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Very Severe Hurricane Season Ahead, Say Top Meterologists
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talkpair
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Keep in mind that they're about due to hit one on the head....Perhaps not from skill, but plain luck.
If it's anything like this year's tornado and severe storm season, they just might be right this time !
Seems like there's been a tornado watch almost daily somewhere in the US this June.....some extending to the Canadian border.
Here in the midwest, June is usually about the end of tornado season.
If it's anything like this year's tornado and severe storm season, they just might be right this time !
Seems like there's been a tornado watch almost daily somewhere in the US this June.....some extending to the Canadian border.
Here in the midwest, June is usually about the end of tornado season.
Right... because we all know Colorado State University uses black helicopters to make sure Lowes gives them 10% on any generator sale during hurricane season.
Since I'm just kidding, and you sounded serious, can you explain to me how the forecast by some professors is any sort of economic stimulus - and what purpose they'd have for doing so? The CSU team is CLEARLY not pro-Global Warming.
scannersnstuff
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not getting into a discussion of weather forecasting. a subject that i'll leave to the people better informed than i am. i still go along with the forecasters that say it isn't a question of if, it's a question of when.
my inlaws live in palm beach county fla. 3 year's ago they got hit with <i think> either a tropical storm or a cat.1 hurricane. they were without power foer close to 3 week's. not pretty. they have since bought a generator. does not hurt to have a few extra item's on hand. my wife can alway's consume the extra peanut butter.
my inlaws live in palm beach county fla. 3 year's ago they got hit with <i think> either a tropical storm or a cat.1 hurricane. they were without power foer close to 3 week's. not pretty. they have since bought a generator. does not hurt to have a few extra item's on hand. my wife can alway's consume the extra peanut butter.
knightrider
Member
I am about 140 miles N. of Houston. In the past, one of our biggest problem was all the people evacuating the areas looking for refuge. They tie up the highways, tie up the cell sites, and leave every town they go through a terrible mess, either the stores they stop in, or the motels they stay in. They don't care, because "it ain't theirs"... We end up with the heavy rains, and tornadoes/high winds from the hurricanes that do get close. Last year, there were small towns near here that were out of electricity for over 2 weeks, due to high winds knocking out power lines in another area... Now, I don't like it when anyone cries Wolf, or screams the Sky is Falling, but those of us in the areas who are affected in some way, need to be prodded a little to prepare in advance "just in case". I don't mind having two generators. I can use one, and send another to help someone with medical needs, or I can send BOTH of them, and find another way to get by. We keep extra food and water stored, just because ANYTHING can happen here. We rotate it out, so it doesn't spoil or waste. I guess being on Alert Status, and deployed in the military many years ago, just got me ready for this. Also, having worked in Public Safety for over 30 years kept me on my toes. If you don't want to plan ahead, Just Plain DON'T!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Tell your buds DON'T DO IT!!!!!!!!!!!!! I don't give a Rat's A*# if that is the way you want to be. Just don't expect my family and I to give up what we do have, because you were not convinced to plan ahead. I don't understand why so many have to fault the people who try to save other lives, and pass it off as a way to get rich. I never saw any of it, and don't know of anyone else who did. I did my share of investigations on people for other things they were accused of taking or accepting, but it wasn't anything like is stated here. If you don't live in or near an affected area of the Country, don't worry about it. Maybe it doesn't snow, rain, lightning, or anything else. You may well live in Utopia, but I for one don't!! I retired, and now my son is the one being sent all over the State and Country with a Task Force. He loves it, and respects those he is sent to help. He is REAL happy when he doesn't have to pick up the pieces, and try to get them all to a hospital. He's real happy when they are not searching flood waters looking for bodies. But I guess that is a part most of you NEVER think about. Guts and Glory, or you're being robbed... Keep thinking your way, it gives me something to realize there are still people who don't appreciate what others try to do....
Knightrider
Knightrider
Here's a typical forecast. Pretty precise... right??? :-(
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Lately, they say that every year.
zzdiesel
Member
This year seems to be getting off to a slow start, thank goodness.
Sorry to bring up a thread from the dead, but it's always good to look back on forecasts and see how they panned out. It's now August 14, and the number of storms is far below normal. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy numbers are also about half what one would expect in a normal hurricane season.
August 15 to October 15 is the peak time for Cape Verde hurricanes to form. These tend to be the largest and most powerful hurricanes. There certaily could be some bad hurricanes still this year, but no above normal hurricane season has ever occured that did not have at least five named storms by this date. We've had three so far, and only one minimal hurricane.
The June forecasts from both CU and the NHC have an average accuracy that's just about equal to a coin flip. The August forecasts are a little better, averaging about 60%. The NHC has greatly improved forecast accuaracy when a tropical cyclone is within 48 hours of landfall. There has been virtually no improvement in the accuracy of season forecast of tropical cyclones. This is a good example of how we are developing a better understanding of short term weather but still don't have a clue how climatology works over the longer term. See National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification if you want to see the NHC's own figures on forecast accuracy over the years.
August 15 to October 15 is the peak time for Cape Verde hurricanes to form. These tend to be the largest and most powerful hurricanes. There certaily could be some bad hurricanes still this year, but no above normal hurricane season has ever occured that did not have at least five named storms by this date. We've had three so far, and only one minimal hurricane.
The June forecasts from both CU and the NHC have an average accuracy that's just about equal to a coin flip. The August forecasts are a little better, averaging about 60%. The NHC has greatly improved forecast accuaracy when a tropical cyclone is within 48 hours of landfall. There has been virtually no improvement in the accuracy of season forecast of tropical cyclones. This is a good example of how we are developing a better understanding of short term weather but still don't have a clue how climatology works over the longer term. See National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification if you want to see the NHC's own figures on forecast accuracy over the years.
I plan to "do the math" in another 107 days when the season ends. Nobody can predict what Mother Nature will do. What do you want to bet... they will predict an "above normal" season again in 2011?!
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Hurricane forecasters always remind me of the story about the boy who cried wolf too many times. Ooooooooooops... I guess we have to call then cyclones now!?
I don't know what gave you that idea, but to avoid any future regrets - I'll let you know that's very wrong.
As hard as it is to predict the current season - it's impossible to predict next season. But you got me curious - what are you seeing that shows next year to be above normal?
I'm not predicting next year will be above normal. I'm predicting the weather forecasters will once again "cry wolf" and predict another "above normal season" in 2011. 
H season
Well the east coast has been very hot and dry, NJ has had a above forest fire season for the summer which is not normal . So that part was right. the long term weather from the climatic page shows that South CA and AZ are going into a deep drought over the next 7 months.
Well the east coast has been very hot and dry, NJ has had a above forest fire season for the summer which is not normal . So that part was right. the long term weather from the climatic page shows that South CA and AZ are going into a deep drought over the next 7 months.
VERY GOOD!!
So far they're a bit short of their prediction.... "Hurricane season could be strongest ever say top meteorologists. 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with three to seven becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes". With 3 storms already done... Alex, Bonnie and Colin... we'll need a named storm every 5-6 days now for the prediction to be even close. Bonnie was all over the news and the Weather Channel as the beginning of the monster storms. It came right over me here in SW Florida. I've gotten wetter shaving!
Peak Season Chart...
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Nice chart K4IHS! Did you do that in Powerpoint?
...and that may be coming true...
Wunder Blog : Weather Underground
...and that may be coming true...
Wunder Blog : Weather Underground
From Weather Underground. The link is here... Wunder Blog : Weather Underground
Gotcha - I didn't see the link in your first post so assumed you did that. Thanks.
If I were you, I'd be careful what I wished for.So far they're a bit short of their prediction.... "Hurricane season could be strongest ever say top meteorologists. 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with three to seven becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes". With 3 storms already done... Alex, Bonnie and Colin... we'll need a named storm every 5-6 days now for the prediction to be even close. Bonnie was all over the news and the Weather Channel as the beginning of the monster storms. It came right over me here in SW Florida. I've gotten wetter shaving!
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