I really really really LOOOOOOOVE winter weather!!!
.....................................................................................is it over yet? Did I sleep through it?
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 PM CST SAT DEC 08 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN/CENTRAL OK.
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 090457Z - 090930Z
INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FCST DURING NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...MOVING NNEWD OVER COLD BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL SUPPORT
FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIP. PHASE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN OVER SWRN AND W-CENTRAL OK -- GENERALLY NEAR AND S OF I-40 --
TO MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN N OF I-40...TO SLEET CLOSE TO KS
BORDER. PRECIP RATES WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE BECAUSE OF ITS
CONVECTIVE ORIGINS...BUT CORES MAY PRODUCE LIQUID OR LIQUID
EQUIVALENT RATES OF .10-.25 INCH/HOUR AS THEY PASS OVER SOME
LOCALES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED...BENEATH WHICH RATES BRIEFLY MAY EXCEED .25 INCH/HR.
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY THROUGH 415Z INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALREADY DEVELOPING WITHIN AREA BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY
CHK...FSI...HBR...CSM...40 SW END...MOVING NNEWD 30-35 KT. PRIND
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AND EXPAND INTO PORTIONS
CENTRAL/NRN OK THROUGH AT LEAST 8Z. 00Z OUN RAOB INDICATED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ABOVE SHALLOW LATER OF POSTFRONTAL STATIC
STABILITY. SINCE THEN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH
COOLING OF ELEVATED STABLE LAYER HAS REDUCED MUCINH
CONSIDERABLY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ABOVE
FRONTAL SURFACE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE AND SHIFT NEWD OVER
WRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD/30-35 KT LLJ. NET RESULT WILL BE ELEVATED
MUCAPES 400-700 J/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS...WITH PARCELS ISENTROPICALLY RAISED TO LFC.
MEANWHILE...SFC CAA SHOULD SHUNT FREEZING LINE SEWD ACROSS
REGION...INCREASING THREAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TO INCLUDE AREAS
ALONG AND SE OF I-44 OVER SWRN AND CENTRAL OK...AS FAR NE AS TUL
AREA.
.EDWARDS.. 12/09/2007
.....................................................................................is it over yet? Did I sleep through it?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 PM CST SAT DEC 08 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN/CENTRAL OK.
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 090457Z - 090930Z
INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FCST DURING NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...MOVING NNEWD OVER COLD BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL SUPPORT
FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIP. PHASE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN OVER SWRN AND W-CENTRAL OK -- GENERALLY NEAR AND S OF I-40 --
TO MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN N OF I-40...TO SLEET CLOSE TO KS
BORDER. PRECIP RATES WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE BECAUSE OF ITS
CONVECTIVE ORIGINS...BUT CORES MAY PRODUCE LIQUID OR LIQUID
EQUIVALENT RATES OF .10-.25 INCH/HOUR AS THEY PASS OVER SOME
LOCALES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED...BENEATH WHICH RATES BRIEFLY MAY EXCEED .25 INCH/HR.
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY THROUGH 415Z INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALREADY DEVELOPING WITHIN AREA BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY
CHK...FSI...HBR...CSM...40 SW END...MOVING NNEWD 30-35 KT. PRIND
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AND EXPAND INTO PORTIONS
CENTRAL/NRN OK THROUGH AT LEAST 8Z. 00Z OUN RAOB INDICATED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ABOVE SHALLOW LATER OF POSTFRONTAL STATIC
STABILITY. SINCE THEN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH
COOLING OF ELEVATED STABLE LAYER HAS REDUCED MUCINH
CONSIDERABLY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ABOVE
FRONTAL SURFACE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE AND SHIFT NEWD OVER
WRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD/30-35 KT LLJ. NET RESULT WILL BE ELEVATED
MUCAPES 400-700 J/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS...WITH PARCELS ISENTROPICALLY RAISED TO LFC.
MEANWHILE...SFC CAA SHOULD SHUNT FREEZING LINE SEWD ACROSS
REGION...INCREASING THREAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TO INCLUDE AREAS
ALONG AND SE OF I-44 OVER SWRN AND CENTRAL OK...AS FAR NE AS TUL
AREA.
.EDWARDS.. 12/09/2007