Severe Weather Possible Today!

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peterjmag

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Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
0108 Am Cdt Thu Sep 21 2006

Valid 211200z - 221200z

...there Is A Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms Across Portions Of The
Cntrl/srn Plains And Ozarks...

Corrected For Day Of Week

...cntrl-srn Plains And Ozarks...
Potent Upper Low Currently Moving Into The Srn Rockies Will Spin Ewd
To Ks By Thu Aftn...then Deamplify As It Swings Newd Into The Mo Vly
By 12z Friday. Sfc Low Developing Over Sern Co Will Develop Into Ks
On Thu With A Dryline/front Sweeping Ewd Across Ern Ks...cntrl/ern
Ok And Cntrl Tx During The Aftn/eve. A Warm Front...marking The
Leading Edge Of More Quality Boundary Layer Moisture...will Begin To
Lift Nwd Through Ern Tx And The Lwr Ms Vly Thu And Thu Night.

Convection And Clouds Assocd With A Warm Conveyor Will Be Ongoing
From N Tx Nwd Into Ks And Neb At The Start Of The Period. This
Conveyor Should Shift Ewd Into The Ozarks By Aftn...with Potential
For Clearing To Develop Upstream Ahead Of The Approaching Dryline/
Front.

Modified Gulf Moisture Characterized By Sfc Dew Points In The 50s
Will Advect Or Be Maintained Across Cntrl And Ern Sections Of Ks/ok
Through Thu Aftn. More Robust Moisture /dew Points In The 60s To
Lwr 70s/ Will Arrive Across Nern Tx...sern Ok And Swrn Ar Late Thu
Aftn/eve.

Strongest Large Scale Forcing For Ascent Assocd With The Approaching
System /swly H5 Jet 75+ Kts/ Will Translate Across Ks/nrn Ok Where
Instability Will Be Tempered By Modest Moisture. Magnitude Of
Forcing...however...may Compensate And Tstms Will Likely Initiate
Early Thu Aftn From Cntrl Ks Swd Into Cntrl Ok. Vertical Shear Will
Be Sufficient For Supercells. The Strong Forcing Will Likely Result
In Short Line Segments With Large Hail And Damaging Winds The
Primary Threat As The Storms Move Into Ern Ks And Nern Ok By Thu
Eve. This Activity Will Probably Weaken As It Moves Into Mo...but
Strong Llj And Strong Mid-level Flow May Maintain At Least An Isold
Severe Threat Overnight Into Cntrl/ern Mo.

Farther S...00z Models Suggest That The Srn Extent Of Aftn Tstm
Development May Grow Upscale Into A Small Mcs Thu Night From Sern Ok
And Nern Tx Into Ar. This Region Will Be Along Srn Periphery Of
Stronger Height Falls And Nrn Edge Of Returning Tropical Moisture
Regime. Forecast Kinematic Profiles Are Quite Supportive For
Supercells And Isold Tornadoes Could Occur With The More Discrete
Cells Across Sern Ok...extreme Nern Tx And Parts Of Swrn Ar.
Otherwise...large Hail And Damaging Winds Will Be Likely.

..racy.. 09/21/2006
 

mfolta1

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tulsa okla.
with all of the dynamics in place there is one upsetting factor,, no dewpoints! if we had mid 60 dewpoints or higher we would be in for severe wx with tornadoes. i am seeing a chance of moisture surging northward thru friday but ive seen these sceneraios before and they dont pan out. im also afraid the clouds will hold tough and keep temps down today so lack of good surface heating could ruin severe chances..
 

peterjmag

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Yeah that's what I'm thinking as well but I'd rather be aware that the possibility exists rather then get caught with our pants down.
 

mfolta1

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hey,,just a minute,,, i like getting caught with my pants down,,,hehe....whats your call sign? what repeater do you hang out on...im k8tvs....
 

peterjmag

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Mark,
Matt WX5LIB, myself KE5JVM, and others have been hanging out on 147.39 in the evening from about 6 to midnight as well as around 5 to 6 A.M. I personally monitor 147.39 all the time now. Give us a shout we would love to hear from you! Talk to you later.


P.J.
 

car2back

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Tulsa, OK
That cell that started in the Sand Springs/Mannford area looked awefully big as it was headed into Washington/Rogers Counties... atleast it's going fast!

I am really gonna have to get my ticket now! this weather stuff is awesome! I have never monitored WX5TUL during a weather event before :D

EDIT: I wish I had a digital camera; the back view of that storm from Skiatook as it was entering Nowata Co was awesome with the Sunset shining on it!
 
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OkRob

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phil_smith said:
That cell that started in the Sand Springs/Mannford area looked awefully big as it was headed into Washington/Rogers Counties... atleast it's going fast!
That storm that went through Mannford actually started in far eastern Lincoln county, near Stroud. I watched it forming down there and it went near Shamrock and over towards Mannford from there.

phil_smith said:
I am really gonna have to get my ticket now! this weather stuff is awesome! I have never monitored WX5TUL during a weather event before :D
I was telling you how easy it was about 3-4 months ago. Go for it! :)

- Rob
 

red8

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Messages
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Location
denham springs la.
Severe Weather Possible Today

phil_smith said:
That cell that started in the Sand Springs/Mannford area looked awefully big as it was headed into Washington/Rogers Counties... atleast it's going fast!

I am really gonna have to get my ticket now! this weather stuff is awesome! I have never monitored WX5TUL during a weather event before :D

EDIT: I wish I had a digital camera; the back view of that storm from Skiatook as it was entering Nowata Co was awesome with the Sunset shining on it!
Phil,
I saw on the local news tonight that 3 tornados touched down in southwest Louisiana today in Iberia Parish these were confirmed. I
also saw the front that we're on the edge of. The storms are moving
to the north from the Gulf of Mexico we here on the Bayou maybe in for a rough night. Rain is in the forecast for Friday. It looked like the
front was a warm front coming up from the Gulf through Baton Rouge
through the northwest corner of the Louisiana through southwest Arkansas into the Sooner State.
 
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