What Skywarn is and isn't -
At the national level, Skywarn is a "co-op" between the ARRL (national organization for amateur radio), NWS, and other agencies. ARRL "agrees" to provide volunteer trained spotters to provide direct reports to the local NWS offices, and NCOs at the ham desks in each NWS office (that has one). NWS agrees to provide the training for those spotters. There is more to it, but if you meet the qualifications, you get to use the official Skywarn logo.
At the local level, OkArkSkywarn is the "local chapter" of the Skywarn "club". They have regular meetings, where the spotters, NCOs, and NWS meteorologists get together and figure out ways to better do their jobs - that would be the NWS's job - of keeping the public forewarned of impending or occurring dangerous weather. They do fundraisers to pay for their webpage (that is designed to keep the spotters informed of training activities and such, and to provide a way for us to keep in touch with each other). They also support the local clubs - since they use the club's repeaters during weather events.
NONE of this has any direct bearing on an ACTUAL ONGOING weather event, though. THAT call is the NWS meteorologist, IF he sees an unstable situation (supercells could form) or ongoing situation (supercells are moving into the area) to CALL the on-call NCO. When they predict severe weather, the NCOs provide their availability, the coordinator puts together a schedule, and the meteorologist calls whoever's name is on the list for that time slot. At that time, the NCO must respond TO the NWS office and then start a weather net. At the same time, spotters are normally monitoring the weather (if an event is predicted) and will also head out to spot.
WHAT HAPPENED SAT. Night:
the squall line was "linear" in nature. It did NOT have a history of mesos - it was a straight line wind/heavy rain/lightning event. It was also moving into an area of MORE stable air, so what potential it did have was predicted to decrease, especially with the loss of daytime heating after sunset and the fact that it was moving into an area with a stronger cap. The decrease in potential favorable conditions for meso formation led the NWS to drop their predictions of severe weather. Because they dropped their predictions, the NCOs and spotters "stood down".
Then the storm pulled a fast one on us! I haven't seen the official reports, but IF (not saying there wasn't, just that I haven't seen the reports) a tornado is was small, weak (F1) and localized. Much of the damage was more likely microbursts or downdrafts from collapsing cells.
This cell blew up, went meso, then collapsed all within a few minutes and a few miles, w/o much in the way of indicators that it had the potential to do so - let alone indicators that it WOULD.
IF the NWS had seen it developing sooner, they could have called a net. IF they had called an NCO immediately, we could have gotten a net on the air - provided the NCO they called lived close by. BUT - this one happened so fast, the event was over before they could even issue a warning, let alone get a Skywarn net on the air. If they had called me or Mike when the cell started forming, we would have been "chasing" it across town to get to the NWS (we both live west of where it blew up) - so despite being <15 minutes from the NWS office, the event would have been over before we could get there.
They still COULD have called a warning, that would have clued in the media (who also weren't doing more than putting the radar in the corner of the screen except on commercial breaks) and any spotters who were up/listening or anyone with a weather radio. I don't know why they didn't, but I suspect the reason was that it just didn't look bad, and didn't look like it was going to get worse.
So, NWS got surprised. It happens. That's why we have a multi-billion $ a year federal agency to predict the weather - because it is UNPREDICTABLE. That's also why we (ARRL, Skywarn, NWS, local media, others) tell people to stay alert to changing weather conditions EVEN if no severe weather is predicted.
As far as TAEMA and taking damage reports goes - TAEMA is not manned 24x7 as far as I know, and even when it is manned not everyone there is a ham, so even if they're there and have the radio on, they may not be able to acknowledge a report. In other words, they work just like the NWS when there is no net going - they may notice, they may be actively monitoring, or they may not. If a major event happens, they get "called up". But if they're "surprised" it will take them a few to get on scene, get organized, and get up to speed.
As far as the repeaters go - I can tell you (I know Mike will agree) that ANY local ham repeater will IMMEDIATELY be made available for emergency communications for ANY need. All you have to do is ask. However, if no one asks, know one knows. NWS didn't predict, thus didn't ask. TAEMA wasn't expecting anything, so they weren't activated. So they didn't ask.
If an individual spotter was up "watching the light show" (I was up watching my antennas sway, and wondering if they were going to stay up!) sees something, they will likely note it, and probably attempt to report it. If NWS doesn't respond to the radio, there's always the phone. I'll admit I didn't - I had 40mph straight line winds, no hail, little rain (1/2" total, but not all with the squall line) except for one huge burst that lasted all of 30 seconds. Since that's what was predicted and none of it meets the criteria for a report, once it passed my place I went back to bed.
Sounds like Skywarn might have to watch out for those types of storms as well.
