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Economics / Finance - So you did well in math but you slept through Economics 101?

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Old 06-01-2014, 8:27 PM
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Talking Dow 20,000

Hello I wanted to know if anybody thinks the dow will hit 20,000 or take a nose dive. I think it will go higher since it has been up alot. I wanted peoples thoughts and options.


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Old 06-01-2014, 9:39 PM
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Don't know, but whatever happens, the investors will likely enter a blind panic, like they usually do, and bring it all down.
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Old 06-01-2014, 11:32 PM
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I think you'll see at least a 10% correction before you see it hit 20,000.
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Old 06-13-2014, 4:01 PM
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Do you think it will go up still because of Iraq?
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Old 06-13-2014, 4:36 PM
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Originally Posted by KampingAnthony1AolCo View Post
Do you think it will go up still because of Iraq?
No, I don't.

Eventually even President Obama will have to admit that leaving Iraq was a mistake and we've got to go back - maybe permanently. Same thing will happen in Afghanistan too - as soon as our troops leave, the former Taliban and Al Qaeda will set up shop and it'll be almost like we were never there. At any rate, more intervention in the Middle East will probably upset investors and oil speculators alike. Chasing ISIS back under their rocks would be good for the world, but bad for the global economy - at least at first until we got control of Iraq again. But I think it's going to be necessary and we should do it sooner rather than later.

These ISIS guys really concern me. Do you suppose if they get their way and set up a Caliphate in Iraq, Iran, Jordan and Syria they're just going to be happy with that and not try to wipe Israel off the map as well as inflict serious damage here? I doubt it. I think most Americans would agree: letting ISIS gain control of Iraq would be a very bad thing for not just Iraq but for the region, America and the world at large as well. Despite this, it would seem that President Obama is content to fiddle while Baghdad burns. Sorry, Mr. President - I respect you and your office, but you're acting like a damn fool and you need to wake up right now and embrace reality. Telling these guys we're not going to go over there and stomp them out like the bugs they are is only going to empower them to keep going. Bad move.

Sad as I am to say it, if it were me in the Oval Office I'd feel that we'd have little choice but to intervene militarily again in Iraq before these ISIS guys become too big to effectively deal with. It's clear that Iraq's military can't deal with them - they are 100 miles from Baghdad and closing. Many ISIS soldiers are members of the former Iraqi military that WE convinced the Iraqi government to disband. So this isn't just your typical Middle Eastern jihadists who blow themselves up or throw rocks at tanks - these guys are serious, well trained fighters and they are pissed off at their own government AND ours. This is a mess WE created and WE should fix it. Fast. Before it gets out of hand and Iraq turns into another Somalia - or worse.

Of course, I have about as much chance of becoming President or even being in a position to advise the President as I do of growing wings and flying to the moon, but there you have it - my 2 cents on the matter.

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Old 06-13-2014, 4:46 PM
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We never went back to Vietnam after the fall of Saigon. Baghdad will fall just like Saigon. Another failed war we had no business starting. Billions squandered, thousands of Americans died in vain. All this war was nothing but a cash grab to fatten the pockets of Defense contractors/industry at the expense of the taxpayer and the blood of young Americans that served in this senseless war.
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Old 06-13-2014, 5:38 PM
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We never went back to Vietnam after the fall of Saigon. Baghdad will fall just like Saigon. Another failed war we had no business starting. Billions squandered, thousands of Americans died in vain. All this war was nothing but a cash grab to fatten the pockets of Defense contractors/industry at the expense of the taxpayer and the blood of young Americans that served in this senseless war.
I disagree. The VC were glad to see us gone and kept to themselves after the war. No one from Vietnam came back years later to blow themselves up in a US shopping mall, or fly airplanes into skyscrapers or anything like that. The ISIS caliphate will not rest until there is either no United State or no ISIS caliphate. It's literally as simple as that. These guys won't stop fighting with us just because we let them take over one country. They want to literally rule the world. You can't let madmen like that just do whatever, unless you want them eventually ruling over you, too.

Now, do I think these ISIS guys will one day take over the world if we do nothing? No, of course not - that is ridiculous. But it's not ridiculous to them. They think they can do it, especially if the "Great Satan" stays away and lets them do their "holy work". So if we let them have Baghdad, they'll go after Damascus next. Or Tehran. Or Cairo. Or Jerusalem (now that would be a hell of a fight, but they'll still try, watch and see).Bottom line, we WILL be dealing with these guys at some point. The question is: do we do it now, while they're still just "terrorists" or do we wait until they are the defacto sovereign government of Iraq (and maybe Iran, Syria, Egypt etc)?

We ignore this group at our own peril. Did we learn nothing from watching Al Qaeda grow from a handful of Afghani warlords to a worldwide terror threat? The best time to kill the cockroaches is when you see the first one, not when it's a full blown infestation. We need to intervene. Unlike when Bush Jr. went back to Iraq to "finish Daddy's war", there is an actual, credible threat to this country brewing there RIGHT NOW - while our "super intelligent", apology touring President "thinks it over".

I like Mr. Obama. I really do. I think he'd be fun to hang out with and have a beer or two. But he's a lousy President. He needs to LEAD, not sit there waiting for someone else to make his decisions for him. And he needs to stand up for America instead of walking around begging the world for forgiveness and trying to be everyone's "buddy".

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Old 06-13-2014, 6:36 PM
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With Iraq in turmoil, gold and the ETF $GLD should get a bump. Defense stocks should also move up.
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Old 06-14-2014, 1:59 PM
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Just curious.

How many soldiers do you want the US to send to Iraq, How long should they stay, whats the max American soldier deaths your willing to take and how much are you willing to borrow and spend to attempt and prop up the Iraqi government?
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Old 06-14-2014, 2:06 PM
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The OP question was what pushes the Dow to 20k, not the politics of the Obama administration. That unfortunate situation is discussed elsewhere.

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Old 06-14-2014, 7:01 PM
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Sadly, no one here has mentioned the ONE controlling factor in making the DOW climb the last five thousand points, and that is the FED pumping billions into the market. The market will continue to climb until such time that the FED stops putting money in, then, Katy bar the door. You can expect a large correction, and even with computer trading, I expect it will be in the neighborhood of 25-30%. That is how much it is over valued right now.
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Old 06-14-2014, 7:10 PM
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Quote:
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Sadly, no one here has mentioned the ONE controlling factor in making the DOW climb the last five thousand points, and that is the FED pumping billions into the market. The market will continue to climb until such time that the FED stops putting money in, then, Katy bar the door. You can expect a large correction, and even with computer trading, I expect it will be in the neighborhood of 25-30%. That is how much it is over valued right now.
Do you think it will go to 8,000 correction level like the 2008 recession or not?
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Old 06-14-2014, 8:11 PM
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No 8k level but a 10% correction wouldn't be a surprise as QE slowly comes to an end. Frankly, I think a mild correction would help shake out the speculators.
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Old 06-14-2014, 8:17 PM
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You think around 15,100 it will go down to.
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Old 06-14-2014, 9:22 PM
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Frankly, I think a mild correction would help shake out the speculators.
Nothing will shake out all the speculators. With computer trading making speculation in the markets so easily available, half of the trading done online today is probably from speculators.

Frankly, any correction in the market will bring more speculators. The more liquidity (volume) there is, the more opportunities there is to trade/speculate in today's markets.

As far as a 10% correction is concerned, the drop back in January 2014 was close to 10%. When it happens, a correction will be much larger than 10%. When that correction actually happens is anybodies guess.

As for the Dow getting to 20,000....sure, it'll happen some day but the markets have been on a pretty good run up since 2009 when it hit the low of around 6400. It's now gained over 10,000 points since then-quite an increase with no dramatic correction.
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Old 06-14-2014, 9:30 PM
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Nothing will shake out all the speculators. With computer trading making speculation in the markets so easily available, half of the trading done online today is probably from speculators.

Frankly, any correction in the market will bring more speculators. The more liquidity (volume) there is, the more opportunities there is to trade/speculate in today's markets.

As far as a 10% correction is concerned, the drop back in January 2014 was close to 10%. When it happens, a correction will be much larger than 10%. When that correction actually happens is anybodies guess.

As for the Dow getting to 20,000....sure, it'll happen some day but the markets have been on a pretty good run up since 2009 when it hit the low of around 6400. It's now gained over 10,000 points since then-quite an increase with no dramatic correction.
What do think will happen come Monday?
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Old 06-14-2014, 10:12 PM
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Anthony, a 10% correction will vary in numbers once the pundits decide a top has been reached. When a top happens, who knows? If the DOW rolls over at 20k, a 10% decline takes it down to 18k. So long as QE continues, I think the overall market will continue to crab sideways and slowly move up. Some sectors will do better than others; some will decline.

Looking only at the DOW as a measure of the market isn't recommended. 30 stocks can't reflect the overall economy. Other indices -- see Bloomberg and CNBC -- for ideas. Some of the Web sites I look at from time to time: http://w2xq.com/bm-fin-investing.html. YMMV.

FWIW I am not a daytrader. I have a few short term positions, but I mostly reinvest dividends on a few large caps that I'd like to think are reasonably recession proof. I like to pay attention to the global markets, seeing what happens in Asia/Pacific, Middle East, and Europe as political events and those market reactions can and do affect the markets opening later in the day in New York. Unreasonable market reactions to events can lead to buying opportunities. But that's a whole other set of discussions, and I'm no expert. I'll leave that to others. HTH.
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Old 06-14-2014, 10:28 PM
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Anthony, a 10% correction will vary in numbers once the pundits decide a top has been reached. When a top happens, who knows? If the DOW rolls over at 20k, a 10% decline takes it down to 18k. So long as QE continues, I think the overall market will continue to crab sideways and slowly move up. Some sectors will do better than others; some will decline.

Looking only at the DOW as a measure of the market isn't recommended. 30 stocks can't reflect the overall economy. Other indices -- see Bloomberg and CNBC -- for ideas. Some of the Web sites I look at from time to time: Investing. YMMV.

FWIW I am not a daytrader. I have a few short term positions, but I mostly reinvest dividends on a few large caps that I'd like to think are reasonably recession proof. I like to pay attention to the global markets, seeing what happens in Asia/Pacific, Middle East, and Europe as political events and those market reactions can and do affect the markets opening later in the day in New York. Unreasonable market reactions to events can lead to buying opportunities. But that's a whole other set of discussions, and I'm no expert. I'll leave that to others. HTH.
I watch CNBC all the time and FOX business. I also watch Asia and China. I keep an eye on the Nikki 225. Also I know this does not deal with the forum but what does HTH mean?
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Old 06-15-2014, 12:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KampingAnthony1AolCo View Post
Do you think it will go up still because of Iraq?
If you mean will it hit 20,000 because of Iraq, the short answer is no. The stock markets do not like uncertainty, and there's a lot of uncertainty in Iraq, not the least of which is the possibility that ISIS takes control of the Iraqi oilfields. If that happens, you could easily see $5/gallon gas and the market will take a hit. Now if ISIS manages to overrun Baghdad and dispose of the Iraqi government, look out below ...

With regard to quantitative easing, it's my opinion that the easy money to be made from QE has already been made. I think that QE has detached the stock market from economic reality, similar to how alcohol detaches the drunk from reality; the market will HAVE to come back to reality at some point.

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Also I know this does not deal with the forum but what does HTH mean?
HTH = Hope This Helps
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Old 06-15-2014, 10:33 AM
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Anthony, a 10% correction will vary in numbers once the pundits decide a top has been reached. When a top happens, who knows? If the DOW rolls over at 20k, a 10% decline takes it down to 18k. So long as QE continues, I think the overall market will continue to crab sideways and slowly move up. Some sectors will do better than others; some will decline.

Looking only at the DOW as a measure of the market isn't recommended. 30 stocks can't reflect the overall economy. Other indices -- see Bloomberg and CNBC -- for ideas. Some of the Web sites I look at from time to time: Investing. YMMV.

FWIW I am not a daytrader. I have a few short term positions, but I mostly reinvest dividends on a few large caps that I'd like to think are reasonably recession proof. I like to pay attention to the global markets, seeing what happens in Asia/Pacific, Middle East, and Europe as political events and those market reactions can and do affect the markets opening later in the day in New York. Unreasonable market reactions to events can lead to buying opportunities. But that's a whole other set of discussions, and I'm no expert. I'll leave that to others. HTH.
It helped but this is all your option if you think it will go up.
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