Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch

[Jeffn8wb]

There may be an opportunity to observe some Auroral Skip over the next few days.

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 19:30 UTC on 17 August 2006
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 21:00 UTC ON 18 AUGUST
VALID UNTIL: 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) ON 20 AUGUST

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 19 AUGUST (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 18-21 AUGUST

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 8, 30, 20, 12 (18 AUG - 21 AUG)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12-18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18-24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR / PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NIL TO LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO IDAHO TO MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA
TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

SCOTLAND TO DENMARK TO NORWAY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN
RUSSIA.

SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A minor solar flare associated coronal mass ejection (CME) is currently
enroute to the Earth. Impact is expected early on the 19th (UTC time, or late
evening / early morning hours of the 18th / 19th over North America). This
disturbance has the potential to produce periods of moderately strong auroral
activity over the high and upper middle latitude regions. Observations of
activity into the central mid-latitudes is less likely, but still notably
possible. The CME is expected to have swept up the heliospheric current
sheet, which will complicate the interaction that occurs with the Earth's
magnetic field when it arrives. As a result, it is a more difficult to
estimate the strength of the disturbance prior to its arrival. Periods of
minor to perhaps weak major auroral storming will be possible after the
disturbance arrives. At the present time, best estimates place it's arrival
sometime between approximately 00 UTC and 12 UTC on 19 August, with a central
estimate near 05 GMT.

This watch will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
20 August. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **

 

[kb2vxa]

Hi Jeff and all,

Ah, so that's why trans-polar HF has been off lately and the noise floor gone through the roof. European DX has been good on 20M and transequitorial not bad either, let's see what today has to offer besides the usual stateside chatter.

Auroral backscatter is prevelent on 6M SSB but the flutter makes copy difficult, CW is the preferred mode. It is easily recognized by the flutter and signals always weak but steady, that is QSB is minimal and that all signals from any point all come out of the north in northern latitudes, south in southern latitudes. I've had fun with it and in fact worked just about every sort of propagation there is at one time or another. No particular brag, just was licensed at the right time to catch the last solar cycle and jumped in with both feet.

Don't be in the dark when the northern sky lights up, http://home.cogeco.ca/~dxinfo/ will tell you what's happening on the bands.

Now if you really want to have fun, study up and get a ham license. My only regret is I waited so long! HOW long you ask? Well, here's a picture of my first "scanner". (;->)

 

[elk2370bruce]

Damn! That brings back memories along with my old S-38B Hallicrafters.

 

[kb2vxa]

Elk, I also had a Halliscratchers S-38E. (;->) Now here's a shot of my first real shortwave receiver, tell us what it is. Before that I used an AM-SW chassis from a B&W TV combo and a '56 Buick Sonomatic for MW.