Tinfoil hat conversation? Carrington Event?

[KE9BXE]

Thank you for your intelligent reply and no that is not what I'm asking. I will repeat it for the fifth time, This Thread is not about EMP caused by a nuclear attack this is about the Carrington event of the 1850s. It was a major solar flare and yes it's common knowledge that it did wipe out Telegraph systems, the only Electronics we had. If we had cars would they run? Would our radios work if there were radios then? In other words to ask my question in a different way, would a solar event like the Carrington event affect our Electronics today as advanced as they are or would we be totally unaffected. Would we be wiped out like telegraph was.

Again this has nothing to do with a nuclear attack or EMP which would appear to be off topic according to the header of the thread. I do understand the question about Faraday cages protecting radios from a solar flare as strong as the Carrington event in the 1850s.

If the Carrington Event happened today over the same geographic area, many millions would die. No vehicle made after about 1976 would operate. Substations and major transformers would take a decade to have fabricated, imported, and installed. Rampant fires would be impossible to extinguish. Looting would be rampant as everyone would be on foot and the ability to bring food into an area quickly enough before starvation occurs would be near impossible, death by dehydration or polluted water would occur in the first month. Attempting to evacuate people via train would take months as there would be dead diesel-electric trains blocking all tracks. Clearing highways of cars to provide inroads for relief vehicles would take many weeks. Many fatalities would occur because the population would be unknowing and unaware of where to go and if/when/where help would be coming.

So to my other answer, the Carrington Event part 2 would be the equal devastation as an EMP based weapon.

The reason radios that are protected from EMP are so important is communication. Most communities are resilient and helpful to one another if they can communicate. The biggest threat would be roving bands of starving city-dwellers heading into rural America since there are better odds of survival where there is food and water. Not everyone in that circumstance would ask for help peacefully. The first 2-4 weeks would be the worst timeframe.

An farraday bag/case of reasonable quality is not cheap, $400-$4000. The contents of that bag would have to be practical and immediately deployable to people that matter. Probably of equal import would be multimeters to start diagnosing and fixing broken stuff.

 

[Blackswan73]

There is a whole series of books about a scenario similar to this. I believe there was eleven or twelve books in the series. The author used a pen name The American or something like that. Stories are set in Florida. Interesting reading. Fiction, yes but the actual premise is quite possible

B.S.

 

[rescuecomm]

Having two way communications for about 1 mile radius around the residence is good enough. I didn't need it during Helene in spite of 7 days of grid outage. Mostly due to the district water supply not being interrupted. My spouse is disabled and can't walk any distance with me. The solar storm in 1989 that affected the Quebec power system didn't damage homeowners electronics.

 

[trentbob]

If the Carrington Event happened today over the same geographic area, many millions would die. No vehicle made after about 1976 would operate. Substations and major transformers would take a decade to have fabricated, imported, and installed. Rampant fires would be impossible to extinguish. Looting would be rampant as everyone would be on foot and the ability to bring food into an area quickly enough before starvation occurs would be near impossible, death by dehydration or polluted water would occur in the first month. Attempting to evacuate people via train would take months as there would be dead diesel-electric trains blocking all tracks. Clearing highways of cars to provide inroads for relief vehicles would take many weeks. Many fatalities would occur because the population would be unknowing and unaware of where to go and if/when/where help would be coming.

So to my other answer, the Carrington Event part 2 would be the equal devastation as an EMP based weapon.

The reason radios that are protected from EMP are so important is communication. Most communities are resilient and helpful to one another if they can communicate. The biggest threat would be roving bands of starving city-dwellers heading into rural America since there are better odds of survival where there is food and water. Not everyone in that circumstance would ask for help peacefully. The first 2-4 weeks would be the worst timeframe.

An farraday bag/case of reasonable quality is not cheap, $400-$4000. The contents of that bag would have to be practical and immediately deployable to people that matter. Probably of equal import would be multimeters to start diagnosing and fixing broken stuff.

Thank you for your intelligent reply, that's what I was thinking, you are definitely thinking along the lines that I am, I'm not sure about a great death toll but I do know that things would not operate, we would be using horses and buggies, hopefully much of America is heavily armed so the looting and crime would be a phenomena for the weak and unarmed anti-gun, pro crime people who would be vulnerable.

So I imagine our modern electronics would not be able to withstand the solar attack and the sophistication of our electronics would be subject to ill effects.

Thank for your thoughts, we really don't know, as has been said but I would tend to think it would be more like as you're describing.

 

[trentbob]

Same answer applies.
Since that happened in the 1850's and the technology to understand it/measure it didn't exist, science would be trying to recreate it based on recorded history, and maybe some biological data left behind.

Recorded history of the event is probably a bit sus as there would be a lack of knowledge on the subject at the time.

So, using what we know now, and using large computers that can run lots of large simulations quickly, they can probably get pretty close to recreating it, then deciding how it would impact current infrastructure.

Since we do not have control over an event like this, the best we could do is guess at what the next one would be like, and design accordingly. I'm positive that the sun could throw out something large enough that anything we tried to do as mortals to protect against it would be laughed off.

In other words, it's going to happen again. "How big" is the question.

We've had smaller events, and there has been impact. Utilities/military/government/industry has learned from those. Some infrastructure gets upgraded. Some infrastructure gets isolated/broken up so an event wouldn't impact everything.

Case in point, look at how the national power grid is designed. It's not one huge interconnected grid. It's broken up into smaller chunks with DC interties between them that can prevent some issues. You may absolutely see large chunk of the country get blacked out, but there are means in place to keep it from spreading.
Ways of shunting that extra impulse energy to ground exist. Same thing is used to protect against lightning strikes.

IT infrastructure uses fiber, as I mentioned above, so an event might impact the copper wire parts of the system, like POTS or cable TV, but the truth is that those copper links are only "last mile". Damn near everything is fiber now. The old AT&T/CLEC switching centers were mostly built to be survivable in the event of a nuclear blast. I know, you are not asking about nuclear, but the same principals apply.
The way the internet works, it doesn't rely on just single routers/single paths, there's lot of interesting topology involved that helps isolate faults (usually). Sure, there would be some impact, but the 'system' has quite a lot of capability to reroute traffic around problems.

So, telephone and internet might absolutely be impacted, but it may be just regional. Some areas might be out for a long time, but it would eventually get restored.

Power would be the big concern. But while the system is fragile, restoring parts of the system would be possible, and might happen fairly fast. I think the issue/concern would be "how fast".
Again, microgrids, local renewable energy, all those things are good. I had a coworker that was one of the first Tesla owners I knew. They had the car, plus a substantial solar array at their home, plus a large battery system. Most of the time she would charge her car off stored solar power at night. During the day, the battery system would recharge, plus have enough excess energy to supply her home. That was a good solution that didn't rely on a gasoline pump working.

As for "internet" and big data, I think the bigger issue is that everyone wants it for free/cheap. Getting cheap/free means you take some risks.

Any good data center would have redundancy. Not only redundant local systems, but geographically redundant systems. We use a lot of Google and Amazon hosting at work, as many do. You can buy different levels of service.
You can get the cheap "It's in that data center over there"
Or you can get the more expensive, "It's in that data center over there, plus one in the midwest, one in Canada, one in the Southeast, one in Japan, etc.

But I'm sure someone will come up with some imaginary event where all that will fail and the only thing that survives is some guy who buried supplies in his backyard. That's usually the way these discussions go.
Personally, I think I'd prefer to check out at that point. I don't necessarily be part of a world that functions that way.

Good answer, now that's the kind of intelligent response I was looking for.

 

[Blackswan73]

Pre computer cars would work fine provided you could get fuel. Vehicles made before 1975 should work ok.

B.S.

 

[trentbob]

Pre computer cars would work fine provided you could get fuel. Vehicles made before 1975 should work ok.

B.S.

 

[Blackswan73]

B.S.

 

[Freemor]

One thing missing from this discussion is the fact that if another Carrington event happened we'd all have a couple to several days notice. The Carrington event was not an EMP it was a massive CME that hit the earth (yes I know the effects are similar). The sun is watched and studies very closely these days there are system in place to warn potentially effected parties (satellite operators, Power generation companies, etc) I'm sure if the sun ejected a Carrington sized CME and it was earth directed We'd all have a couple of days to prepare. I'm not saying it wouldn't suck. I'm just saying everyone would know it was coming before it hit.

 

[G7RUX]

One thing missing from this discussion is the fact that if another Carrington event happened we'd all have a couple to several days notice. The Carrington event was not an EMP it was a massive CME that hit the earth (yes I know the effects are similar). The sun is watched and studies very closely these days there are system in place to warn potentially effected parties (satellite operators, Power generation companies, etc) I'm sure if the sun ejected a Carrington sized CME and it was earth directed We'd all have a couple of days to prepare. I'm not saying it wouldn't suck. I'm just saying everyone would know it was coming before it hit.

Precisely this...

 

[trentbob]

One thing missing from this discussion is the fact that if another Carrington event happened we'd all have a couple to several days notice. The Carrington event was not an EMP it was a massive CME that hit the earth (yes I know the effects are similar). The sun is watched and studies very closely these days there are system in place to warn potentially effected parties (satellite operators, Power generation companies, etc) I'm sure if the sun ejected a Carrington sized CME and it was earth directed We'd all have a couple of days to prepare. I'm not saying it wouldn't suck. I'm just saying everyone would know it was coming before it hit.

Excellent point, good answer, that would be an interesting few days.😉

 

[KE9BXE]

Excellent point, good answer, that would be an interesting few days.😉

The question would be if the government bean counters would "tell us" with advance notice. Meaning, would they suppress the public knowledge of a CME because they believe the hoarding and panic would exacerbate things or not? Honestly, based on their collective thinking in the past few disasters I cannot predict what their logic would be in a time of future crisis.

I have a cursory interest in emergency preparedness so the Carrington Event is an interesting topic. I find that I cannot afford (in time nor interest) long-timeline "prepping". (Months or more contingency plans is best left to the fanatics) Nonetheless, I believe its 1000x more likely that we have an event best described as 2-3 weeks of hell than it is to have a full blown zombie apocalypse scenario. Big complex systems are fragile and we've seen things go quite wrong in the past decade within certain locations for weeks at a time.

This 2-3 weeks of hell scenario is what got me interested in ham and why I got my license. Me and my neighbors are not going to starve in 2-3 weeks time. We also aren't going to freeze. But the weak link I see is communications and urban unrest rolling into the rural land for "easy pickings" whatever that may mean.

In my area we've had cell tower outages for 2-3 days in the past 24 months. We had complete social fabric dissolve only 45 miles from here four years ago that got to within 38 miles of my community. Hence, my interest in spending a few hours and dollars to address the "E" in P.A.C.E. for my little hamlet that needs simplex communication plans.

 

[nd5y]

The question would be if the government bean counters would "tell us" with advance notice. Meaning, would they suppress the public knowledge of a CME because they believe the hoarding and panic would exacerbate things or not?

That would be like trying to hide advanced notice of a hurricane. It's impossible. The US government is not the only thing monitoring the sun and geomagnetic activity.

 

[W2JGA]

I was gonna say, there are a lot of non-govt astronomers watching the sun every day. Can't keep everyone quiet.

 

[rescuecomm]

A good question is do the electrical utilities have any pre-emptive actions in case of a massive CME? Their response to hurricanes is let things happen and put it back together afterwards. Would disconnecting sections of the grid limit damage to transformers?

 

[mmckenna]

A good question is do the electrical utilities have any pre-emptive actions in case of a massive CME? Their response to hurricanes is let things happen and put it back together afterwards. Would disconnecting sections of the grid limit damage to transformers?

Probably not an option. The issue is that long power lines absorb all that energy. Those long lines are hard to avoid.

The DC interties might help sectionalize large sections of the country from others, but that's probably not a good solution when the issue would be so wide spread.

I'd like to understand if buried power lines would be a bit more resistant to this sort of event, but with so little actually buried, it's probably not much of a thing.

Microgrids or home solar systems is probably the answer. But there seems to be a level of political resistance to anything that doesn't support the large oil/gas/coal/nuclear centralized type generating plants.

 

[W2JGA]

And who can predict when its caused by humans vs the sun.

 

[nd5y]

I'd like to understand if buried power lines would be a bit more resistant to this sort of event, but with so little actually buried, it's probably not much of a thing.

I don't think so. At least not all of the effects. One of the things a CME can do is cause the earth's magnetic field to move around. The earth's magnetic field also exists underground.

For those who never studied electronics or don't have at least 1970s grade shcool level knowledge of science, when magnetic field lines cross a conductor at right angles they induce currents in the conductor. That's how generators work.

 

[trentbob]

The question would be if the government bean counters would "tell us" with advance notice. Meaning, would they suppress the public knowledge of a CME because they believe the hoarding and panic would exacerbate things or not? Honestly, based on their collective thinking in the past few disasters I cannot predict what their logic would be in a time of future crisis.

I have a cursory interest in emergency preparedness so the Carrington Event is an interesting topic. I find that I cannot afford (in time nor interest) long-timeline "prepping". (Months or more contingency plans is best left to the fanatics) Nonetheless, I believe its 1000x more likely that we have an event best described as 2-3 weeks of hell than it is to have a full blown zombie apocalypse scenario. Big complex systems are fragile and we've seen things go quite wrong in the past decade within certain locations for weeks at a time.

This 2-3 weeks of hell scenario is what got me interested in ham and why I got my license. Me and my neighbors are not going to starve in 2-3 weeks time. We also aren't going to freeze. But the weak link I see is communications and urban unrest rolling into the rural land for "easy pickings" whatever that may mean.

In my area we've had cell tower outages for 2-3 days in the past 24 months. We had complete social fabric dissolve only 45 miles from here four years ago that got to within 38 miles of my community. Hence, my interest in spending a few hours and dollars to address the "E" in P.A.C.E. for my little hamlet that needs simplex communication plans.

Good point, discounting whatever kind of emergency it is I have always felt that VHF High simplex was the way to go. I'm in Pennsylvania on the New Jersey border and New Jersey has the State Police emergency Network for ever. Simplex VHF Communications, Channel 2 is the national Emergency VHF Channel csq from decades and decades ago. Maybe it'll work maybe it won't.

 

[trentbob]

Probably not an option. The issue is that long power lines absorb all that energy. Those long lines are hard to avoid.

The DC interties might help sectionalize large sections of the country from others, but that's probably not a good solution when the issue would be so wide spread.

I'd like to understand if buried power lines would be a bit more resistant to this sort of event, but with so little actually buried, it's probably not much of a thing.

Microgrids or home solar systems is probably the answer. But there seems to be a level of political resistance to anything that doesn't support the large oil/gas/coal/nuclear centralized type generating plants.

Good point, perhaps in the day, Tesla, had been able to convince the powers to be that his approach to electricity was better than Edison who was extremely corrupt and had tremendous political power. Things would be a lot different today as technology expanded.

Good thoughts about how deep the wires could be buried to make a difference. I think it would make a difference.