What digital mode will HAMs be using most in the next 10 years?

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danesgs

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I am guessing that all that depends on repeaters to support them and the makers to make the radios. Looking at things, DMR seems to have over taken DSTAR so why buy a nifty Yaesu HT for system fusion? P25 is the defacto standard for commercial Public Safety use but not many HAMs have seemed to want to take up that mode. In another 10 years what will be the most used digital supported voice mode in HAM radio? Or will there be another mode altogether?
 

Will001

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I wish P25 would become more popular, but that probably won’t happen. DMR is most likely going to become the most popular mode, due to its affordability and practicality. DStar and YSF are both entirely too expensive, and DStar has almost abandoned. Not to mention that they are not very good modes at all, compared to the commercially designed DMR.


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ButchGone

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DMR certainly has not taken over DStar, it is very much alive and well. The future of ham radio will not rely on repeaters, as sites are getting more difficult and expensive to maintain. The explosion in the use of hot spots makes repeaters obsolete for many reasons, plus they allow cross mode usage. They are inexpensive and give the op freedom to use whatever reflectors/rooms/talk groups they want. I have seen Yaesu System Fusion skyrocket in popularity, with many rooms constantly active. So what will be the dominant digi voice mode in 10 years? Who knows, as technology changes more rapidly with time. But my money is on a mix of modes, DStar, Fusion and DMR, with the rapidly increasing use of X-Reflectors via hotspots bridging these modes into common reflectors.
 

DeepBlue

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I can't guess on the format debate but here Fusion is the most popular right now with D-Star and DMR almost silent.

What I can see as the next possible evolution would be a wireless hotspot built in to the radio itself for a digital format. Think on that a bit. :)

Sean
 

Chronic

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I can't guess on the format debate but here Fusion is the most popular right now with D-Star and DMR almost silent.

What I can see as the next possible evolution would be a wireless hotspot built in to the radio itself for a digital format. Think on that a bit. :)

Sean

I think Icom has already done that
 

mmckenna

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I think Icom has already done that

Many manufacturers are adding WiFi capability to their LMR radios. I suspect we'll see that start to roll over into the amateur world.

I'd probably not give up on P25 yet. While I do believe it's a bit bloated and way overpriced, there's a lot of used equipment that's starting to show up on the used market, and that'll bring the price point down. But, no reason for amateur to pick P25 over any other mode, other than bragging rights.

As for the DMR/SystemFusion/D-Star/NXDN ideas, I think I'll just sit back with my analog radios and wait for you guys to figure that out. Around here it seems to be a rotating "system du-jour" depending on which club you talk to. Everyone has their opinions of what is "best". I'm not investing in any of my own personal gear until things settle down. No matter what, analog is still king around here, and I see it staying that way for a long time.
 

k7ng

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I don't want to be part of an argument or the target of hate posts, but I thought this could be a good start to a long and productive discussion. I do believe that digital is the future of VHF/UHF voice radio, as there are advantages not available in analog modes.
I have tried D-star, DMR, and P25 in the ham radio world, and I work in radio also, so I've looked a lot of P25 radios in the eye that way too.
As has been said before, each has it's advantages and disadvantages. I offer some personal viewpoints to add to the discussion pool:

For the USER, DMR wins in that there are inexpensive portable radios available. But repeaters are NOT inexpensive, in fact it's a lot harder to build a (good) DMR repeater from scratch than most any other mode. Remember that repeaters have to be built, maintained, and operated by someone. If you've ever tried to make yourself a DMR radio codeplug, you might want to figure your valuable time into the cost to get on the air. I personally am less enthusiastic about DMR because your choice of talkgroups is controlled by the repeater (or network) manager. (Hotspot users may disregard the repeater issues... the relative merits of repeaters vs. hotspots might be another worthwhile discussion)

P25 is a distant competitor, to be sure, and new radios are big bucks but there will be increasing numbers of surplused P25 radios available as time passes. The radios might be a little battered, but still good. So don't count P25 out. P25 offers an enormous variety of nonvoice services built into the format, so local systems might offer lots of interesting capabilities, assuming controllers, etc. were affordable or built by someone more clever than me.

D-star is my personal favorite as the user is the one who selects where to link. There are hundreds of D-star reflectors (most of which have little or no traffic, to be sure - like the analog repeater spectrum in most metropolitan areas), and, assuming it's OK with the repeater operator, you can select them 'on the fly'. D-star has detractors regarding voice quality, and I will agree, when the bit error rate is high, the quality of the voice audio deteriorates more quickly than some other modes, but with low BER, I don't think D-star sounds any worse than other modes. In fact, all the modes can carry excellent audio, or audio that would make a cat barf, depending on the adjustment of the radio equipment in use. I've found D-star radios easier to keypad program, but that is perhaps due to the radios I have for each of the 3 modes I've mentioned. I wish there were more radio brands carrying D-star models, for competition might reduce per-radio costs.

Now, comes YSF. It's a nice idea, not terribly expensive to get into. I personally have little exposure to this mode, but frankly. what does it offer that other digital modes don't? If a YSF proponent would step in and explain, it might benefit us all, and me in particular.

That's all I care to say. Thanks for reading.
 

DeepBlue

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From a user perspective I need to say that Fusion capable radios need not be expensive. The Yaesu FT-70DR HT is available at one popular reseller is only $140. The FTM-3200DR mobile only $150. Now the repeater systems are another deal if someone wanted to set up their own repeater. As a user, Fusion is cheap and you don't have to write in for permission from anyone to use it, like DMR and D-Star.

Sean
 

Hit_Factor

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... you don't have to write in for permission from anyone to use it, like DMR and D-Star.

Sean

Its a simple one-time registration process for both DMR and D*.

73, K8HIT
Icom: IC-7300, IC-PW1, ID-5100A, ID-51A Plus 2, IC-R30, Hytera PD782G, Kenwood TH-D74, Uniden SDS100, DVMega, SDRplay RSPduo
 

kayn1n32008

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Throw some tea leaves. That’s your answer as to which digital mode will be the most popular.


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vagrant

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All of them!
I am supporting this solution. I have a Yaesu repeater on Wires-X. It will soon support hot spots getting in via DMR, then P25 and D-Star as well. I'm fine with whatever digital flavor an operator prefers.

As to growth, I can only share what I hear on repeaters and know about in my locale in central California:
- D-Star - It is very quiet, but there are plans to install additional repeaters to cover a good chunk of central California. Hardware already obtained and should have a home by 2020.

- DMR - This was quite busy a few years ago with it's "New Mode" excitement. While it has quieted down significantly, there are a plethora of DMR repeaters in this area.

- C4FM - Yaesu Fusion is growing. The recent updates that allow operators to no longer need two additional devices to get onto Wires-X has sparked a slight boom. This has also increased the use of Yaesu repeaters via RF, as operators now have the gear. It's probably as busy as DMR, but the trend is upwards on this mode. With the increase of RF traffic from new buyers, early adopters are now joining back in.

- P25 - We have significant coverage here comparatively. 10W using a quarter wave antenna and everything is working fine when mobile. I often use a Moto handheld with 3W at home. There is P25 chatter daily and it is more than C4FM. Again, this area may be an exception regarding P25.

If I had to choose only one as a preferred mode, it would be C4FM/Yaesu Fusion. P25 would be second, with DMR and D-Star following. The relatively low cost for Yaesu Fusion makes it accessible and it has performed well for the last five years.

A Motorola Quantar repeater is not inexpensive, but P25 radios can be had for $100 and up. The programming of those radios is not as friendly as the Yaesu, both in effort and price.
 

Stupidfatkid

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... Who knows, as technology changes more rapidly with time. But my money is on a mix of modes, DStar, Fusion and DMR, with the rapidly increasing use of X-Reflectors via hotspots bridging these modes into common reflectors.

You said exactly what I was going to say. Creating a reflector and bridging different digital modes together is trivial now. I see it getting to a point where you have to ask the person on the other end which digital mode he/she is using. I think it's great. Everyone can use the digital mode/radio they enjoy without being isolated to just that one mode.
 

wrath

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With the advent of "internet radios" that do all modes and remove the actual need for RF to be on the air anywhere you can get wifi ,i think all modes are going to be used( many people due to pecularities or experience prefer one mode over another )however for the price of a single mobile,you can get an "internet radio" that does them all,so why not.

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TailGator911

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Internet radio does seem to be gaining in popularity. I was recently introduced to this site Ham Radio for your PC and Smartphone - HamSphere® and plan to dabble and try it out soon. Sounds like a good way to QSO with friends when away from home. You can design your own radio with antennas and accessories. Looks pretty cool. Ham modes in 10 years?

Might be any mode you want with an internet connection.

JD
kf4anc
 

mmckenna

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Honestly, there's two things I'd like to see:
1. Amateurs pick a mode to standardize on. Maybe it's analog, and that's fine. But several non-compatible digital modes on 2 meter/70cm isn't helping much. Having different modes is fine, it's part of the hobby, but ideally I'd love to see some standardization across the board.

2. Amateurs take the lead on development. How about starting to move to 12.5KHz channels. I know, not required, but eventually a lot of used commercial gear will end up on the bands, and a lot of its going to be narrow band FM. How about something digital with good audio? If it doesn't exist right now, then develop something. No reason why amateurs need to be trailing the LMR industry.
 

bharvey2

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Here in the San Francisco Bay Area, the dominant digital mode has been DMR over the last few years. The isn't a whole lot in the way of DStar and I'd say P25 is all but non existent. That's not to say there might not be a private repeater in use somewhere. The build out of DMR repeaters has slowed down a lot and I'd attribute that to the availability of personal hotspots. I use mine far more than I do DMR repeaters. Although I haven't tried it, System Fusion seems to be the next thing and I see some repeaters popping up now. From what I can see, the cost of admission for System Fusion doesn't seem particularly high. It isn't as cheap as DMR but it seems far less than DStar. I don't see analog disappearing anytime soon especially since Allstar and other VOIP technologies have vastly improved linking capabilities. Although I like the audio quality of 25khz, I think having the latitude to use narrow band radios would be nice.

I could envision a large increase of personal nodes whether analog or digital (probably all multimode at some point) and the development of mesh networking among hams.
 

k7ng

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mmckenna, I agree 100% with every word.
I wish I'd said that myself.
 

jjbond

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I wish we'd have more P25 use, there's a flood of surplus P25 equipment on the market now for cheap. I have an Astro Saber III and a pair of XTS5000's, in V and U.
 

danesgs

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Based on the P25 used market I am guessing Phase 1 gear is what is being talked about. I see a handful of P25 repeaters in the VA area but tend to agree on a mixed mode approach and the Wifi built in angle. Thanks to all for the comments and I am going to go with the Ft-70DR as the price is right for all the extras, wide recieve (AM air band), programming cable at no extra charge etc. I had a Alluince HD-1 and sold it as I could never get the codeplug to bring up anything even with tones of help from other folks but then like anything else new you are learning, leaving out one step or such sinks the boat. Still use echolink btw :)
 
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