The Seattle system is uplifting to P25 with AES encryption in 2Q06, which is only a little more than one-and-a-half years away. As to costs, the infrastructure alone for this system was over $70 million (and rising everyday as additional sites and receivers are added), with encryption costs being reasonably small, in light of these huge infrastructure numbers. Seattle PD is already carrying IMBE equipped Motorola ASTRO Saber II portables. Their contractual encryption uplift costs for these radios is $230 per radio under their original contract. $184,000 to uplift with AES modules (800 SPD portables) is a small price to pay (about the same as the fully loaded cost of 1 cop for one year). Remember that this system serves almost all Gov't/Metro users in the Puget Sound Area. Only Seattle PD and King County PD are going encrypted at the get go, with the other Public Safety Agencies in the Puget Sound Area following suit in a project managed roll-out. So, you will still be able to listen to the bureaucrats, etc. but soon, there will be no Public Safety to monitor in Seattle. The same trend will roll out across the country.
I challenge anyone to show me even one single example of folks monitoring DES-OFB or AES encrypted P25 traffic.
The only argument that the head-in-the-sand folks have to use against encryption is the additional marginal costs incurred. Keep in mind that you are fighting a losing battle! Costs are going down---WAY down, so time is on the side of cheap encryption. AES is already down to a list price of under $400 on a new XTL5000/XTS5000. Under volume contracts, some Agencies in the DHS are getting AES for $200 per radio. A year or two from now, we may see sub-$200 AES list prices. That would mean volume discount prices could be in the sub-$100 arena. Now what stands against encryption?
If scanner enthusiasts are relying on the Public to support them, fahgettaboutit! Check out the “Patriot Act,” etc. if you think the Gov't is going to be shy about encryption! As time goes by, the Public will become even more supportive of encryption, especially as Secretary Tom Ridge, AG John Ashcroft, etc. make their cases. BTW, I FULLY SUPPORT the “Patriot Act” and Secretary Ridge, AG Ashcroft, and their colleagues and what they are trying to do: Protect Us from The Evil Doers!
I sure as heck never predicted the demise of scanners due to UHF, Trunking, etc. These were all technical issues, easily solved. Alternatively stated, this is simply the progression of technology.
BTW, I've heard the argument that digital will never replace analog in cellular. Yeah, right. Also, there is the argument that P25 will never replace FM. Yeah, right.
So, burry your head in the sand and gleefully (and naively) hope that the Gov't won't encrypt, and Al Keida will just go away, because we don't like them. Yeah, right...
Be careful how much of that scanner company stock you buy. The guy with the MBA can tell you the story about the Horse & Buggy!