I don't think CalFire is going to move and will stay on analog VHF. This is the band all wildland fire will stay for foreseeable future. This is for many reasons the two primary reasons the main one being coverage in wildland terrain and the availability of interoperable frequencies and systems on VHF High.
The federal government's wildland frequency assignments as well as the local unit (National Forests, National Parks, BLM Districts, National Wildlife Refuges and Indian Reservations (fire management) are all on VHF-High. They may use UHF for links as well as microwave for some linking. The National Interagency incident communication systems is based on VHF-High, with UHF for linking purposes and camp communications (mostly simplex). The feds don't have a frequency allocation other than VHF High and 406-420 MHz.
State forestry agencies stay mostly on VHF High for interoperability purposes. Even many counties who run their structural and EMS functions on UHF and 700/800 systems have VHF High mobiles or handhelds in most of its apparatus. Either that or multiband radios that are now showing up. This is due to VHF High being the band for wildland fire. L.os Angeles County Fire even has VHF High permanent repeaters throughout the county for wildland command and VHF High frequencies for tacticals. The CalFire VHF incident communications system has grown significantly over the last 5 years using VHF High frequencies with far more frequencies for tactical, air to ground and air to air command. They are increasingly faced with multiple very large fire incidents in the same areas where competition for more frequencies so that adjacent incidents don't interfere with each other.
Many isolated and rural counties are staying on VHF High to to terrain and coverage issues. Having VHF High radios for wildland fire enables easy interoperability with county and town agencies. 700/800 and UHF system don't work as well as VHF High in rural areas and mountainous terrain.