Lo band skip is not as predictable as HF is. Different rules, different methods. Ole Sol is partially responsible, as it hasn't been very active lately. But there are other factors too. I'm surprised you didn't hear much during the snowstorms.
A long dipole?? Vertically and horizontally?? What's up with that? I would think a simple vertical dipole, mounted nice and high, would be a good performer. Granted that during skip the polarization of the signal can change, but I would think a primarily vertical antenna would be the way to go. 73 Mike