iDEN wasn't designed to be a public safety solution. First NET is. 50 years? Don't think so. Having just worked SB53, my agency got a cache of 40 First NET Sonim XP8s and used them extensively. They worked flawlessly (as did our AS25 7.16). Saw a ton of Wave radios (not Bose, Motorola!).
My point is First NET is not even to the point of being "mission critical" that LMR systems provide. They know that. In every mission critical article I've ever read also supports this. Until that changes, you're not going to see replacement of LMR systems. There are characteristics of LMR that LTE isn't going to be able to replicate very easily, one being high power simplex.
As far as "trusting a for profit company" it's no different than the big dollar mutli-million contracts agencies have with LMR vendors. The dependency is the same. In Houston, they suffered loss to their sites during Harvey, the impact is the same. Commercial carriers are tooling up to support public safety for the same reasons companies like MSI: there is money in it.
I beg to differ. Many large Cities like Boston, NY, etc already have their own in-house radio dept. Though a lot is sub contracted out like tower/site work, they work for the agency and manage the system and do tons of in-house stuff. They have the city's best interest at heart. They own their equipment. Do you think AT&T is going to be able to provide that? Basically, you rent airtime regardless if you like it or not, with zero direct control of the system.
Until a direct mode is established, LTE immediately falls short, even in a city environment. I've done work in the mid-west during the aftermath of many tornadoes. The only thing left was the mobile radios in the trucks. 100 watt simplex back to the command post saved lives because it was instant and relatively long range right after the touchdown. These are the things that the majority of the country come to rely on and come to expect. Non of which any cellular carrier can provide.
Agree or disagree, I'd be worrying about LMR encryption before and large takeover of LTE as far as scanners are concerned.