peterjmag
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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS...NRN
OK...CNTRL OK...
...OKLAHOMA/KANSAS/NORTH TEXAS...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AN IMPRESSIVE 80 TO 100 KT
MID-LEVEL JET WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. SOUTH OF THE
AXIS OF THE JET...CONVECTION SHOULD NOT INITIATE THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WEAKENING THE CAP AND RAPIDLY INITIATING STORMS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z ALONG THE INTERSTATE-35 CORRIDOR IN ERN KS WITH
THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING SSWWD INTO NRN AND CNTRL OK DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
POSITION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL CERTAINTY
THAT A LARGE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NNE TO SSW
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID-EVENING.
AS THE MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 50 KT IN NCNTRL KS TO ABOUT 75 KT IN SRN OK. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL FROM SE KS SSWWD ACROSS WCNTRL
OK WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IN NORTH TX. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL OK AND
SRN KS SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE SUGGESTING
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE-35 CORRIDOR
ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. IF A SQUALL-LINE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS BY EARLY EVENING...THEN
THE DOMINATE SEVERE THREATS WOULD LIKELY BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING STORM MODE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CONCENTRATED AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WARRANTS A
MODERATE RISK FROM ERN KS SSWWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL OK.
..BROYLES.. 03/22/2009
