2006 NOAA Hurricane Predictions

[RevGary]

For our Alabama Members:

As some of you know, I have posted Hurricane preparedness and advisory info in 6 Gulf Coast Forums for many years. On May 22, NOAA came out with their 2006 predictions which pretty much confirms our group's predictions from January, when our environmental studies group made our initial computer model runs for the 2006 season.

You can see the NOAA info in the first URL below and for our forum friends who are anywhere along the Atlantic or Gulf Coasts, use the second link below for preparedness info as supplied by the Red Cross. Take care, be safe and remember what Hurricanes IVAN and KATRINA did to the Alabama Gulf Coast !

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm

http://www.redcross.org/services/prepare/0,1082,0_253_,00.html

 

[RevGary]

NOAA NWS Weather Radio Locations

NOAA Weather Radio Locations and Frequencies:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/nwrbro.htm

____________________________________________


GULF COASTAL ALABAMA and FLORIDA PANHANDLE:

MOBILE (AL) - 162.550

PENSACOLA (FL) - 162.400

PANAMA CITY (FL) - 162.550

 

[RadioJonD]

Thanks, Gary! I've relayed this to the DPS PCO yahoo group as well.

 

[RevGary]

10-4, Jonathan. Just trying to provide a path for persons to remain safe and up to speed on things. The tropical waves are coming off the northwest African coast already and sometime soon, one of them will turn into something more than just a tropical low or wave. VIGILANCE is the way to remain safe... (along with a tiny bit of paranoia!!)

 

[Thunderbolt]

So far the weather patterns this year are eerily similar to what happened last year, and I pray that Mother Nature doesn't do a repeat performance. However, meteorologists have been predicting that we would fall into another cycle of violent, killer hurricanes and the irony is that this prediction seems to be coming true.

The thing we can all do is start preparing for the worst and pray for the best.

73's

Ron

 

[Mischief810]

Climatologically, this time of year is characterized by low intensity storms that form in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. It's not until later in the season that we see storms form in the Atlantic and then move westward.

That said, the period of record we have to analyze patterns is nowhere near long enough to make any kind of definitive statement regarding early season storm strength, and some of the older data we have is of questionable reliability (to say the least).

So it's best to just be ready already! My family makes a big deal on Memorial Day weekend of stocking the Hurricane Trunk. It's a wooden trunk I built a few years ago, with room enough to store several days' worth of canned goods, batteries, flashlights, blankets, the first aid kit, what have you.

 

[RevGary]

FOR OUR ALABAMA AND GULF COAST MEMBERS -

We don't normally mention tropical storms here until they are at Tropical Storm strength and have been named. However, the fairly intense low pressure area between Cancun and the Cayman Islands bears watching. There is some convection and this storm is right on the borderline of two opposing steering currents. It is going to be moving into the southern Gulf later today where the waters are a bit warmer. It is now Tropical Depression # 1 and within the next 16 to 30 hours it may possibly intensify to Tropical Storm intensity (Sunday into Monday or even earlier). Our own computer modeling is not diffinitive regarding easterly or westerly tracking as yet. That will become more precise later today when our southcentral Gulf buoy data from # 42003 and from northcentral Caribbean buoy # 42056 is analyzed. Currently, the pressure monitored at # 42056 this hour is at 29.67.

Persons in both southwestern Florida and coastal Texas are at risk for very heavy rains, at minimum, starting sometime Sunday. Please use the NOAA link below for the most up to date info and since we are into the 2006 Hurricane Season, please make sure that your Hurricane Preparedness protocols, kits and items are up to date.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

 

[rdale]

What computer modeling does the Woodland Chapel operate?

 

[RevGary]

What computer modeling does the Woodland Chapel operate?

The Chapel, as such, is not involved. As a Minister and Chaplain Responder who goes into post hurricane devastation areas to assist victims and having a degree in environmental sciences, I do modeling on my own using commercial licensed software plus data point inputs from many NOAA sources.

I only post here and occasionally in the Florida area for the benefit of those persons who would rather sit at the PC for hours at a time and not get any Gulf weather updates from TV or radio. I'd rather have them monitor locally when an event has potential, but some persons are totally PC distracted don't get that information until the storm is creating a 19 foot storm surge into their front door and the power finally goes out.

 

[rdale]

What type of software?

 

[RevGary]

(PM sent to rdale)
__________________________________________________________________________

Saturday afternoon update

Our modeling is following fairly close to NOAA's projections. The storm will most likely be upgraded to Tropical Storm status later this evening after the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft data is processed. The steering currents are becoming more well defined and after entering the southern Gulf of Mexico, the storm will track due north for a short time and then to the northwest. We are projecting a mid level intensity Tropical Storm making Florida landfall sometime on Tuesday at it's current forward speed. However, southwestern Florida, the Miami area and the Keys are already experiencing some strong rain bands. Areas from Marco Island, Florida, to Mobile, Alabama, are in the tracking cone at this hour. A more centralized landfall, closer to the Tampa to Panama City area is becoming more likely. Variables can still affect this storm, so please monitor it's movement and intensity through the NOAA website listed below. Our next posting will be Sunday AM, June 11 when we will be able to refine the tracking a bit more.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

 

[RevGary]

Still a Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression # 1 has only moved 50 miles to the north northwest overnight. The strong upper level flow from the southwest is keeping this storm from developing deep convection. The western part of Cuba, Cancun, and most of south and southwestern Florida can expect more heavy rains. This will be beneficial to Florida because of the current rainfall defecit and the resulting brush fires. Localized rainfall amounts in Florida can be expected to reach 6 to 10 inches in places. Persons in extreme southern Alabama and the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor their local NOAA radio station periodically for tracking news, rainfall projections and wind intensities.

Our next update will take place at such time as this storm makes a definate turn toward western Florida OR becomes a Tropical (named) Storm. Use the link below for additional up to the minute information.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

 

[RevGary]

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO

At 09:40 HRS CDT, NOAA announced that the central winds have increased to 42 MPH with gusts in thunderstorms to nearly 60 mph. This in now officially Tropical Storm Alberto.

Persons along the entire western and inland areas of Florida can expect tropical storm force winds, very heavy rains with some beach errosion, frequent lightning strikes in thunderstorm bands and localized flooding throughout the state over the next 48 to 72 hours. The storm is still moving slowly northward and the landfall cone projection is still centered north of Tampa. All persons from the Keys and along the Gulf Coast of Florida and far southern Alabama should monitor this situation closely. Use the link below for the most recent NOAA information and tune to your regional NOAA Weather Broadcast Station for watches and warnings.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

 

[RevGary]

Tropical Storm Alberto Update 16:35 Hrs CDT 11 June 2006

Tropical Storm Alberto made it's anticipated northeasterly turn at around 14:00 Hrs CDT. The forward progress is still only 9 miles per hour. Heavy rain bands and some thunderstorms are being reported from the Keys northward along the western Gulf Coast of Florida to 60 miles north of Cedar Key. This same area is under a Tropical Storm Watch at this hour. Residents can expect continued heavy rain bands and near-tropical force winds tonight with more frequent heavy rains and increasing winds on Monday into Tuesday. Some low area flooding is already occuring and some beach erosion is taking place near Tampa and Ft. Myers.

All persons from the Keys northward along the Gulf Coast of Florida and to far southern Alabama should monitor this situation closely. Use the link below for the most recent NOAA information and tune to your regional NOAA Weather Broadcast Station for watches and warnings.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

 

[RevGary]

Tropical Storm Alberto Update 06:00 Hrs. CDT June 12, 2006

The storm is affecting most areas in Florida this morning including the central and Atlantic Coastal areas. Tormado Warnings are in effect in areas from Ft. Myers to north of Cedar Key. Residents of most of Florida can expect increasing winds, heavy rains, bands of thunderstorms and possible tornados for the next 24 to 36 hours. Rainfall amounts could easilly top 10 inches in localized areas. Lowlands and street flooding is taking place at this hour and travel along the western Gulf Coast of Florida is hazardous. Beach erosion and high wave action is anticipated with a Tropical Storm surge of around 3 to 5 feet and up to 18 foot waves to the right of the storm's center Monday night into Tuesday.

All persons from the Keys northward along the Gulf Coast of Florida and to far southern Alabama should monitor this situation closely. Use the link below for the most recent NOAA information and tune to your regional NOAA Weather Broadcast Station for watches and warnings.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

 

[rdale]

"Tormado Warnings are in effect in areas from Ft. Myers to north of Cedar Key."

I _despise_ sources of information that send out weather bulletins but don't know the difference between a watch and a warning.

A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes in and close to the watch area. A Tornado Warning means one has been spotted or is likely based on doppler radar.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for that area, not a warning.

 

[RevGary]

There WERE two WARNINGS issued in that area just before sunrise and several more have been issued this morning. If you have a problem with reading or listening to local NWS advisories from NWS Tampa, then take your issues up with THEM...


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=tbw&wwa=tornado warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1033 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

FLC049-121500-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-060612T1500Z/
HARDEE-
1033 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN HARDEE COUNTY UNTIL 1100
AM EDT...

AT 1030 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE TORNADO WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF ZOLFO SPRINGS
AND WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH AT 30 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 2736 8175 2736 8165 2763 8167 2763 8183

$$







--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1023 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

FLC049-081-121445-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-060612T1445Z/
MANATEE-HARDEE-
1023 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES FOR WESTERN HARDEE AND EASTERN MANATEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM EDT...

AT 1023 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 14 MILES WEST OF WAUCHULA...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! ACT QUICKLY. GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER
YOUR HEAD WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

&&

LAT...LON 2732 8213 2734 8193 2763 8194 2760 8214

$$

57



Our information is verified before it is posted - Please check YOUR facts before you criticise.

 

[rdale]

My point is that the area from Ft Myers to Cedar Key is _not_ under a Tornado Warning. There are some storms that NWS is issuing a warning for, but the bulk of the area is under a Tornado WATCH.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

And to be honest - what does any of this have to do with Alabama scanning? I think Tampa Bay Skywarn is a little too far away to be monitored ;>

 

[RevGary]

Four days ago, this storm had the potential to affect the entire Gulf Coast from Mobile Bay to Miami... posting in my state thread was started to keep those persons who read the Alabama threads up to date if they didn't have a TV or radio on at the time, as a public service. If you wish to help, then start your own in the Florida threads just in case there is anyone using a PC and not near a radio or TV that may benefit from the information. Thank you for your 'cooperation'.

Since you and one other member out of nearly 80,000 users have a problem with any type of weather postings in a "scanning" forum, you have your way - this is the last post for Alberto or any other storm. Congratulations, "rdale" - you just got your way! And I hope that everyone here understands that our group's postings were intended to create a mindset of vigilence on the part of those who may be affected by such storms and who may spend so much time in PC operations that they have not heard about this type of situation elsewhere in media, NOAA radio or their own scanners.

 

[rdale]

My guess is that hurricane-prone residents of Alabama are aware of the threat of hurricanes in their area. There are several weather forums I can point you to if you're interested in discussing meteorology in the right spot.

I think you'd get more bang for the buck telling people about NOAA Weather Radio, or finding sources for cheap AM receivers so the people who come here that may not be able to afford a $25 NWR can get the info in other ways.