Weather Forecasting Errors

[iMONITOR]

Is anyone else noticing a sharp increase in weather forecasting errors by your local TV weather teams?

S.E. Michigan, Fox2, 'Captain' Rich Luderman, and Justin Ryan have been doing or terrible job all summer! One evening several weeks ago, Justin Ryan interrupted regular TV programing for the longest time, rambling about the severe weather, that turned out to be nothing. A couple days later some tornado's popped up, and Fox2 never made any mention of them until after the fact. Their rain / no rain forecast have been wrong almost every time. :roll:

Where else can you get a high paying job and be wrong most of the time! Great work if you can get it.

 

[freqs]

LOL I bet you just started a big fight ( not from me) I bet we guess who will have his 2 cents on this

 

[brandon]

You should see the clowns we have on TV forecasting the weather.

 

[MFD4305]

I Know!

Where else can you get a high paying job and be wrong most of the time! Great work if you can get it.

All you have to do is offer "Hope and Change...!"

 

[XTS3000]

Weather forcasting this summer has been very difficult for NOAA. Usually the US and European super computers generally are in agreement with the WX in the USA. This year, these computer models are almost constantly in DISagreement, with even near term forecasts (1-2 day). Usually the computers are some what in agreement with the 1-2 day forecasts.... Not this summer.

Most of the time, the NAM forcast are pretty reliable. The NAM is a short term 1-2 day forcast, which has been terrible this year. Even the longer term ECMWF are usually in agreement with the NAM runs, again NOT this year.

Around my area, the NWS has gone as far to say, "we are not going to use the NAM or ECMWF computer runs, but rather use the visable/IR satellites to generate this forecast, as the NAM this past week can not seem to grasp anything reliable or close to reliable - even for our simple 24hr forecast.......".

Just found out today that the NAM/ECMWF computers do NOT take in consideration the mature crops, and the available moisture generated from these crops. 1 acre of mature corn can transpire 4000 gallons of water into the atmoshere daily. Add up 10,000+ acres of corn/soybean/etc in the midwest, this can add lots of available moisture in the mid levels - none of which is taken into consideration in the NAM and ECMWF computer runs.

I'm not sticking up for the TV weather men/women, as most of these guys just read the forecast generated by NOAA or NWS. Which these computers can't even grasp 12-24 hour, let alone a mid term forecast.

Also, the midwest has been hit hard with many "short wave" impulses ejected from the main surface low, which are difficult to predict - especially the timing and strength.

I'm with the OP, as our WX forecasts this summer are almost useless. NOAA/NWS is doing their best giving the situation they are in with the computers.

 

[cfr301]

Been pretty Rocky here in Ohio as well, except during the LONG hot dry spells which were headed into again this week. They got those pretty near perfect.


I wonder where our resident weather and other topics know-it-all is on this thread..has he been kidnapped?? The silence is deafening

LOL!!

 

[seamusg]

Michigan Weather - "wait 5 minutes and it will change"

 

[DaveNF2G]

The same thing seems to have overtaken the National Hurricane Center. Look at the major misforecasting of TS Colin. When it fell apart, the forecasters were talking about shear and poor conditions and that the storm was essentially gone for good. A couple of days later, there it was again!

 

[rdale]

Most big-city weather operations don't give a hoot about forecasts being right or wrong. They make money if you watch them. End of story.

If you want a "real" forecast, you need to find a meteorologist making forecasts because that's his passion, not just because that's his paycheck.

 

[iMONITOR]

Most big-city weather operations don't give a hoot about forecasts being right or wrong. They make money if you watch them. End of story.

If you want a "real" forecast, you need to find a meteorologist making forecasts because that's his passion, not just because that's his paycheck.

Rich Luderman (FOX2) is a meterologist, and likes to talk about the responsibilities he had as a captain in the military. He said the Generals depended on him for his weather forcast so the knew when they could fly the helicopters in the Middle East. That might expain all the crashes they've had.