It was over 780K in 2021. So it's dropped by 50K since then. In 2023 it was 755,368, so it's dropped by over 4K in the last year.
Is the number of US ham radio licensees on a downward trend lately? Yes, slightly, but no more so than several short duration corrections at several times in the past, in the 70's, 90's, and 00's. The general trend, since 2007, has been up significantly.
In Dec 2021 there were ~779,500 licensed US hams. As of Dec 2023 (5 months ago) there were ~754,500. This is a change of ~25,000 hams, or a dip of about 3.2%. As I said above, historically there have been periodic dips similar to this in ham licensees, so this is not unprecedented or even uncommon. From June of 2001 to June of 2007 there was a reduction of ~30,000, from the 2001 high of ~684,000, making that a dip of about 4.4%, more than the current dip so far. Before the current dip the number of ham licensees had been in a steady increase since 2007, or roughly 14 years of continuous increase. That is an unusually long trend in historic ham radio licensing numbers.
And then look at who those licenses that went away over the last 2 to 3 years were. 1,000 Novices, a license class that has not been issued for ~23 years. 4,000 Advanced, also a license that has not been issued in over ~23 years. ~22,000 Technician licensees went away. Extra and General licensee numbers increased (roughly 1,000 each).
So some, by definition, older hams aged out, for one reason or another. Some entry-level hams went away. And the number of, arguably, more serious hams increased (slightly).
The current reduction in ham licenses also follows a substantial increase in the cost of getting a ham radio license. It currently averages about $50 to get a license (~$15 for the VECs, and $35 for the FCC fee). This means that since April 2022 the cost to acquire a ham license has, for most people, more than doubled. I strongly suspect this has had some impact on ham license numbers, driving away some casual licensees. It would not surprise me if the majority of ham license losses were simply driven by this fact, casual ham tickets acquired on a whim or as part of a “prepper” plan, tickets that now cost substantially more money to renew.
Some argue that a $35 fee is not enough to keep someone from getting or renewing a ham license. Typically, they use the argument that ham radio is an expensive hobby, so that small a fee should have no impact. But, that ($35) is the cost of a new radio (CCR) for someone just experimenting with the hobby, someone not sure they want to be in the hobby but it was cheap to get into, so lets see where this takes us.
If all you have into the hobby is a $35 CCR, then a $35 renewal fee probably hurts.
And, just to keep it more or less on topic, this end of the ham radio use spectrum is the end MFJ plays in.
T!