Potential Ice Storm!
- Thread starter peterjmag
- Start date
- Status
mfolta1
Member
000
Fxus64 Ktsa 240952
Afdtsa
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa Ok
352 Am Cst Sat Jan 24 2009
.discussion...
Ice Storm Potential In The Monday Through Wednesday Timeframe
Remains The Main Concern This Morning. The Ecmwf Paints A Very
Ominous Picture For Northeast Oklahoma And The Northwest Corner Of
Arkansas With 3-day Liquid Equivalent Precipitation Amounts Of 1
To 2 Inches With Surface Temperatures Below 30 During Much Of
The Event. Even Higher Qpf Totals Are Shown Just Southeast Of This
Area Where Readings Straddle Or Are Just Above The Freezing Mark.
We Will Not Quite Go All The Way With The Ecmwf At This Point In
Time But Will Definitely Lean In Its Direction With A Very Hard To
Dislodge Cold Airmass Remaining Firmly In Place For Much Of The
Upcoming Week. The Gfs Erodes The Cold Airmass Wednesday Which
Looks 2-3 Days Too Soon...especially Given Pre-existing Ice Cover.
In The Short Term...it Does Look Like We Will See At Least Partial
Sunshine The Next Couple Days. Today Will Be Chilly But The Winds
Will Be Diminishing With Time. A Brief Warmup Will Occur Sunday
Before A Reinforcing Shot Of Cold Air Arrives Monday And Monday
Night About The Time The Initial Wave Of Precipitation Is Getting
Cranked Up. Some Drizzle Or Freezing Drizzle Will Be Possible As
Early As Late Sunday Night But The Coverage And Intensity Of
Precipitation Will Increase Later Monday And Monday Night.
Temperature Profiles Support Sleet Or A Sleet/freezing Rain Mix
Northwest Of Interstate 44 And Mainly Freezing Rain And Eventually
Rain As You Go Southeast From There. There May Be A Brief Lull In
The Activity Late Tuesday And Tuesday Evening Before Another Round
Of More Significant Precipitation Commences Later Tuesday Night
And Wednesday. Will Hang Onto Low Pops Into Thursday Given Various
Model Discrepancies...but The Main Event Looks To Be Over By The
End Of The Day Wednesday.
The Freezing Line Looks Like A Tough Call Right Now And May Waffle
A Bit From Time To Time But Will Likely Remain Fairly Close To Or
Just North Of A Mcalester To Fayetteville Line. Winter Storm
Watches Will Likely Be Issued For Parts Of The Area Later Today Or
Early Sunday.
A Warmup Finally Looks To Occur By The End Of The Week Into Next
Weekend When The Meltdown Will Finally Be On.
Did Not Stray Far From Guidance Temperatures The Next Couple Days.
Trended Temperatures Towards The Ecmwf In The Extended But Did Not
Go All The Way.
&&
Fxus64 Ktsa 240952
Afdtsa
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa Ok
352 Am Cst Sat Jan 24 2009
.discussion...
Ice Storm Potential In The Monday Through Wednesday Timeframe
Remains The Main Concern This Morning. The Ecmwf Paints A Very
Ominous Picture For Northeast Oklahoma And The Northwest Corner Of
Arkansas With 3-day Liquid Equivalent Precipitation Amounts Of 1
To 2 Inches With Surface Temperatures Below 30 During Much Of
The Event. Even Higher Qpf Totals Are Shown Just Southeast Of This
Area Where Readings Straddle Or Are Just Above The Freezing Mark.
We Will Not Quite Go All The Way With The Ecmwf At This Point In
Time But Will Definitely Lean In Its Direction With A Very Hard To
Dislodge Cold Airmass Remaining Firmly In Place For Much Of The
Upcoming Week. The Gfs Erodes The Cold Airmass Wednesday Which
Looks 2-3 Days Too Soon...especially Given Pre-existing Ice Cover.
In The Short Term...it Does Look Like We Will See At Least Partial
Sunshine The Next Couple Days. Today Will Be Chilly But The Winds
Will Be Diminishing With Time. A Brief Warmup Will Occur Sunday
Before A Reinforcing Shot Of Cold Air Arrives Monday And Monday
Night About The Time The Initial Wave Of Precipitation Is Getting
Cranked Up. Some Drizzle Or Freezing Drizzle Will Be Possible As
Early As Late Sunday Night But The Coverage And Intensity Of
Precipitation Will Increase Later Monday And Monday Night.
Temperature Profiles Support Sleet Or A Sleet/freezing Rain Mix
Northwest Of Interstate 44 And Mainly Freezing Rain And Eventually
Rain As You Go Southeast From There. There May Be A Brief Lull In
The Activity Late Tuesday And Tuesday Evening Before Another Round
Of More Significant Precipitation Commences Later Tuesday Night
And Wednesday. Will Hang Onto Low Pops Into Thursday Given Various
Model Discrepancies...but The Main Event Looks To Be Over By The
End Of The Day Wednesday.
The Freezing Line Looks Like A Tough Call Right Now And May Waffle
A Bit From Time To Time But Will Likely Remain Fairly Close To Or
Just North Of A Mcalester To Fayetteville Line. Winter Storm
Watches Will Likely Be Issued For Parts Of The Area Later Today Or
Early Sunday.
A Warmup Finally Looks To Occur By The End Of The Week Into Next
Weekend When The Meltdown Will Finally Be On.
Did Not Stray Far From Guidance Temperatures The Next Couple Days.
Trended Temperatures Towards The Ecmwf In The Extended But Did Not
Go All The Way.
&&
FireMedic712
Member
- Joined
- Dec 29, 2004
- Messages
- 155
Got my cable built to backfeed my house with my generator lol! Hopefully is fizzles out, 07 was miserable....made for alot of good scanning though
Secret_Squirrel
Nut Protector Extraordinaire
My local volunteer fire department says "When in trouble, when in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout!"
peterjmag
Member
Got my cable built to backfeed my house with my generator lol! Hopefully is fizzles out, 07 was miserable....made for alot of good scanning though
Transfer switch ready as well?
FireMedic712
Member
- Joined
- Dec 29, 2004
- Messages
- 155
of course. I wouldnt want those lineman getting zapped.
peterjmag
Member
peterjmag
Member
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman Ok
1220 Pm Cst Sat Jan 24 2009
...ice Is Likely And May Be Significant Early This Week...
Arctic Air Had Once Again Settled Into The Southern Plains This
Weekend. The Cold Weather Will Remain In Place For Several Days.
Meanwhile...an Upper Level Trough Will Approach Very Slowly From
The West...and By Monday Morning...this Will Draw Up Increasing
Gulf Moisture To Produce Drizzle And Light Rain Over Western North
Texas And Oklahoma. Wherever Surface Temperatures Are Below
Freezing...ice Will Accumulate On Exposed Surfaces. Initially...
The Precipitation Will Be Very Light During The Day On Monday.
There Is...however...an Increasing Chance For Widespread Light To
Moderate Rain And Freezing Rain From Monday Night Through Early
Wednesday. Accumulations Of Ice Are More Likely To The North Of A
Line From Vernon Texas To Duncan And Seminole Oklahoma...but It Is
Also Possible That Accumulating Ice Will Extend Farther Into
Western North Texas And Southeast Oklahoma.
At Minimum...travel Impacts Are Expected...with Ice Accumulation Up
To One Quarter Of An Inch. There Is Potential...however...for
Greater Ice Accumulations...that Would Result In Damage To
Trees...power Lines...and Other Structures. The Greatest Chance For
Significant Icing Is Forecast From Southwest Oklahoma Near Lawton...
Up To The Central And Eastern Parts Of Oklahoma City...with
Impacts Extending At Least 30 To 40 Miles North And South. There
Is Some Uncertainty...however...regarding Surface Temperatures And
The Intensity Of This Developing Storm. The Zone That Is Most
Likely To See Ice Accumulation May Be Adjusted To The North Or
South As The Event Approaches. All Interests In Oklahoma And
Western North Texas Are Encouraged To Keep Up To Date On The
Latest Forecasts...and Watches Or Advisories.
National Weather Service Norman Ok
1220 Pm Cst Sat Jan 24 2009
...ice Is Likely And May Be Significant Early This Week...
Arctic Air Had Once Again Settled Into The Southern Plains This
Weekend. The Cold Weather Will Remain In Place For Several Days.
Meanwhile...an Upper Level Trough Will Approach Very Slowly From
The West...and By Monday Morning...this Will Draw Up Increasing
Gulf Moisture To Produce Drizzle And Light Rain Over Western North
Texas And Oklahoma. Wherever Surface Temperatures Are Below
Freezing...ice Will Accumulate On Exposed Surfaces. Initially...
The Precipitation Will Be Very Light During The Day On Monday.
There Is...however...an Increasing Chance For Widespread Light To
Moderate Rain And Freezing Rain From Monday Night Through Early
Wednesday. Accumulations Of Ice Are More Likely To The North Of A
Line From Vernon Texas To Duncan And Seminole Oklahoma...but It Is
Also Possible That Accumulating Ice Will Extend Farther Into
Western North Texas And Southeast Oklahoma.
At Minimum...travel Impacts Are Expected...with Ice Accumulation Up
To One Quarter Of An Inch. There Is Potential...however...for
Greater Ice Accumulations...that Would Result In Damage To
Trees...power Lines...and Other Structures. The Greatest Chance For
Significant Icing Is Forecast From Southwest Oklahoma Near Lawton...
Up To The Central And Eastern Parts Of Oklahoma City...with
Impacts Extending At Least 30 To 40 Miles North And South. There
Is Some Uncertainty...however...regarding Surface Temperatures And
The Intensity Of This Developing Storm. The Zone That Is Most
Likely To See Ice Accumulation May Be Adjusted To The North Or
South As The Event Approaches. All Interests In Oklahoma And
Western North Texas Are Encouraged To Keep Up To Date On The
Latest Forecasts...and Watches Or Advisories.
n5usr
Member
Oh joy. Just what I wanted to see!
Ah well, I too have things FAR better prepared than I did last year. At least I won't be sitting in the cold and dark next time the power goes! I have a big battery with solar panels on the roof to keep some LED lights and the radios going, and a generator to keep the fridge and furnace going.
OG&E has also been putting a lot of effort into clearing trees from the lines recently too, at least in my area. Perhaps there won't be such widespread damage if another ice storm does arrive. (As I recall, they used to always use Asplundh, but this year it was a series of never-heard-of-'em trimmers that I saw.)
I hate the cold anymore, just can't handle it. I'm looking forward to spring as well! (These "teaser" 70 degree days followed by sub-freezing weekends are really ticking me off, too! )
Ah well, I too have things FAR better prepared than I did last year. At least I won't be sitting in the cold and dark next time the power goes! I have a big battery with solar panels on the roof to keep some LED lights and the radios going, and a generator to keep the fridge and furnace going.
OG&E has also been putting a lot of effort into clearing trees from the lines recently too, at least in my area. Perhaps there won't be such widespread damage if another ice storm does arrive. (As I recall, they used to always use Asplundh, but this year it was a series of never-heard-of-'em trimmers that I saw.)
I hate the cold anymore, just can't handle it. I'm looking forward to spring as well! (These "teaser" 70 degree days followed by sub-freezing weekends are really ticking me off, too!
)
peterjmag
Member
Yeah I know what you mean. I went through the Ice storm from hell in Tulsa in 07. I think we all learned alot from that storm and are more prepared. As far as comms go I have my Icoms which batteries are interchangable and I have serveral batteries charged and ready to go. The good thing thing here in Stillwater is everything is conventional and nothing that my Icoms won't pick up already. So public safety and ham freqs in them and I'm ready to go! Bring in on mother nature!
peterjmag
Member
For that, I sincerely thank you.
peterjmag
Member
mfolta1
Member
Wow
000
Fxus64 Ktsa 250936
Afdtsa
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa Ok
336 Am Cst Sun Jan 25 2009
.discussion...
Impending Ice Storm Continues To Be The Dominant Forecast Concern
Today. Overall There Has Not Been A Lot Of Change In The Forecast
Reasoning. The Models Diverge On How Quickly To Dry Things Out
From The North With The Operational Gfs And Nam/wrf Quicker With
The Drying Than Most Of The Other Medium Range Models And The
Majority Of The Gfs Ensemble Members. Thus We Have Made Only Minor
Changes To The Pops In The Tuesday Night And Wednesday Timeframe.
We Have Added A Few Counties To The Winter Storm Watch Based On
Forecast Temperatures And Ice Accumulation Derived From The
Preferred Hpc Qpf. The Watch May Eventually Need To Be Extended To
The Rest Of The Forecast Area But Because The Main Threat In That
Area Will Be Late Tuesday Into Wednesday...have Held Off For Now.
As Far As Precipitation Type Goes...a Freezing Rain/sleet Mixture
Will Occur Across Much Of Northeast Oklahoma And The Northwest
Corner Of Arkansas With The Dominant Type Trending Towards Sleet
The Closer To The Kansas Border You Go. Mainly Freezing Rain Will
Occur From Roughly Mcalester Through Sallisaw Into Northern
Franklin County Arkansas. Rain Will Be The Predominant Type
Further South Until Late Tuesday Or Tuesday Night When Sub-
Freezing Temperatures Will Penetrate Into That Area.
The Potential Remains For A Devastating Ice Storm Somewhere In Our
Forecast Area. Right Now...the Greatest Chance Of This Appears To
Be From The Northwest Corner Of Arkansas Into Parts Of East
Central Oklahoma Where Ice Accumulations Are Most Likely To Exceed
One Inch.
Once This System Clears Out Wednesday Night...more Trnaquil
Weather Will Return With A Warming Trend Towards Above Normal
Temperatures By Next Weekend Once We Melt Off The Ice.
Generally Went With A Blend Of The Gfs And Nam Mos Temperatures
Today With A Gfs Mos/ecmwf Blend Preferred Beyond Today.
&&
000
Fxus64 Ktsa 250936
Afdtsa
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa Ok
336 Am Cst Sun Jan 25 2009
.discussion...
Impending Ice Storm Continues To Be The Dominant Forecast Concern
Today. Overall There Has Not Been A Lot Of Change In The Forecast
Reasoning. The Models Diverge On How Quickly To Dry Things Out
From The North With The Operational Gfs And Nam/wrf Quicker With
The Drying Than Most Of The Other Medium Range Models And The
Majority Of The Gfs Ensemble Members. Thus We Have Made Only Minor
Changes To The Pops In The Tuesday Night And Wednesday Timeframe.
We Have Added A Few Counties To The Winter Storm Watch Based On
Forecast Temperatures And Ice Accumulation Derived From The
Preferred Hpc Qpf. The Watch May Eventually Need To Be Extended To
The Rest Of The Forecast Area But Because The Main Threat In That
Area Will Be Late Tuesday Into Wednesday...have Held Off For Now.
As Far As Precipitation Type Goes...a Freezing Rain/sleet Mixture
Will Occur Across Much Of Northeast Oklahoma And The Northwest
Corner Of Arkansas With The Dominant Type Trending Towards Sleet
The Closer To The Kansas Border You Go. Mainly Freezing Rain Will
Occur From Roughly Mcalester Through Sallisaw Into Northern
Franklin County Arkansas. Rain Will Be The Predominant Type
Further South Until Late Tuesday Or Tuesday Night When Sub-
Freezing Temperatures Will Penetrate Into That Area.
The Potential Remains For A Devastating Ice Storm Somewhere In Our
Forecast Area. Right Now...the Greatest Chance Of This Appears To
Be From The Northwest Corner Of Arkansas Into Parts Of East
Central Oklahoma Where Ice Accumulations Are Most Likely To Exceed
One Inch.
Once This System Clears Out Wednesday Night...more Trnaquil
Weather Will Return With A Warming Trend Towards Above Normal
Temperatures By Next Weekend Once We Melt Off The Ice.
Generally Went With A Blend Of The Gfs And Nam Mos Temperatures
Today With A Gfs Mos/ecmwf Blend Preferred Beyond Today.
&&
rcvmo
Member
Nothing like a good icy freeway to get your morning going. Gotta love the adrenaline rush.
Then again, take your time getting to where you're going. Ain't nobody or nothing that important to kill yourself over.
As I tell my P/S workers, I want to hear from you, not about you!! I am right out there in the mix with you just as well.
rcvmo
Then again, take your time getting to where you're going. Ain't nobody or nothing that important to kill yourself over.
As I tell my P/S workers, I want to hear from you, not about you!! I am right out there in the mix with you just as well.
rcvmo
woodyrr
Member
That Sperry-Piltz index is interesting.
Does anybody know of a link to a regularly updated map of the entire state?
The Sunday morning map on the TUL briefing shows an area of potential category 3 damage in western Okfuskee county and I'd like to see how far west it extends.
The OUN briefing is still from yesterday afternoon.
Does anybody know of a link to a regularly updated map of the entire state?
The Sunday morning map on the TUL briefing shows an area of potential category 3 damage in western Okfuskee county and I'd like to see how far west it extends.
The OUN briefing is still from yesterday afternoon.
peterjmag
Member
peterjmag
Member
Latest data to come out is putting Tulsa or just south of in the bulls eye! Wow this storm is getting more interesting by the hour.
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