There is absolutely no 'voting' involved here. Many aspects of solar physics are not well understood, and the reasons for a sun with no spots could mean any number of things, including the beginning of the end to the current sunspot cycle which has been the weakest in a century.
We just have to roll with the flow (or lack thereof) and see what Sol fires up next. It's not, unfortunately, an exact science
Mike
We've got two factors going. The first, solar-terrestrial physics, but the second is the decline of targets for SWLing. I see it a lot on several FB forums, there's a monster steerable HF antenna that was the envy of the world now on its side getting cut up for scrap metal to make way for new housing units. I'd have to say that last factor plays heavily. I got one of the Globe Patrol kits in the 3rd grade. After it was assembled and a few feet of wire was attached to the antenna terminal, it was nothing short of amazement. There are very few outlets now. Thankfully, there are a few still going.
The shame of that is that we are no longer hearing external service news. There's no one in the originating nation distilling down local news into the important points and broadcasting that. Instead, everything's gone tabloid on these interwebs. I'll even lament the death of VHF low band. Fast forward to high school, I hooked my Bearcat 210 to a CB antenna and an Ameco preamp. I got that rush of amazement once again, as I logged so much activity from 30 - 50 MHz. That's not there anymore, either. You can have the same receivers working to the same specs using the same antennas. Can't catch what's not being pitched.
As for propagation, you're right. Currently, NVIS has been very difficult, and we're getting either a lot of absorption, or are "going long" on some bands at unique times. Even with ALE, I have periods of link outages where no frequency has good enough characteristics to get from here to there. We can hold on and hope we'll have better than Cycle 21 and 22 again in our lifetimes. But forget about that passive activity. That's all gone. It's up to us to get on the air and make our own. As for me, I'll be tuning around from 50.08 to about 50.21 (my favorite band!), call CQ a few times and see who answers. Maybe scanning 29.6 and 52.525, too.