Well, that is quite a possibility. For a while now the tropo on 2 meters has been hot. I have been getting into NYC and PA. Lately, 440 MHz has been hotter than I have ever seen. My friend N1QZ in Ringe NH was using his HT to talk to a guy in Manhattan on UHF simplex. So, your tropo theory has a lot of backup. But, as you know, if tropo is the case it will be especially hard to identify the origin. If you have a directional antenna you might be able to get a bearing which may help.