Here's the skinny of what we know so far on the TPS system.
Here's the current state of equipment;
Toronto Fire: Portables-XTS3000, Mobiles-MCS2000 & XTL5000
Toronto EMS: Portables-XTS5000, Mobiles-Not Installed
Toronto Police: Portables-MTS2000 (switching to XTS5000), Mobiles: Spectra (switching to XTL5000)
Note, Toronto EMS DO have mobiles, but they are on the EDACS system so they "don't count" right now.
As is right now, they could easily upgrade certain users to digital and even encryption, without needing any chances as TPS already has numerous digital/encrypted users.
However, if they are going to switch to an ASTRO25 9600 system (as GO Transit has), everyone would need to be digital. This means Toronto Fire would need all new portables and mobiles and Toronto EMS would need to get mobiles.
So when you look at the numbers, it isn't THAT improbable that they would switch to a fully 9600 system. As for certain users not wanting digital - too bad. Digital is the future, suck it up, it works/sounds better anyway.
Now, as we know - Toronto Police has been slowly swapping out their portables and mobiles. 4 District has already been completed and many other units are well on their way (Courts and Parking Enforcement for example, are I'd say 75% there).
Given the recent addition to several hundred radio IDs, I would say something is on the horizon.
However, we'll have to wait and see what happens. The day we hear a 9600 control channel on an existing TPS frequency - we'll have our answer. Of course, that says nothing to the topic of encryption. Personally, I hope they don't encrypt everything but from a dollars perspective, there's really not THAT much of a difference - and the users benefit from the extra that is spent.
Then there's our "end of the world" theory that has been tossed around a lot (mostly by a renegade trigger-happy media person) that everything City related will join this system - Police, Fire, EMS, TTC, Works, By-Law, Corporate Security, Hydro etc... That'll be a bad day for us. Personally speaking, I'm perfectly happy as long as I can listen to my EMS and Fire. I don't really give a hoot about TPS - but I know a lot of ya'll do!