity. They are all gone except for old region 12744 which persists at the same high latitude at the southwest limb. One thing I cant find is SDO PFSS history to compare what the magnetic fields look like during minimum to start to minimum. Top priority for me is compare PFSS image during minimum to start of solar cycles.
latest_1024_HMIBC.jpg

Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_HMIBC.jpg
 
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