Public Severe Weather Outlook

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Thunderbolt

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PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES
OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI INTO LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

MISSOURI

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.

AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AT THE INTERSECTION OF THIS FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT.
THOUGH A VERY WARM LAYER OF AIR A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL HINDER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE LOW
CENTER DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SEVERITY AS IT SPREADS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AND DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
AIR MASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...WHILE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
APPEARS THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
MISSOURI WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING
AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AFFECTED AREA.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..EVANS.. 04/18/2006
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