Maybe, but no flame suit needed.
But there's some other angles to look at here...
Radio replacement by attrition. There's been a lot of mention of "20 year old radios". That may be the case for recreational boaters, but on the commercial side, the radios get used a LOT more and don't usually last that long. Most large ships would burn though $200 bucks (cost of a VHF fixed radio) in fuel in a few mintues. Replacing a VHF radio isn't going to even be a speed bump.
The guys who run large ships understand the need for good communications and are smart enough to not put life safety on a 20 year old $150 VHF radio.
Other than recreational users in the USA, commercial users are still licensed, so the FCC can easily mandate this. Insurance companies can require it.
Marine VHF isn't that old. Not that long ago (probably well within most of our lives), HF was king, even for recreational boaters for near shore use. 2MHz was pretty popular… Yet, somehow, the world didn't stop turning when users moved away from HF and to VHF.
ITU/IMO is well aware of the proliferation of wide band analog VHF radios and will surely understand that there needs to be a transition period. They managed to pull off GMDSS just fine, and the world didn't stop turning. Inmarsat has worked well, and the world hasn't stopped turning. DCS, anyone? Retirement of the old 121.5 beacons for new 406 beacons?
Comparing any of this to the idiotic way that the FCC handled narrow banding probably isn't a good comparison….
And I really gotta wonder about a boater who relies on a 20 year old VHF marine radio. Anyone who has done anything with boats understands the sheer cost of the endeavor and isn't going to have a problem buying one new VHF radio every 20 years.
I'm sure Baofeng will step up for you guys and offer 10 digital Marine VHF radios for $200 bucks on E-bay/Amazon when the time comes.