EXPERTS PREDICT A LONG, DEEP SOLAR MINIMUM

[w2xq]

"If you like solar minimum, good news: It could last for years. That was one of the predictions issued last week by an international panel of experts who gathered at NOAA's annual Space Weather Workshop to forecast the next solar cycle. If the panel is correct, already-low sunspot counts will reach a nadir sometime between July 2019 and Sept 2020, followed by a slow recovery toward a new Solar Maximum in 2023-2026."

Spaceweather.com Time Machine

Time to learn how to DX the graylline on 160m.

 

[w2xq]

"Scientists predicting the sun's activity for Solar Cycle 25 say it's likely to be much like that of current Cycle 24, which is declining and predicted to bottom out in 2019 or 2020. Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel experts said Solar Cycle 25 may get off to a slow start, but is anticipated to peak between 2023 and 2026 with a sunspot range of 95 to 130. This is well below the typical average of 140 to 220 sunspots per solar cycle."

ARRL Letter

And the referenced NOAA workshop has a webpage 2019 Space Weather Workshop - 1-5 April, 2019 | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center here but the conference notes from whence the above originated haven't been been updated yet. When you read this after today, Aoril 11, check the page to see what NOAA posted.

 

[invergordon]

Is solar minimum a good thing for monitoring HF frequencies or a bad thing?

 

[RRR]

So much for this "man-made Global warming" nonsense!

 

[KB4MSZ]

Figures.

I return to Ham radio after a 30 year absence and this is the reward. I guess if I was a sailor coming out of retirement I would find the seas all evaporated.

 

[N4GIX]

Is solar minimum a good thing for monitoring HF frequencies or a bad thing?

It is most assuredly a "Bad Thing". Propagation on HF is already pretty much crap as it is. The only good thing is that they are not predicting another Maunder Minimum for the next cycle.

On the other hand that doesn't mean the bands are "dead". 40m and 20m are pretty busy on weekends, but during the week they are virtually deserted.

There are at least six state QSO parties on 40m this afternoon. I just made two contacts while typing this reply...

 

[Ubbe]

As I understand the weather types dictate how radiosignals can bounce between different temperatured layers of air close to earth for the short range, like neighbouring states, communications at different frequencies and are unaffected by a solar minimum. There are charts that are used for HF communications, from ships and airplanes, that state what frequencies should be used at different times of the day to use those temperature differencies to your advantage to reach a certain distance by bouncing the radiowaves off the temperature layers.

The amount of energy from the suns eruptions and sun spots sends particals to earth that have an impact of the very high layers in the inosphere that starts to work much more as a radio signal deflector as it normally does. Short wave signals that normally goes out in space are reflected back to earth and strong signals can bounce off earth back up again to the inosphere and back down again, making it possible for radio waves to go around earth so you will hear your own tranmissions with a one second delay.

/Ubbe

 

[poltergeisty]

Those poor, poor Cuban spies out in the field...

 

[poltergeisty]

there are charts that are used for HF communications, from ships and airplanes,

That's actually interesting with regard to planes because planes that perform ETOPS use HF for position reports. I gotta wonder how this sun cycle is affecting that?

 

[ka3jjz]

While it's true that some earth based weather can affect HF propagation - thunderstorms and thundersnow will increase noise levels - this sad prediction means that, under nominal conditions, the lower HF bands are going to be better for the foreseeable future. Now that doesn't mean that the higher bands - say 25 meters and up - will be dead. That's certainly not the case, but they won't be as easy for any long range DX as they had been in the past when solar conditions were a bit better. Any solar hiccups like a rare flare or a coronal hole could stir things up for a time and perhaps make the higher bands better, but it won't last.

We're unfortunately at the mercy of Sol, and I'm afraid it has no concern for us DXers (heh)

 

[DaveNF2G]

That's actually interesting with regard to planes because planes that perform ETOPS use HF for position reports. I gotta wonder how this sun cycle is affecting that?

They are moving to satellite. The Atlantic Ocean routes are in a full-time demo program now.

 

[w2xq]

Is solar minimum a good thing for monitoring HF frequencies or a bad thing?

A solar minimum can be a good thing for 160/80/40m DXing. Wheras Radio propagation - Wikipedia provides the basics, you could also come up to speed using the Radio Communications Dashboard | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center information. Or read my article in http://w2xq.com/assets/files/writings/Ham-Radio-Horizons-1979-04.pdf that I wrote in 1979; see p.42 ff. HTH.

 

[ka3jjz]

A good place to start, without a whole lot of jargon (which may turn off some newcomers) is the AE4RV presentation - make sure your Flash Player is enabled.

Propagation Primer - Flash Movie by AE4RV

Mike

 

[Boombox]

As a MW DXer primarily, this extended dip should theoretically be good for MW but in reality the conditions have been poorer than they were in 2012 when sunspots were higher.

I think the solar radiation has dipped a hair. The leaves on the trees in my area are a week late. They were late last year as well.

 

[simpilo]

As long as there are signals I won't worry about solar minimum. Nothing can be done about it anyway. Today on 20m during 0 SN SFI 68 below 70 Bz -7.7 A4 Kp2(good 160-40 conditions) I hear a station with a foreign accent as I type. (2234UTC). There is a small amount of flux. It won't get any deeper than this.

 

[Boombox]

^^^^^ The problem with an extended solar minimum is it may rush the tendency of broadcasters to shut down because of reduced effectiveness in reach. Thus, reducing the number of signals.

Add to that the tendency for some hams to be fair weather hams, it could affect the activity levels on the SW bands as well.

 

[simpilo]

4 regions on the sun remaining active. These regions increase and decrease over a period of 4 days or so.
http://stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu/multistatus.php
This webpage helps give an idea what's going on. Its a 4 day animated gif image from SOHO over the span of 4 days. Those regions don't move very quick. They move rather slow. All shortwave listeners and broadcasters alike should use these webpages every 4 or 5 days to see whats up. Those regions that protrude outward are helpful or can be dreadful. The west limb has a region that likes to spew flares. The east limb activity is a few weeks away. Add it to your bookmarks.

 

[KB4MSZ]

I had a 10 meter opening this morning that went up the central US from Texas to Indiana.

 

[w2xq]

A few other websites I've bookmarked over the decades while I have been writing about the subject, in no particular order:
SOLARHAM.com | Solar Cycle 25 | Space Weather Website
WM7D dot Net
SWS - Radio and Space Services
www.SolarMonitor.org
ISES
Homepage | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Homepage
SIDC - Solar Influences Data analysis Center
Welcome / Bienvenue
SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
Tromsø Geophysical Observatory
Helioviewer.org
Tromsø Geophysical Observatory
Hope these help. Have fun. Giddyup.

 

[WX4JCW]

the last few days i have noticed even Public safety and GPS signals degraded