Solar Cycle 25 (SC25) is official

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Status Quo (NASA SILSO ESA) of the heliophysics community determined solar nadir occurred December 2019. Now they think we are in SC25 now.

My input: It will take a year for the sun to show significant increase because solar minimums have shown this before. Equatorial bands diminish while mid latitude bands increase at a slow rate. If I was big as the sun I wouldn't be in a hurry either lol. Lesson: don't get in a hurry. SC25 is slow to ramp up. The sun doesn't work based on consumer feedback "it should be stronger", "something isn't right because it's not doing what I want it to do".

Article Reference

Solar Cycle 25 Is Here. NASA, NOAA Scientists Explain What That Means - NASA

Solar Cycle 25 has begun. During a media event on Tuesday, experts from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) discussed their

www.nasa.gov

 

[jwt873]

Here's another news release on cycle 25. Hello Solar Cycle 25

I see in the article it states that 24 was one of the weakest cycles in 100 years and the fourth weakest ever recorded.... Hopefully 25 will be a bit better.. But unfortunately they're forecasting it to be another dud.. Solar Cycle 25 Forecast Update | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Only 5.5 years to the next peak.. Can hardly wait

 

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Here's another news release on cycle 25. Hello Solar Cycle 25

I see in the article it states that 24 was one of the weakest cycles in 100 years and the fourth weakest ever recorded.... Hopefully 25 will be a bit better.. But unfortunately they're forecasting it to be another dud.. Solar Cycle 25 Forecast Update | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Only 5.5 years to the next peak.. Can hardly wait

I have a motto when it comes to the sun. Observe but don't predict! I post on twitter nearly everyday my observations if any oscillations at 55 degrees and eruptions with shockwaves that cause little bright regions to form longitudinal along the same latitude. those shockwaves can start oscillations at that latitude. Those are little 'terminator" events skinning off old solar cycle flux. I post active regions, sunspots even if tiny pores. I look for prominence at the equator and study their spin direction. I look for 55 degree latitude prominence and do the same. I follow Dr Scott W. McIntosh from National Center for Atmospheric Research. He studies Earth-Sun connection. He and his team of scientists have found terminator events follow a specific "sun clock" and they begin at 55 degrees latitude. SC25 first active regions where observed within the PIL zones about the first 3 months of 2011. They migrated toward 55 degrees after solar max of SC24 then faded. There is inward flows they are trying to figure out why that's happening.
I have been told those forecasts models have missing information related to unanswered mysteries of the solar cycle. They freely admitted they don't know enough. Also there are many many forecast models that show a different prediction. All they're trying to do is get more funding and taking a big risk knowing there isn't enough data and discovery to predict 11 years ahead.

Take everything you hear with a grain of salt and do diligence. We can't get close enough for a bona fide data sampling. As in right at the mouth of the beast. Not even Solar Parker Probe can get close enough.

The analogy I want to use is like this. It's like asking a dentist to give you a dental examine from 1/2 mile away with binoculars. He isn't going to see much. So he calls his colleagues and they look through his binoculars and then they vote what they think is wrong. they may vote cavity but nothing there.

That's how they dream up a solar cycle prediction. They vote on it. There is a serious problem with status quo in heliophysics. Old timers are stuck in their ways preventing new findings from being considered. It's all centered around a misguided ideology. So I let it go and do observations and I always ignore the predictions. I let the sun do it's thing. There is no other option. Just observe!

 

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North Hemisphere Mimics South Hemisphere:

Let's get on with SC25. You all want sunspots I want sunspots but as always with the sun's cycles first things first. Things need to happen first and I spotted one of those things happen while I was observing today's AIA171 and AIA193 images. I changed AIA171 filter color from yellow to white/blue neutral so we can easier see the brighter regions and flaring. AIA193 is good for CME's. I let AIA193 stay at it's bronze color.

In my video it is best to go full screen, right click in the middle of the video and select Loop which is top of the list and ensure 720p. I circled two areas in the south and two areas in the north hemispheres. Those 4 areas share the same angle. Watch the south circles, first, which are below the static equatorial line (yellow grid). They will be the ones that fill in first with bright regions then focus on the two circles above the yellow static equatorial line they immediately fill in with bright regions that are stronger after the two in the south dissipate. This is Solar cycle 25 showing it is about ready to start it's longitudinal bands with bright regions. These are also in loose clusters of active plage.

Now let's see how weak Old SC24 is at the solar equator (the wavy magnetic equator not the geographical static grid line equator). In the video we see just how weak old SC24 really is. One sole bright region west (west and east are opposite on the sun) of 0 degrees latitude right on the static line doesn't last a day just fizzles really fast. That's very weak which allows that new cycle flux to migrate trans-equatorial creating that 'mimic' like behavior.

Here is my video please enjoy.
(I created it in JHelioviewer)

(If you have a really good trained eye coordination you will see part of the "mimicking" I didn't mention!)

 

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Solar Cycle 25 New Activity:

Ham operators and shortwave listeners alike love to see bright regions. Bright regions may or may not have sunspots but they have flux and flux enhances the F layers and that makes HF bounce better. At this phase of SC25 we see small sunspot pores which are to small to get a NOAA SWPC number. But they have flux and we are now seeing a small bump in activity. Today the sun fired up three bright regions. This time it did what we needed to see in rise time. One bright region emerged then following 2 bright regions on both sides of it emerged in unison latitudinal. Also I noticed the rippling at the south Polar Inversion Line (PIL). That rippling is a indicator the sun is brewing more bright regions.
The technology aboard the Solar Dynamic Observatory allowed us to see this happening in higher resolution. SC25 is SDO's first solar cycle rise time. We can see what Stereo Ahead and Behind didn't have the resolution to see.

I outlined these three bright regions with a red rectangle for you. Watch my video and enjoy.
Created in JHelioviewer

 

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2 New sunspot Groups in 24 hours!

Do you want sunspots? I sure do!

We seen 2 new sunspot groups emerge in 24 hours and they are nice ones in southeast hemisphere. Better structured loops in their active regions. This side of the sun last month was quiet but since we had rippling on both Polar Inversion Lines on October 6-7th things started to happen. Watch my video you can see both groups. Go full screen right click select Loop ensure 720p.

Created in JHelioviewer

 

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Sunspot Genesis

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has number both Active Regions. Their sunspots have evolved and in their second evolution which is a bit larger than their initial appearance. 10.7cm flux is 72 at the time I type this post. It might go up later on.

Enjoy the video
Created in JHelioviewer

 

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Bright Region Genesis - The Climb Out of Solar Minimum

Today I bring you a view of the Earth facing (Solar Dynamics Observatory Earth orbit) solar disk. 97 image time-lapse at 20 fps. We see the climb out of solar minimum creep up on us. I am guessing another 3 solar rotations (27 days makes 1 solar rotation) for the longitudinal bands to break loose. 44 degrees west and southwest there are 3 small bright regions that are longitudinal with each other that has appeared to the west (right side of) AR2774. The one north of the geophysical equator on the Stonyhurst grid is trans-equatorial to the 2 in the south that emerged (see second video). this implies stronger longitudinal magnetic fields.

There is a event that repeats, has been observed, in every single climb out of solar minimum I might post later as soon as I figure out how to present it. I was educated by a solar physicist PHD on this event and what it means.

Please enjoy my video
Created in JHelioviewer

2nd video showing trans-equatorial longitudinal bright regions. They brighten simultaneously.

 

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All active regions on the sun are dwindling down. SFU started at 77 then spiked to 94 then is falling off. Stereo-Ahead shows a blank sun. No bright regions popping up on it's limb. Solar minimum looks protracted.

I HOPE TO BE PRECEDENTLY WRONG ON THIS!

 

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I was precedently WRONG! We saw solar flux climb to 104 then 110 then down to 106 but it's rebounding! Every 45-60 degrees longitudes there is a active region all the way around the sun's static south hemisphere. Magnetically we are in south polarity field by Sunday we'll be in north polarity field. the heliospheric sheet is expanding! How long has it been since we could say that? Solar minimum is OVER and it'll be back between 2029-2031. North will catch up by the 3rd quarter of 2021. Cosmic rays will decrease.

Happy Holidays gift from Sol SC25
SN:43
SFI:106
Alpha:8

 

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We had a M4.4 flare off the south east limb which caused 35+ db at 3MHZ D-Layer absorption over the south mid-Atlantic, east South America and south Africa. Basically anywhere the sun was shining at the highest solar angle. Which leads to this first solar slinky with a brand new AR that formed hours after the M4.4 flare. (Ignore the red box. That's not it. I was noticing that AR2789 had begun to show signs of rotation right next to AR2786 which is a cause for concern)