Tinfoil hat conversation? Carrington Event?

[mmckenna]

I don't think so. At least not all of the effects. One of the things a CME can do is cause the earth's magnetic field to move around. The earth's magnetic field also exists underground.

For those who never studied electronics or don't have at least 1970s grade shcool level knowledge of science, when magnetic field lines cross a conductor at right angles they induce currents in the conductor. That's how generators work.

Good point.
I know the Bell System buried their transcontinental coax networks really deep to help harden them from nuclear blasts. I seem to remember 6 feet, at minimum. Even the repeaters were underground.

 

[mmckenna]

Good point, perhaps in the day, Tesla, had been able to convince the powers to be that his approach to electricity was better than Edison who was extremely corrupt and had tremendous political power.

Funny how history has reversed this.

 

[trentbob]

Funny how history has reversed this.

The war of the currents.

 

[trentbob]

Funny how history has reversed this.

AC rules.. Tesla never really got the credit for the better system.

 

[G7RUX]

The question would be if the government bean counters would "tell us" with advance notice. Meaning, would they suppress the public knowledge of a CME because they believe the hoarding and panic would exacerbate things or not? Honestly, based on their collective thinking in the past few disasters I cannot predict what their logic would be in a time of future crisis.

I have a cursory interest in emergency preparedness so the Carrington Event is an interesting topic. I find that I cannot afford (in time nor interest) long-timeline "prepping". (Months or more contingency plans is best left to the fanatics) Nonetheless, I believe its 1000x more likely that we have an event best described as 2-3 weeks of hell than it is to have a full blown zombie apocalypse scenario. Big complex systems are fragile and we've seen things go quite wrong in the past decade within certain locations for weeks at a time.

This 2-3 weeks of hell scenario is what got me interested in ham and why I got my license. Me and my neighbors are not going to starve in 2-3 weeks time. We also aren't going to freeze. But the weak link I see is communications and urban unrest rolling into the rural land for "easy pickings" whatever that may mean.

In my area we've had cell tower outages for 2-3 days in the past 24 months. We had complete social fabric dissolve only 45 miles from here four years ago that got to within 38 miles of my community. Hence, my interest in spending a few hours and dollars to address the "E" in P.A.C.E. for my little hamlet that needs simplex communication plans.

There are so many systems which observe the sun's activity that I suspect it would be extremely difficult to hush such a thing up, even in the USA; note that there are other countries which observe such things and likely wouldn't be so keen to sweep it under the carpet. This situation would be blindingly obvious especially to the amateur radio community, many of whom are far more knowledgeable and practised in the area of solar activity and the effects on the Earth.

The discussion in this regard reminds me somewhat of the rather excellent film "Don't Look Up."

 

[trentbob]

I'm assuming that we can be rest assured in July of 2025 at the solar maximum it's going to be a non- event?

Solar 25 has not been a particularly strong event. Is July the only time in 2025 we should be heads up or is there any risk before and after July?

Any particular measures we are taking?

 

[G7RUX]

Large events can, and do, take place at any point during the solar cycle. It's just that they are more likely during times of high activity.

 

[trentbob]

Large events can, and do, take place at any point during the solar cycle. It's just that they are more likely during times of high activity.

Yes there are 15 sunspots predicted at that point.

 

[G7RUX]

Yes there are 15 sunspots predicted at that point.

It is predicted to peak at a *smoothed maximum of 115* around July. However, the cycle so far has trended above predictions so is pretty likely to be above this when it actually arrives.

 

[mc48]

 

[G7RUX]

Earlier predictions suggested that cycle 25 would peak around October of 2024 but current predictions from observations suggest probably more like early-to-mid 2025:

The geomagnetic index looks like it may peak somewhat later, as often occurs, so radio enhancements and disturbances may well continue increasing through next year.

 

[w2xq]

So is this discussion about EMP from a nuclear bomb or is this discussion about the Carrington event of the 1850s.

The reason the only damage was to Telegraph was that was the only electronics they had, if an event with a solar flare was to happen on that level today, would there be a lot more damage to electronics or are today's electronics protected better?

I just wandered in here after a tough year of falls and cuts, hospitals and physical therapy. I can't answer your question but I copied your message into 'Perplexity' and the answer seems reasonable to me. If you don't know 'Perplexity' IMHO it may well be the best AI program I've found. I use the Android version on my phone and tablets.

The little blue numbers referring to footnotes that I have not copied into this answer.

"The Carrington Event of 1859 was indeed a powerful solar storm that primarily affected telegraph systems, as they were the most advanced electrical technology of that era. However, if a similar event were to occur today, the impact on our modern electronics and infrastructure would be far more severe and widespread.

Potential Damage to Modern Electronics​

Today's electronics are significantly more vulnerable to a Carrington-level event for several reasons:

1. Widespread Dependence: Our society relies heavily on electronic systems for communication, transportation, finance, and daily life
   4
   .
2. Satellite Vulnerability: Satellites, crucial for GPS, communications, and weather forecasting, could be damaged or displaced by high-energy particles
   6
   .
3. Power Grid Disruption: Geomagnetically induced currents could overwhelm transformers and relays, potentially causing large-scale blackouts
   4
   .
4. Computer Systems: The high-energy particles from solar flares can cause data errors, crashes, and even hardware damage in sensitive computer chips
   4
   .
5. Global Communications: Internet infrastructure, including undersea cables and data centers, could be disrupted, leading to widespread communication outages
   6
   .

Scale of Potential Impact​

The consequences of a Carrington-level event today would be catastrophic:

• Economic Impact: A 2013 report estimated that the economic fallout in the United States alone could range from $0.6 trillion to $2.6 trillion
  6
  .
• Duration: Unlike the telegraph disruptions in 1859, which lasted a few days, modern infrastructure could take weeks or even months to fully recover
  3
  .
• Geographic Scope: The effects would be global, affecting power grids, communications, and transportation systems worldwide
  1
  .

Protection Measures​

While modern electronics are more vulnerable in many ways, some protective measures have been implemented:

1. Space Weather Monitoring: NASA and NOAA provide space weather forecasts, allowing for some preparatory actions
   8
   .
2. Hardened Infrastructure: Some critical systems, especially in military and aerospace applications, are designed to withstand higher levels of radiation.
3. Grid Protection: Power companies have implemented some measures to protect against geomagnetically induced currents, though the effectiveness against a Carrington-level event is uncertain.

Despite these precautions, most experts agree that our current level of protection is insufficient to fully mitigate the risks posed by an extreme solar storm. The potential for widespread disruption to our technologically dependent society remains a significant concern
3
6
.In conclusion, while the telegraph systems of 1859 were the primary victims of the Carrington Event due to limited electrical infrastructure, a similar event today would likely cause far more extensive damage to our modern, electronics-dependent world. The vulnerability of our current systems, combined with our reliance on them, makes the potential impact of such an event a serious concern for governments and scientists worldwide."

(30)

 

[trentbob]

I just wandered in here after a tough year of falls and cuts, hospitals and physical therapy. I can't answer your question but I copied your message into 'Perplexity' and the answer seems reasonable to me. If you don't know 'Perplexity' IMHO it may well be the best AI program I've found. I use the Android version on my phone and tablets.

The little blue numbers referring to footnotes that I have not copied into this answer.

"The Carrington Event of 1859 was indeed a powerful solar storm that primarily affected telegraph systems, as they were the most advanced electrical technology of that era. However, if a similar event were to occur today, the impact on our modern electronics and infrastructure would be far more severe and widespread.

Potential Damage to Modern Electronics​

Today's electronics are significantly more vulnerable to a Carrington-level event for several reasons:

1. Widespread Dependence: Our society relies heavily on electronic systems for communication, transportation, finance, and daily life
   4
   .
2. Satellite Vulnerability: Satellites, crucial for GPS, communications, and weather forecasting, could be damaged or displaced by high-energy particles
   6
   .
3. Power Grid Disruption: Geomagnetically induced currents could overwhelm transformers and relays, potentially causing large-scale blackouts
   4
   .
4. Computer Systems: The high-energy particles from solar flares can cause data errors, crashes, and even hardware damage in sensitive computer chips
   4
   .
5. Global Communications: Internet infrastructure, including undersea cables and data centers, could be disrupted, leading to widespread communication outages
   6
   .

Scale of Potential Impact​

The consequences of a Carrington-level event today would be catastrophic:

• Economic Impact: A 2013 report estimated that the economic fallout in the United States alone could range from $0.6 trillion to $2.6 trillion
  6
  .
• Duration: Unlike the telegraph disruptions in 1859, which lasted a few days, modern infrastructure could take weeks or even months to fully recover
  3
  .
• Geographic Scope: The effects would be global, affecting power grids, communications, and transportation systems worldwide
  1
  .

Protection Measures​

While modern electronics are more vulnerable in many ways, some protective measures have been implemented:

1. Space Weather Monitoring: NASA and NOAA provide space weather forecasts, allowing for some preparatory actions
   8
   .
2. Hardened Infrastructure: Some critical systems, especially in military and aerospace applications, are designed to withstand higher levels of radiation.
3. Grid Protection: Power companies have implemented some measures to protect against geomagnetically induced currents, though the effectiveness against a Carrington-level event is uncertain.

Despite these precautions, most experts agree that our current level of protection is insufficient to fully mitigate the risks posed by an extreme solar storm. The potential for widespread disruption to our technologically dependent society remains a significant concern
3
6
.In conclusion, while the telegraph systems of 1859 were the primary victims of the Carrington Event due to limited electrical infrastructure, a similar event today would likely cause far more extensive damage to our modern, electronics-dependent world. The vulnerability of our current systems, combined with our reliance on them, makes the potential impact of such an event a serious concern for governments and scientists worldwide."

(30)

Thanks Tom, I will check that site out, sorry to hear it's been a rough year for you. Hasn't been a particularly good one for me either. I hope you're feeling better.. Bob.

 

[AC9KH]

Since we're gearing up for national "burn cities down" month, also known as "presidential inauguration season", the point would be to have radios available to rural farm communities that may need to protect their lives and property in the event of a communication blackout combined with overflow of civil unrest.

It sounds like you are trying to invent a scenario where you might be relevant as an emergency communications coordinator. In the first place, rural farm communities are more resilient and self-sufficient than you think. Invading urbanites, who are out of their element, will be met with deadly force, without exception.

In the second place, there are ham radio groups (usually in the form of "clubs") that like to further the illusion that they are relevant for emergency communications situations. If that's what you're into, perhaps ask around to see if one exists near you and join one of these outfits.

 

[KE9BXE]

It sounds like you are trying to invent a scenario where you might be relevant as an emergency communications coordinator. In the first place, rural farm communities are more resilient and self-sufficient than you think. Invading urbanites, who are out of their element, will be met with deadly force, without exception.

In the second place, there are ham radio groups (usually in the form of "clubs") that like to further the illusion that they are relevant for emergency communications situations. If that's what you're into, perhaps ask around to see if one exists near you and join one of these outfits.

There are plenty of those emergency ham groups in the region, I'm not particularly interested in working with EMS but happy that someone else enjoys doing that, volunteer fire, etc.

My interest was purely keeping my elderly farm neighbors in communication. I live in an area where the average age is probably 70. They are very resilient people and have been for 200 years on the same land. My particular interest was local emergency communications when primary and auxiliary modes go down, which they do occasionally. Usually no big inconvenience occurs, but if its combined with the every four years civil unrest at the same time, that would be bad.

 

[nd5y]

Watch out for tractors.

Farmers Say Intelligent Tractors "Acted Like They Were Demon Possessed" After Signal Out of Space

Solar particles have wreaked havoc with satellites in our planet's orbit, messing with tractors and other farming equipment that rely on GPS.

futurism.com

 

[AC9KH]

My interest was purely keeping my elderly farm neighbors in communication. I live in an area where the average age is probably 70. They are very resilient people and have been for 200 years on the same land. My particular interest was local emergency communications when primary and auxiliary modes go down, which they do occasionally. Usually no big inconvenience occurs, but if its combined with the every four years civil unrest at the same time, that would be bad.

I've lived in that rural farm community all my life. Reality is that farmers of any size at all got way better radio equipment than what ham operators got. And it's usually professionally installed and maintained. Our low band repeater antenna is on top of our 120ft grain leg and it covers 5 counties.

All the loggers and forestry guys around here run the same radio system.

Add to that, our standby generator is a Cat 3412, which is a mechanical injection engine that doesn't rely on any electronics whatsoever to run. And we typically got a 2 month fuel supply on hand for it. We run the generator regularly for peak load and backfeed the grid with it because the utility's rural lines can't supply the power to run the grain system at full capacity during harvest. But we still have 30,000 gallons of diesel fuel on hand thru the winter.

For any type of EMP the wiring on these standby systems is not long enough to develop any sort of significant electrical surge. And these generators that farmers, sheriff's depts, hospitals etc have are isolated from the utility grid in normal standby mode by an ATS that will withstand a direct lightning strike.

The local ham radio club has a repeater but it's silent 99.99% of the time, except for when it's computer controller ID's itself, and it don't even come close to the equipment we got.

IMO, you're barking up the wrong tree with that one.

 

[W2JGA]

I have my emergency supply EMP protected.

 

[krokus]

People seem to forget that older cars, along with large generators and trucks, still use electrical systems to start the engine, and keep it running. Those systems are likely to be damaged in the mentioned scenarios.

As for the questions about how badly our modern electronic items would be affected; there are a lot of variables. Start with if they are inside a structure or not, and how much deflection does that structure offer? Are the items connected to any external conductors? The difference in various technologies in the items makes some more susceptible to damage. There is no reasonable way to guess.

I was a military EMC tech, and have worked inside military comms sites. We maintained the NEMP hardened cabinets. Even then, the level of concern about the equipment had waned, so that protective equipment was allowed to be removed as it degraded. Hopefully some of that equipment has been replaced/upgraded.

 

[KB2GOM]

I found One Second After by William Forstchen to be thought-provoking . . . it might be worth your time.

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