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X-flare may impact propagation Jul 14.

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#1
Just got this which may affect propagation... and I would like to see aurora again at 40N.

"EARTH-DIRECTED X-FLARE: Big sunspot AR1520 erupted on July 12th around 16:53 UT, producing an X-class solar flare and hurling a CME directly toward Earth. Forecasters expect the cloud to arrive on July 14th. Its impact could spark moderate to severe geomagnetic storms, allowing auroras to be seen at lower latitudes than usual. Check SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids for more information and updates."

HTH. :eek:
 
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It depends.

The different types of radiation and particles that the sun emits have different effects on different parts of the earth's upper atmosphere, mangnetic field and frequency ranges at different times.

It will not affect VHF/UHF or higher line of sight communications. Most of what you hear on a scanner will not be affected.
It can disrupt HF and cause auroral openings on upper HF and lower VHF bands.

Read some of the links on these pages:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Education
http://wiki.radioreference.com/index.php/HF_Propagation
 
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ka3jjz

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If it's strong enough, you might - just might - see long distance skip on the VHF low band. I remember listening to European low band stations when I was living in Massachusetts years ago during the last solar cycle. For hams, 6 meter openings (50-54 Mhz) might be possible, depending on how high the max usable frequency gets....

Mike
 
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The CME (and flares in general) are akin to you (the sun) standing in the middle of the lawn holding a running water hose, As you turn, the spray of water forms a curve. The person in the lawn chair (the earth) only gets wet when the spray passes over the chair.

The stuff ejected from the sun only affects the earth if the spray path sweeps over the earth

The CME particles will increase signal absorption around the poles and move the aurora zones further away from the poles. Signals using high latitude reflection paths passing through the expanded zone are absorbed. For example, signals between eNAm and nEu are absorbed. With the usual mix of multiple transmitters from nEu gone, there are two possibilities (generally).

Signals using low-latitude reflection paths will appear to be improved. It is a combination of slightly more ionization outside the expanded aurora zone. For example, it was such a combination of events that on one 1960's Monday morning I heard Rome on 844 fading out at their sunrise and Tarawa in the Gilbert and Ellice Islands in the Pacific fading in on 845. Really neat to watch the varying signal strengths and signal fading rates on the panadaptor tied into my HQ-150.

Trans-equatorial (N-S) path signals from LAm/SAm will be appear to be better than usual. Some the particles instead of being attracted to the poles increase the reflectivity of signals, and on such a morning Radio Globo-860 (Brasil) and LRA-1030(?-I don't remember) (Argentina were listenable on my Hammarlund portable (yes, they marketed one).

In summary, the solar disruptions create abnormal conditions. But the sun's daily radiation changes on a nominal 11-year cycle. Not solar disturbances, but the daily radiation rises and falls affecting the D-, E- and F ionospheric layers. Liken this to a ping-pong ball bouncing off a bouncing off a tennis net. Make the tennis net holes smaller and more balls on higher frequencies will be reflected.

We are near the peak of a cycle -- radiation to move the MUF up and flares (to absorb signals -- now, so signals above 30 MHz into 6m ham band are frequently bounced around the E layer. In 1957-58 during monster F-layer activity I collected 6m cards from EI2W, CT1CO, KH6, KL7, some LU's, and VQ2PL. and I missed the first-ever JA opening to the my area of the east coast by 15 minutes.

My own take of "how come I can't hear anything" appeared in CQ in 1983. I made PDFs of my columns, available at w2xq.com Bibliography.About 20 years ago I compiled and evaluated a list propagation and solar weather sites for Radio Netherlands' Media Network. A shadow of its former self Propagation, Solar & Space Weather is here

HTH..
 
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Is this the prophecy being fulfilled? Lol, you are hearing more and more about these solar storms. Not nearly as much in 2011. Makes you wonder, isnt the north and south poles supposed to switching or something to that effect by end of year, would love your guys input and or theories
 

ka3jjz

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I wonder what that would do to the band. Not over time necissarily, but when it happened.
Do to which band? Read the whole thread and I think you'll have your answer.

As to when it happened most of the solar related sites have this information - spaceweather is a pretty good site as it keeps things fairly simple for most

Mike
 
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Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (Linux; U; Android 2.3.4; en-us; DROID BIONIC Build/5.5.1_84_DBN-74) AppleWebKit/533.1 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/4.0 Mobile Safari/533.1)

Kb1ubm, you are only hearing more about solar storms because there is better technology now than a few decades ago. SOHO can "see" the entire sun's surface; the measuring instruments are supurb, etc. Internet dispenses immediate alerts, not waiting for daily newspapers or the 6:30 pm national 30-min newscast. Look through the RR wiki, the NASA site, the propagation link on my site and Wikipedia. BTW, I wouldn't worry about Earth's poles flipping around for a few billion years... HTH.
 
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Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (Linux; U; Android 2.3.4; en-us; DROID BIONIC Build/5.5.1_84_DBN-74) AppleWebKit/533.1 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/4.0 Mobile Safari/533.1)

Looks like a minor bump at 1035 UTC (6:35am EDT). http://w2xq.com/bm-solar-data.html We'll see how the day develops. Clouds and rain here, so no visible aurora even if would spread south to 40N. Listen on 10/6m for "watery" signals. HTH.
 
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Interesting article, thanks for the reminder. I remember one aurora during the IGY where it was bright enough to read a newspaper. It went over the zenith to the southern horizon; I later found out it was visible in downtown Havana Cuba.

We've had two more bumps today, around 1415 and 1545 UTC (link above).
 
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