Let me guess, Economics major? I think not.
He may not be, but I am, and currently employed in doing research for products and their respective markets.
The high level view of the influx of Chinese radios to the market is going to cause some damage to the big 3, especially in the HT market, but I do not think that it will have a lasting impact for the sole reason that HAMs are typically very demanding in their technical requirements and also rather well researched. Of course, this will not stop someone from buying a few chinese radios just to "check them out" while they have a nice Kenwood or ICOM transceiver at home in the shack.
There will undoubtedly be an influx of novice and illegal operators as well, but I do not think that they will last long simply out of sheer necessity. The unliscenced people that buy these radios are going to be the folks getting a clue after watching the survivalist / prepper TV shows, and then go out and buy a few radios, make a few half-hearted attempts to make it work, never hit a repeater, and then throw them in their bag next to their MREs and pistol. :wink: Once these guys get sorted out, I don't think it will be much of an issue. The next set of abusers, will be a folks who just don't care about band plan or liscensure and want to give these to the kids to play around with or tell them when to come home for dinner. Not to worry, they will consistently continue to purchase even cheaper GMRS type radios instead.
So in conclusion, the knuckleheads will sort themselves out over time. The HT market will likely take some hits. Luckily, Kenwood and Yaesu are far too well funded to need to worry about those markets too much. I'd have too look up more about ICOM's size and sales though, but I don't think any of the big 3 are likely at any risk. They will just continue to innovate and move to the high end of the market that they already do well in.
As for me, I hate Chinese junk. But these cheap radios may be a way for me to jump from just being a scanner enthusiast to taking my FCC test.:wink: