Public Severe Weather Outlook

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Thunderbolt

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PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 AM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES AND ADJACENT NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
TRANSPORT A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

INTERACTION OF THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WITH THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE COMBINATION
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE
INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE COMPLEXES TONIGHT OVER MINNESOTA WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BECOMING DAMAGING WINDS...SOME OF WHICH
COULD REACH HURRICANE FORCE.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..MEAD.. 08/05/2006
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