Widespread Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Likely!

[Thunderbolt]

[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]850
ACUS02 KWNS 281740
SWODY2
SPC AC 281739

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CST WED FEB 28 2007

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS
LA...AR...MO...IL...SWRN INDIANA...WRN KY...WRN/MID
TN...MS...AL...GA...SC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM MID MS VALLEY TO
CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SRN ATLANTIC COAST...

OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS -- INCLUDING CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG-VIOLENT TORNADOES -- WILL AFFECT PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN
CONUS. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE MODE
REMAIN ATTM...PRECLUDING HIGH PROBABILITIES THIS SOON. HOWEVER...AN
UPGRADE OF SOME PORTION OF CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA IS POSSIBLE IN
FUTURE OUTLOOKS VALID FOR THIS PERIOD.

..SYNOPSIS

IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH EWD ADVANCEMENT OF TROUGHING NOW AMPLIFYING
FROM NRN ROCKIES SWD ACROSS WRN GREAT BASIN AND SRN CA. PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN
NV...SERN CA AND EXTREME WRN AZ -- IS FCST TO EVOLVE INTO CLOSED
MIDLEVEL LOW EARLY IN PERIOD INVOF NERN KS/NWRN MO...THEN MOVE NEWD
OVER WI AS OCCLUDING DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE BY 2/12Z. ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS MO/IA EARLY IN
PERIOD...BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED WITH UPPER LOW BY END OF
PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CATCH FOREGOING DRYLINE EARLY IN
PERIOD...THEN COMBINED BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP EWD OVER OH/TN VALLEY
REGIONS AND GULF COAST STATES.

SFC/925/850 MB ANALYSES AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATES ROBUST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL GULF SWD...BOUNDED ON N SIDE BY BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY FROM S FL WNWWD TO ABOUT 120 NM S OF
CENTRAL/WRN COAST OF LA. ASSOCIATED MARINE/WARM FRONT IS FCST TO
MOVE INLAND LATE DAY-1 PERIOD THEM BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS
INTENSE LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION REGIME SHIFTS NWD THROUGH
THIS AIR MASS...PARTLY SAMPLED BY 28/12Z RAOBS FROM MONTERREY
MEX...BRO...CRP...MERIDA MEX...AND EYW...APPEARS CHARACTERIZED BY
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WWD AND SWD AND DEEPEST
INVOF MARINE FRONT.

..AR/MO/IL...LOWER OH VALLEY REGION

PRIOR-OVERNIGHT SVR POTENTIAL DESCRIBED IN DAY-1 OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH EARLY DAY-2 PERIOD...WITH DAMAGING WIND
AND TORNADOES BEING MAIN CONCERNS. ONE OR MORE LINES OF SVR TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP NEWD ACROSS OZARKS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
MO/AR...THEN INTO WRN/SRN IL THROUGH MIDDAY. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONGLY FAVORABLE FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELLS.
BUOYANCY WILL BE MRGL...WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY UNDER 500
J/KG...HOWEVER MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED INFLOW IS
POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS PORTIONS IL/INDIANA. FAST STORM MOTIONS
EXCEEDING 45 KT ARE LIKELY...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THREAT OF
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES FOR ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

..MID SOUTH...MS/AL

MAXIMIZED SFC HEATING WILL COINCIDE WITH OPTIMAL VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAXIMIZE RISK FOR SVR
HAIL...WIND...AND IN PARTICULAR...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY REMAIN AOB 7 DEG C/KM...SFC DEW POINTS
SHOULD INCREASE INTO 60S F ALONG AND S OF MARINE FRONT. THIS WILL
SUPPORT POCKETS OF MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG...WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER OCCUR BEHIND EARLY-PERIOD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WAA
REGIME. THIS WILL BE SUITABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS -- 0-1 KM SRH AOA 300 J/KG -- AND 0-6 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING
60 KT. A FEW LONG-LIVED AND LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES AND RAPID NEWD
SPREAD OF FAVORABLE INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE.

..CAROLINAS/GA...SRN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN

FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT/EXTEND
EWD FROM MS/AL INTO THIS REGION DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERY IS FCST DURING DAY AND
THROUGHOUT EVENING...FROM SW-NE...LEADING TO SFC DEW POINTS UPPER
50S TO MID 60S AS FAR NE AS ERN NC. SWLY LLJ OFF GULF IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO 55-70 KT RANGE BY 2/06Z AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MOIST
ADVECTION WILL OFFSET DIABATIC NOCTURNAL COOLING...RENDERING INFLOW
LAYER SFC BASED OR VERY NEARLY SO. AS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE SPREADS UNDERNEATH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELDS...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
BOWS...WITH ATTENDANT RISKS FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND.

..FL PENINSULA...AFTERNOON

TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS FL PENINSULA -- PRIMARILY DURING
AFTERNOON INVOF SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES...WHEN DIURNAL HEATING
MINIMIZES CINH. SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST MID-UPPER WINDS SHOULD
EXTEND OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN FL...WITH SLY WINDS AT SFC
ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS. 0-6 KM SHEAR AOA 50 KT MAY EXTEND AS FAR S AS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AREA BY 1/21Z. INSOLATION AND SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S SHOULD OFFSET MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO LEAD TO MLCAPES
500-1000 J/KG.

..EDWARDS.. 02/28/2007

73's

Ron
[/FONT]

 

[mess_85_1]

this has me excited, especially since it is early in the year for this...also, according to the local wx (zip 61401) there is supposed to be a day next week where temps go from 38 to 55 in a day...could also see some activity on that day.

 

[mancow]

They were wrong! That 5% line should have been 100%.

We had 3 tornadoes merge into one south of us (just south of KC) and they just reported another funnel is forming.

Crazy...

 

[Thunderbolt]

Upgraded to High Risk!!

[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]540
ACUS01 KWNS 010615
SWODY1
SPC AC 010613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN OUTBREAK OF
TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG OR VIOLENT....

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK
AREA...ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES....

LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BECOME DOMINATED BY A DEEP CYCLONE NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSE MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOSING
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER JET CORE IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GULF STATES AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SURFACE CYCLONE
GRADUALLY OCCLUDING AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LIKELY REACHING ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. AND...MODELS SUGGEST SECONDARY SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

ALTHOUGH GULF RETURN FLOW MAY NOT BECOME OF SUFFICIENT QUALITY TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STATES...IT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK...GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. STRONG WIND FIELDS/SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS A BROAD AREA...INCLUDING A RISK OF STRONG
TORNADOES AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

..PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY

WHILE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER
MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY
FOR MORE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MAY COMMENCE AS EARLY AS THE 15-18Z TIME
FRAME ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI...BEFORE
SPREADING ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS.
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE MID 60S
CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...SUPERCELLS
ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BY ACCOMPANIED BY A RELATIVELY HIGH
RISK OF TORNADOES. LARGE...CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A
STRONG UPPER JET WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW LONG-LIVED/LONG TRACK
SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG OR VIOLENT TORNADOES.

..MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC COAST

EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG/
AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING. FORCING WILL
COMPENSATE FOR ANTICIPATED WEAK INSTABILITY...AND DAMAGING WINDS
COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AS ACTIVITY SURGES EASTWARD. STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...
PARTICULARLY EARLY TODAY FROM PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO
INDIANA. COOLER/DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SEEMS LESS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...BUT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS... AND
POSSIBLY NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z FRIDAY.

..SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS

BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS BETTER THAN FARTHER NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
AND...THIS SEEMS TO SUPPORT A MORE CERTAIN SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WITH A 60 TO 80 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
PROGGED TO EVOLVE TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS... DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR LIKELY TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE LINE/LINES. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL STILL BE EXTREME
AND FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

..CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA

LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TO MODERATE IN
STRENGTH...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. WEAK CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITH
INSOLATION.

..KERR.. 03/01/2007

[/FONT]

 

[daleduke17]

this has me excited, especially since it is early in the year for this...also, according to the local wx (zip 61401) there is supposed to be a day next week where temps go from 38 to 55 in a day...could also see some activity on that day.

Watching WEEK-25, that was, I think, Thursday 03/01.

First you guys get iced over, now you might get blown away. Thanks to the USPS.com website I found what the city was you checked. Greetings from the other side of the Illinois River.