4/13 severe wx So. plains

[redhelmet13]

This mornings MRF is interesting - I will continue to watch the later runs of the MRF, ETA and GFS on this one. Question is moisture return. If this unfolds as I suspect - it will be a rather active severe day.

Ed C.

 

[rdale]

The MRF and the Eta models no longer exist... The MRF was replaced by the GFS years ago, and the Eta was replaced by the WRF (it runs in a time slot called "NAM" so that's the actual name) last year.

 

[redhelmet13]

I stand corrected! I was looking at several different model runs though. AFD from KFWD mentions a dryline push though N. Central TX Fri.

Ed

 

[rdale]

No problem - however I think that there won't be enough moisture in place to make this much of an event...

 

[KC0UHS]

No problem - however I think that there won't be enough moisture in place to make this much of an event...

actually, latest SPC analysis does not show any problem with significant moisture return for this event. looks like there will absolutely be a significant severe weather outbreak. only thing to be determined now is whether this system will take a southern track, or a more northerly track, which will determine the areas to be effected Friday and Saturday.

 

[rdale]

Agreed it is looking better now...