Major Tornado Outbreak Forecast For 04/14/2012

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Thunderbolt

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The SPC is forecasting a widespread, major tornado outbreak for much of the Plains States, for tomorrow afternoon and evening. Violent, long-track tornadoes are very possible in the affected areas. Currently, the SPC has issued a High Risk forecast because of the threat for extreme tornadoes.

Two areas are forecast with a 60% chance of significant severe weather within 25 miles of any given point. The last time I saw a forecast like this was several years ago, and there were gargantuan tornadoes all over the Plains States. Let's hope for the best tomorrow.

 

frazpo

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Yes, I would say its going to be an interesting weekend being they issued a "high" risk nearly two days in advance. The area of high threat is also rather large. Sad to say but most of these outbreaks results in fatalities due to people not taking precautions.
 

Thunderbolt

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Just like on April 27, 2011, weather conditions to produce a widespread tornado outbreak of historical significance are in place. The NWS forecast offices in the Plains States will be using new phrasing terminology to drive home the severity of these storms today, and that people need to take their warnings very seriously. Hopefully, everyone will take cover and ask questions later, when a warning is issued for their area.

Here is a categorical outlook area.



This is the Tornado Forecast for today. The hatched area is where very large and violent, long-track killer tornadoes will be likely today and tonight.



73's

Ron
 

Raven95150

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One of the local TV stations did a story on the new tornado warnings the NWS will be using when large tornadoes have been confirmed.

Here is an example, definitely gets the point across much better but I'm sure many people will still ignore them.

HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO.

IMPACT...COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS IS LIKELY. MANY WELL BUILT HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL BE COMPLETELY SWEPT FROM THEIR FOUNDATIONS. DEBRIS WILL BLOCK MOST ROADWAYS. MASS DEVASTATION IS HIGHLY LIKELY MAKING THE AREA UNRECOGNIZABLE TO SURVIVORS. TORNADO MAY BE UN-SURVIVABLE IF SHELTER IS NOT SOUGHT BELOW GROUND LEVEL.

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LtDoc

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Change that 30% probability to 100%, or "SIG", around the Norman Oklahoma area (where NWS happens to be associated with). Missed 'OU' by a mile or so, but certainly made a mess.
- 'Doc
 

newsphotog

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They can change the terminology all they want, people will still not heed the warning.

Look at Hurricane Katrina, when the NWS used end-of-world terminology.
 

gewecke

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They can change the terminology all they want, people will still not heed the warning.

Look at Hurricane Katrina, when the NWS used end-of-world terminology.
True, it's just human nature that what may be common sense to most of us is denial and ignorance for others.
I know many people who simply have no interest in knowing the forecast before they go to bed, and can care less about preparedness, but said people will scream helplessly that no one told them this could happen...if they wake up.


73,
n9zas
 
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Thunderbolt

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Fortunately many people did take the warning seriously and lives were saved. There were some deaths sadly to mention, but it could've been much worse. Prayers to all those effected by yesterdays storms.
You're right about the NWS and SPC nailing this one right on top of the head. They predicted this one seven days in advance. So far 136 tornadoes were reported across four states. Looks like we might see another active, and stormy weather pattern by the end of next week.

73's

Ron
 
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