Well, they probably could meet it, if they tried. Since this has been on the books for a while, it should have been something they've been thinking about for a long time. I suspect that the migration from the old TK-690's to the Kenwood/EFJohnson low band radios has some thought behind it. They wouldn't blow that kind of money on new radios without some thinking ahead. The issue isn't if they can do encryption, the issue is how fast they have to implement it. While the radios exist and are being installed, it's the repeaters that will need to catch up.
And it's not pencil pushers who would be agreeing to these contracts. They are done at the Chief level. I've been involved in this stuff for a long time, and it's the Cheif I'm dealing with. I had to write the reply to CA DOJ and she signed it.
And don't be too quick to blame California for this. It's coming down from the FBI, and the requirements are based of the FBI CJIS manual. So expect this to happen nationwide at some point. At that point, I'll take immense joy in picking apart what ever state you live in….
Per FBI, AES-256 FIPS 140-2 certified is required.
Requirements Companion Document to the FBI CJIS Security ...