Another "significant" winter storm? Who do we believe?!?

[n5usr]

I knew we were going to have still more lousy weather this weekend, but was completely baffled when everyone at the office this morning started talking about "another Christmas Eve storm".

Sure enough, (some of) the TV station forecasts are for 12" up to 25" (!!!), blizzard-like conditions, dire warnings and "nobody goes anywhere tomorrow".

But the NWS - the only place I normally bother to go for weather info - is still only forecasting a "possible" 3-4" for the area. Up to 8" in north-central Oklahoma.

Guess I'll get things ready just in case, but considering the track records for the last storms, I think I'll go with the NWS for now! They seemed to have a better handle on what was going to happen than the TV guys...

Who do YOU believe?!?

 

[k5phw]

I'm with Joe!

 

[k5phw]

Anyone catch any of the horizontal sleet early this morning?

 

[n5usr]

I was snug in my bed and never noticed a thing!

Well, based on what I see outside my windows I'd say so far the NWS was far more accurate than the TV guys once again.

That wind sure is misery though...

 

[rdale]

Just curious which TV stations had 25" snow forecasts... I checked at least the online forecasts from them yesterday and didn't see anything near those numbers.

 

[n5usr]

I don't know. When I got back to the office after lunch, someone just said the last report they had seen was (something like) 15-25". Don't remember exactly what they said the low end was, just the top! I thought that was pretty silly. But perhaps the person was exaggerating - I don't know.

Everyone was in agreement that "their station" had reported over a foot, up to 16-18". I did check out Ch 4's forecast online and saw either 14" or 16" for a top end for the metro.

Can't say either which station different people at work were listening to either. So I suppose it's possible *someone* was in fact giving a more accurate forecast, but they weren't watched by anyone I talked with at work. I do know 4 and 9 are popular, at least their weather bugs are on many computers. Can't say for sure about 5 or 25...

At any rate, quite a few people I talked with yesterday were absolutely convinced we were headed for another Christmas eve - or worse.

I would be quite interested to know how / why the forecasts were so different, what data the forecasters chose to interpret so differently and why. (Heaven forbid the cynic in me turns out to be right and we find the marketeers came down and said "we need ratings!" )

 

[iMONITOR]

Just watch Fox2Weather, then think the opposite of what they say, and it will be pretty accurate!

 

[rdale]

I would be quite interested to know how / why the forecasts were so different, what data the forecasters chose to interpret so differently and why. (Heaven forbid the cynic in me turns out to be right and we find the marketeers came down and said "we need ratings!" )

New departments often play up the "tease" or top story - but I've never heard of a meteorologist doubling his numbers because of a consultant. You'd only do that once before losing all your viewers.

 

[n5usr]

I realize that - or at least hope that would be the case! But I'm a hard-core cynic and thoughts like that do tend to pop into my mind from time to time...!

I do have to correct slightly - apparently Gary / Ch 9 did NOT go with the huge snowfall totals. Was listening to some guys talking on ham radio in the metro last night and they were also discussing the crazy forecasts, but said "at least Gary got it right". Apparently he too said 4-8".

Whatever the total snowfall, the suggestions to stay off the roads were good. OHP sure was busy yesterday...! Even heard them discuss shutting down the interstate a time or two because they couldn't get a sand truck out in a timely manner. Also talked with one ham around Cashion who runs an HVAC business, he took a service call and almost didn't get home due to heavy drifting on the east-west roads.

There was one ham who wasn't happy. By gum, they promised a blizzard and he didn't get one! He'd be happier living in Tahoe or someplace like that, would like to see snow so deep he could just walk straight on to his roof...! We all think he's nuts!

 

[N5TWB]

The difficulty of accurately predicting a snow event, especially expected total snowfall, was discussed yesterday morning on KRMG with one of the Tulsa TV meteorologists. The dynamics that interact defy capture in a math model so that is why you see such a wide range of predictions (6-12" or 12-18", etc.) across wide areas of geography.