Significant TORNADO outbreak is likely!!

[Thunderbolt]

This is not good news!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


[font=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN MO INTO SERN IA AND PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL
IL...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM AR NWD TO SRN IA
AND EWD INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NERN TX TO THE
MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS...

STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET...
CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WILL TRACK
NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TODAY REACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY 12Z MONDAY. 60-120 METER HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED WITH THIS
TROUGH AS IT TRACKS NEWD WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
SSWLY LLJ /50+ KT/ FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER STRENGTHENING /60-80 KT/ OF THIS
LLJ IS EXPECTED SECOND HALF OF FORECAST PERIOD AS IT VEERS TO SWLY
FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/ LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY EXTEND
FROM LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO OK...AND THEN
WNWWD TO A SURFACE LOW OVER ERN CO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NWD
AS A WARM FRONT TODAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
TRANSLATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN KS REACHING FAR NRN
MO BY 00Z...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN PARTS OF
IL/IN/OH. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND SWD ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE ACROSS FAR
ERN PARTS OF KS/OK INTO NERN TX ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCI FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD ZONE OF RICH MOISTURE
RETURN...ALREADY UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NWD
TODAY FROM THE SERN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID MS/OH
RIVER VALLEYS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S SHOULD REACH AS
FAR NORTH AS SERN MO/PARTS OF SRN IL...WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD TO WRN PA.

WHILE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A LEAD SRN PLAINS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z
SUNDAY ACROSS LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY FREE OF
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION. WITH INSOLATION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ON NOSE OF RETURNING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 2000 J/KG IN SURFACE WARM SECTOR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY LIKELY
BEING DISCRETE FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE. STRONG
LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING TORNADOES...SOME
STRONG TO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS CENTRAL/ NRN MO INTO SERN IA AND
WRN/CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

INITIAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE THIS
EVENING SPREADING EWD FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE GREATER THREAT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO IND/WRN KY.

..PETERS/GRAMS.. 03/12/2006
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[Thunderbolt]

[font=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

VALID 120946Z - 121745Z

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MISSOURI

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS INTO THE MID SOUTH
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

A VOLATILE SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSOURI...MID MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST SURFACE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. WE
EXPECT THAT SEVERAL AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH MAY OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI/FAR SOUTHERN IOWA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE FORM OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...MANY OF
WHICH COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG AND LONG-LIVED. OTHER POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ALONG A DRY LINE EXTENDING INTO FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THESE WILL SPREAD A THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING DAMAGING TORNADOES...ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO THE
MID SOUTH/LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..EVANS.. 03/12/2006
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