Well it appears the
old/cheap antenna is dieing.
Ah, Ed Fong and his magical antennas.
Does
this antenna look legitimate, is it worth the price, and will it out perform the old one?
Yes, decent antenna. Not hobby grade stuff, but not top of the line either. For the price, it's an OK product. Commscope is a good decent brand name. This is sort of a lower tier commercial antennas, but for budget friendliness, it's a probably a good enough product for GMRS use. It's easy to spend $1500 or more on a similar but higher tier antenna. For hobby use, it's pretty good and much better than what you'll find from the ham radio shops.
450-470 MHz 9 dB 4-Bay Offset Base Station Antenna
www.talleycom.com
I've got an account with Talley and can get that antenna for $387, so shop around. The website you linked to is giving you the MRSP price. You should be able to do better.
I use Telewave folded dipoles for a number of work applications. I current have a Telewave ANT-450d sitting here in my office waiting for install. Those are a higher tier antenna, but you'll pay quite a bit more for them. This one is a single bay, and it cost about the same as the 4 bay you linked to. Better build quality, but you'll pay for it. This one is going at a remote site that often sees hurricane force winds in the winter, so the cost is worth it for the application. Can't say I could justify paying that much for hobby use, though.
To my understanding higher gain will help me as the antenna is just above the tree line and we are in a mostly flat area. I'd also imagine this would hold up better over time, but I'm still a bit new to the radio world so I figured I'd check with the experts first.
Higher gain will focus more of your power out towards the horizon. That's good for getting as much coverage as you can.
But you'll be limited by antenna height, distance to horizon, height of the antenna on the other end, etc. Doesn't matter how much antenna you throw and the problem, sooner or later, dirt gets in the way and the signal drops off. Higher is better, as it puts the distance to horizon farther out. You might find that a lower gain antenna works just as well from low levels.