Significant TORNADO outbreak is likely!!

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Thunderbolt

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MAJOR TORNADO outbreak is likely!!

[font=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN MO INTO SERN IA AND PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL
IL...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM AR NWD TO SRN IA
AND EWD INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NERN TX TO THE
MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
...

STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET...
CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WILL TRACK
NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TODAY REACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY 12Z MONDAY. 60-120 METER HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED WITH THIS
TROUGH AS IT TRACKS NEWD WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
SSWLY LLJ /50+ KT/ FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER STRENGTHENING /60-80 KT/ OF THIS
LLJ IS EXPECTED SECOND HALF OF FORECAST PERIOD AS IT VEERS TO SWLY
FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/ LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY EXTEND
FROM LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO OK...AND THEN
WNWWD TO A SURFACE LOW OVER ERN CO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NWD
AS A WARM FRONT TODAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
TRANSLATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN KS REACHING FAR NRN
MO BY 00Z...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN PARTS OF
IL/IN/OH. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND SWD ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE ACROSS FAR
ERN PARTS OF KS/OK INTO NERN TX ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCI FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD ZONE OF RICH MOISTURE
RETURN...ALREADY UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NWD
TODAY FROM THE SERN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID MS/OH
RIVER VALLEYS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S SHOULD REACH AS
FAR NORTH AS SERN MO/PARTS OF SRN IL...WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD TO WRN PA.

WHILE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A LEAD SRN PLAINS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z
SUNDAY ACROSS LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY FREE OF
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION. WITH INSOLATION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ON NOSE OF RETURNING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 2000 J/KG IN SURFACE WARM SECTOR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY LIKELY
BEING DISCRETE FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE. STRONG
LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING TORNADOES...SOME
STRONG TO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS CENTRAL/ NRN MO INTO SERN IA AND
WRN/CENTRAL IL.
IN ADDITION...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

INITIAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE THIS
EVENING SPREADING EWD FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE GREATER THREAT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO IND/WRN KY.

..PETERS/GRAMS.. 03/12/2006
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Thunderbolt

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This is an extremely dangerous situation!!

[font=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

VALID 121712Z - 130115Z

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW VIOLENT....LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTHEASTERN IOWA
WESTERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN KANSAS
MOST OF MISSOURI

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE MID SOUTH AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY

A VOLATILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SITUATION IS UNFOLDING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND JET MAX WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST SURFACE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON. WE
EXPECT THAT SEVERAL AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MISSOURI/EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN IOWA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT. SUPERCELLS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG DRY LINE EASTERN KS AND EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI
VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RACE
EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY VIOLENT...LONG
TRACK TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.


OTHER POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALONG A DRY LINE EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THESE WILL SPREAD A THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING DAMAGING TORNADOES...ACROSS ARKANSAS
INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HALES.. 03/12/2006
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Thunderbolt

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[font=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 73...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

CORRECTED FOR WATCH REPLACEMENTS

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN KANSAS
MOST OF MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 1000
PM CST.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION


DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH
...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF EMPORIA
KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 69...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER
70...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 71...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH NUMBER 72. WATCH NUMBER 69 70 71 72 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1155 AM CST.

DISCUSSION...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A PARTICULARLY INTENSE UPPER TROUGH
AND JET STREAM MOVING INTO CENTRAL U.S. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE
HAIL...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING LONG TRACK TORNADOES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS WILL INITIATE VICINITY OF
DRY LINE ERN KS AND ADDITIONALLY VICINITY WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS MO INTO IL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

...HALES
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