Tropical Storm Dean!!

[spiritwolfpr]

Tropical Storm Dean emerged in the central Atlantic this morning and could strengthen into a major hurricane within the next five days.

At the same time, forecasters adjusted the projected path on a course that would put Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba and South Florida more under the gun.

Under the current forecast, the system would grow into a minimal hurricane on Friday morning, cross over the northern Lesser Antilles on Saturday morning and be at Puerto Rico's doorstep on Sunday morning with winds of almost 110 mph. That would be just shy of Category 3 status.



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Tropical Storm Dean
Updated: 11 a.m. EDT
Location: 11.7 N, 39.4 W
Moving: W at 23 mph
Wind: 40 mph, gusts to 50 mph
Pressure: 1004 mb (29.64 in)



However, because the system still was almost 1,500 miles from the Lesser Antilles, or about 2,800 miles from Miami, the predicted track could contain large errors, the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County said.

As of 11 a.m. today, Dean was galloping west at 23 mph with sustained winds of 40 mph. Its tropical force winds extended out 35 miles from its center, making it a relatively small system at this point. However, as it intensifies, forecasters expect it to expand considerably.

 

[SAR923]

I will bet you that it runs into a large trough that's setting up over the east coast this weekend and recurves into the Atlantic before it get to PR. At least I hope that's what will happen.

 

[thadood]

Based on current forcast models and status of the storm , this thing is looking to me like another katrina or rita heading for the gulf, but lets all hope not, i hope SAR2401 is right

 

[Thunderbolt]

I was watching a news report tonight about Dean and they feel within the next 48 hours it will be a Catagory 4 storm, and will make the turn heading into the Gulf of Mexico. This is not good news!

Now would be the best time time to start loading your HF receivers and scanners up, with all the necessary frequencies. This maybe the start of a very busy season. Moreover, there is another area of disturbed weather that moved off the Cape Verde area of Africa today. This area will also have to be monitored for further development as well.

73s

Ron

 

[SAR923]

I think PR is pretty safe since it looks like Dean will continue south and west. The recurve scenario is looking less likely so the models want to take it into Belize and the Yucatan. I don't think it will make category 4 until it is well clear of the Antilles but the GFDL model has it as a CAT 5 hitting Grand Cayman, which would be a real disaster since they are still recovering from a direct hit from the then Cat 5 Ivan in 2004. The only concern I have is that the scenario is starting to look more like Ivan's path and that did a quick right turn after just missing Jamaica and then coming ashore on the Alabama coast before doing a loop across the southeast US, emerging into the Atlantic, heading south and over Florida, then across the Gulf again before blowing itself out over Texas. Still way too far out to call but the position of the low pressure trough over the Bahamas over the next five days will be a big player in Dean's ultimate track.

 

[DaveNF2G]

PR is going to feel the edge of a Cat 2 or 3 Hurricane Dean, probably tomorrow.

Forecast models do not give good odds on a Gulf Coast strike. Looks more like a Brownsville-to-Galveston event.

 

[mrowl]

I am thinking the same thing:

 

[thadood]

I am thinking the same thing:

The pink triangle path "GFDL" would put this storm right into matagorda county directly head on where im at. then again its only a model

 

[DaveIN]

Now a cat 4.

 

[thadood]

i eat jimmy dean for breakfast

 

[iMONITOR]

La. State of Emergency for Hurricane Dean

La. State of Emergency for Hurricane Dean
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=3494971

 

[DaveNF2G]

It strengthened a lot faster than they forecast!

The largest hurricanes make their own weather. If Dean becomes a large Category 5, then a lot of the forecasts that depend on atmospheric features like steering winds and blocking troughs will go out the window. A strong enough storm will blast right through.

 

[rdale]

Not completely - there are still plenty of 'blocks' that can keep a Cat 5 at bay...

 

[SAR923]

I'm not convinced that Dean will get to CAT 5 or stay there very long if he does. I'm glad I don't live in Jamaica, the Caymans, or the Yucatan though because they are going to get some major damage from Dean. After that, it looks like a much weakened Dean will make landfall in the area of the Texas Mexico border and bring some much needed rain. I wish we could get a little of that rain diverted to Alabama - we're dying of the heat and drought here.

 

[DaveIN]

I hear you, just be careful what you wish for. TX has had enough to start building an ark.

 

[iMONITOR]

Dean just upgraded to category 5!

 

[SAR923]

It will stay at marginal cagtegory 5 strength until about 0700 EDT when it hits the southern Yucatan/Northen Belize area. It should start to loose strength rapidy once it gets over land and it doesn't look like it will regain much strength over the Gulf of Campeche when it hits Tampico, which should avert a major disaster.

The area I'm most concerned about is Belize City. I have been there many times, the last in May. A police officer and I were talking about all the waterfront development that has taken place in BC since Hurricane Hilda in 1955 and he thinks it's a disaster waiting to happen. I hope not.