Could the FCC "sunset" all American amateur radio?

[wwhitby]

im not really active but my understanding is that the demand is high bandwidth data in the ghz bands not much interest in anything below 700mhz

Right now there's no interest. BUT, that could change if someone found the need for additional spectrum in the VHF or UHF band. See below.

Actually, the 220-222 MHz segment is now being used by the railroads for their federally-mandated Positive Train Control systems. The consortiums that designed the PTC hardware have already complained to the FCC that they might need more spectrum. So, it's conceivable that the FCC could come after the 222-225 MHz slice where amateur radio is currently primary.

If the PTC folks are needing more spectrum, you can probably kiss a good chunk, if not all, of the remaining 1.25 meter band goodbye.

 

[WB9YBM]

Is there any reason that the FCC would not sunset all amateur radio and just sell it off to the highest bidder or just declare it a threat to "national security" to make it illegal?

It would not be the first time where making a profit takes priority over everything else (although I'm sure plenty of hams would fight it). As for the national security angle, that certainly happened during WWII, so there's a precedent...

 

[WB9YBM]

Right now there's no interest. BUT, that could change if someone found the need for additional spectrum in the VHF or UHF band. See below.
If the PTC folks are needing more spectrum, you can probably kiss a good chunk, if not all, of the remaining 1.25 meter band goodbye.

I'd wonder if the remaining 1.25 meter band would have enough bandwidth for the proposed use, even with narrow-band technology being available.

 

[kinglou0]

And I think part of the under utilization is the lack of readily available hardware. With a few exceptions, YaeComWood don't make 222 gear and these are the brands that hams primarily flock to when they're thinking of buying a new toy.

Same can be said for 900 MHz as well.

You can get mostly older commercial gear but it’s a PITA to get something up and running quickly.

Additionally, if you’re not in a major metro area, you’re also looking at infrastructure as well.

900 MHz in (pick your flavor of digital) is amazing most of the time. There’s still some minor interference but not like it was a few years ago.

 

[AK9R]

I'd wonder if the remaining 1.25 meter band would have enough bandwidth for the proposed use, even with narrow-band technology being available.

Railroad PTC is all data, no voice.

 

[alcahuete]

As far as 1.25m, it's another great example of use it or lose it. 1.25 was dead back then (aside from Condor and a couple other systems) and it's dead now. As you get into the GHz, you are literally looking at the benefit of a couple hundred million 5G users, vs. a tiny handful of hams who never use the spectrum in the first place. If you get a company like UPS, or the train companies who will actually make good use of that spectrum, why not?

And money talks as well. I don't want to get too far off topic and merge the two threads together, but hams are up in arms for possibly having to pay a $50 license fee. It's a lot easier to kick people off of a service who pay nothing and offer very little in return as far as the public good is concerned. Sure, a handful of people operate during disasters (whether they are wanted or not), and get their orange vests on during parades, but really, the general good is served a lot better by these other entities. And the majority of those entities are willing to pay a TON of money for the privilege of using that bandwidth. We are not willing to pay anything.

Call me a pessimist, but I think hams can kiss 900 MHz and above good bye in the not-too-distant future.

 

[drdispatch]

I think you are dating yourself with some of these beliefs.

Most major municipalities/counties/states now have redundant communications systems that have backup generator power in multiple locations, communications trailers (COWs) and satellite capabilities. Most minor municipalities don't even have an EOC. I have never seen an amateur operator at our EOC and can attest to the fact that even when they are present at events, such as the Boston Marathon, their interaction with public safety for communications purposes is almost non-existent.

That said, I do carry a HT with me on Marathon Monday just in case, but I am the anomaly. In the past, your statements were true, but as time has moved forward, the amateur operator has been far outpaced by technology and, as a result, is becoming more and more irrelevant as a tool for assisting public safety.

That depends, I suppose, on where you live and the attitudes of the emergency manager & public safety leaders towards amateur radio, as well as the image that amateurs present to them.

In my area, hams are a respected, useful resource.

 

[kinglou0]

Call me a pessimist, but I think hams can kiss 900 MHz and above good bye in the not-too-distant future.

I've thought a little more about this topic after my initial post and I find myself agreeing with the idea that anything above 2M will be gone in the next few years.

Here's why I think the end is coming:

The number of hams in the US is a lie.

The number of outstanding licenses do not correspond to the number of active amateurs. Active amateurs who actually participate in the hobby in some form. We have WAY TOO many preppers, church group members, and young people who get a license after a weekend cram course and then simply walk away because they're not interested/invested in the technical aspects of the hobby.

It takes the wind out of your sails when you fire up your Baofang and realize that you're not going to talk to some far off exotic location but on empty repeaters, repeaters filled with non-welcoming hams engaging in conversations that violate numerous rules concerning language and decorum, or simply dead air. Why would anyone want that when you can grab your smartphone which does far more than any HT could dream of?

I would also add that the FCC sucks at culling licenses. Just look at how long it takes to get a license cancelled after someone dies and that's if the family even informs the FCC. I'd bet that a good number of licenses currently "active" belong to amateurs that died a while ago. 10 year licenses leave a lot of slack.

Let's talk demographics about who holds a license.

There is no way in any circumstance that anyone could convince me that the average age of an ACTIVE licensed amateur in the United States is younger than 55 years old. The explosion in Technician licenses (and overall amateur numbers) is meaningless when it comes to who is actually going come to the plate and take a swing if this hobby was threatened.

I've seen it with my own eyes for 23 years now. I got licensed back in 1997 because I was a weird kid who liked electronics and happened to stumble across a flier for an upcoming hamfest/testing session in the electronics section at my local library.

I only need my own personal experiences throughout the years to show me that this hobby has always skewed older. Visits to hamfests, swap meets, various clubs, and "social" gatherings have all had me as one of the youngest in attendance if you leave out someone's relative or the newly minted 9 year old amateur who will quickly forget about ham radio once pop-pop passes away and/or the teenage years hit.

We're a dying hobby. It won't be tomorrow or even next year but drastic changes are coming. The numbers won't be there to support any kind of meaningful advocacy for our current frequency allocations above 420 MHz. Don't put your eggs in the ARRL's basket. They're about as useful as a fart in a windstorm given where the FCC's priorities are these days. Your Senators and Congressmen/Congresswomen? Amateur radio....WTF is that? If it's not a hot topic issue, you're getting a form letter saying how very much they appreciate you contacting them and to drop dead.


TL;DR summary - We will lose anything above 2M shortly due to an aging amateur population and our hobbies inability to make a connection to younger generations largely due to advances in technology and societal attitudes towards how people should spend their free time.

 

[mmckenna]

I only need my own personal experiences throughout the years to show me that this hobby has always skewed older. Visits to hamfests, swap meets, various clubs, and "social" gatherings have all had me as one of the youngest in attendance if you leave out someone's relative or the newly minted 9 year old amateur who will quickly forget about ham radio once pop-pop passes away and/or the teenage years hit.

One thing to remember is up until the cheap Chinese radios hit the market, this was a rich mans hobby. Yeah, it could be done on the cheap, but for many the "entry fee" into the hobby was measured in hundreds of dollars.

Todays kids have access to communications methods that most of us could only dream of 30 years ago. The entire "when all else fails" thing that ARRL pushed was a joke at best.

And, I agree, the ARRL shares a lot of blame for what's happened in the hobby. It's approach to attracting a younger crowd appears to have been thought up by a bunch of old guys who thought they knew what 'cool' was. They didn't, and it was embarrassing.

TL;DR summary - We will lose anything above 2M shortly due to an aging amateur population and our hobbies inability to make a connection to younger generations largely due to advances in technology and societal attitudes towards how people should spend their free time.

Maybe you are right, maybe you are wrong. Time will tell.
70cm isn't going anywhere, the military likely isn't going to give it up to corporations. The FCC has no say in that. Amateurs are secondary to the other users. There's also some ISM allocations in the 433/434MHz area.

900MHz band is also shared with ISM. On the other hand, there's some juicy LMR spectrum adjacent to it, the LTE service that is going to be set up on some of that may start looking for more spectrum. We can expect the FCC to sell out as soon as they whiff the smell of fresh money.

 

[mass-man]

As far as 1.25m, it's another great example of use it or lose it. 1.25 was dead back then (aside from Condor and a couple other systems) and it's dead now.

1.25 is not dead...I wish folks would stop saying that. It may not have the number of repeaters that 2/440 has, but there's not a lot of activity on those two bands either. I use 222 daily, it's the only rig in my car! I just wish there was a commercial rig that could be converted easily...the ham stuff just don't cut it.
(now exiting quietly off my soapbox!)

 

[mmckenna]

1.25 is not dead...I wish folks would stop saying that.

It varies by location. Large urban areas (Dallas?) usually have a few 220 repeaters. Get out in the rural areas and 2 meter/70cm is much more common. I'm glad to hear you are getting use out of it. That's the way it should be.

I'm not wanting 220 to go away, and I doubt there's much demand for that little slice of spectrum, unless the railroads decide they want it.

 

[riverradio68]

Chop it up and sell it the highest bidder .... Deregulate 10 to 15 meters and make it all CB! Give repeater bunnies 6 meter and 70 cm and let the rest go to the Military and commercial users.

Amateur radio has spectrum it will never use yet the ARRL fight to keep it from commercial users who are running out of space. I don't know what kind of emergency is going to happen that amateur would ever use the VHF/UHF spectrum it has now. HF however, still used and could be even better managed with more digital applications rather than straight analog phone.

 

[mmckenna]

Chop it up and sell it the highest bidder .... Deregulate 10 to 15 meters and make it all CB! Give repeater bunnies 6 meter and 70 cm and let the rest go to the Military and commercial users.

Amateur radio has spectrum it will never use yet the ARRL fight to keep it from commercial users who are running out of space. I don't know what kind of emergency is going to happen that amateur would ever use the VHF/UHF spectrum it has now. HF however, still used and could be even better managed with more digital applications rather than straight analog phone.

Yeah, I hear you, but that's going to irritate the crap out of some. You bring up some good points. Amateurs/ARRL insist they need all the spectrum, yet it goes unused. Some other countries have smaller allocations, yet the somehow survive.

While I'm a ham myself, some of the stuff is pretty silly. And I'm not personally a fan of the ARRL.

 

[alcahuete]

1.25 is not dead...I wish folks would stop saying that. It may not have the number of repeaters that 2/440 has, but there's not a lot of activity on those two bands either. I use 222 daily, it's the only rig in my car! I just wish there was a commercial rig that could be converted easily...the ham stuff just don't cut it.
(now exiting quietly off my soapbox!)

It is dead. Even in major cities, it isn't used much, and outside of that, rarely at all. You could add 220 and everything 900 and above together, and still not have a fraction of the users that exist on either 2m or 70cm.

 

[riverradio68]

mckenna, use it or lose it comes into play here and the FCC is watching amateur like a hawk. Fortunately for amateur 6 and 2 meters will probably stay intact. Likely even 440 with so much DMR using that portion of the spectrum. But 220 while used yes, isn't being used enough and 900 never really got popular except for Motorola operators at least in the Dallas area.

(Waving atcha from Bug Tussle)

I was being sarcastic about "Chop it up and sell it" But in all honesty maybe everything in VHF High to UHF needs to be reallocated and reshaped. Who uses 900 and 1200 Mhz during emergencies? No one and why? The higher the frequency the narrower the coverage. In a disaster you want wide area, longer range radio coverage especially on simplex. Maybe its time to at least reallocate the spectrum.

As for HF I'd love to see 10, 11, 12 merged into 15 meters for one "Free band" for personal use. No one uses 12 meters and everyone and their unlicensed dog is using 11 and the area between 10 and 11 so why not deregulate that?

Your Serious HF operations happen above 15 meters so leave that unchanged.

Really good thread fellas - Have a great day!

 

[AK9R]

I think "no one" uses 12m, at least in recent history, because the band conditions have not been conducive to making contacts there. Out of 5400 contacts that I've logged in the past 7 years, 28 of them were on 12m. I'm darn close to being "no one".

We all need to be careful judging amateur radio based on just our own experiences. Because of the wide range of bands, modes, and operating interests, I think it's difficult to lump amateur radio into just one simple "elevator talk" description. Likewise, I think it will be difficult to find a singular prescription for "saving" amateur radio today or in the future.

 

[belvdr]

I think "no one" uses 12m, at least in recent history, because the band conditions have not been conducive to making contacts there. Out of 5400 contacts that I've logged in the past 7 years, 28 of them were on 12m. I'm darn close to being "no one".

We all need to be careful judging amateur radio based on just our own experiences. Because of the wide range of bands, modes, and operating interests, I think it's difficult to lump amateur radio into just one simple "elevator talk" description. Likewise, I think it will be difficult to find a singular prescription for "saving" amateur radio today or in the future.

I wonder if 12m could pop with activity using FT8.

 

[tweiss3]

I wonder if 12m could pop with activity using FT8.

I've had 3 12M contacts in the past month on FT8, one being Cuba (1200 miles). So, yes, it's possible. I always check from 6 up when I jump on. Sometimes you are surprised.

 

[prima19rider]

During World War II, as it had done during the first World War, the United States Congress suspended all amateur radio operations. With most of the American amateur radio operators in the armed forces at this time, the US government created the War emergency radio service which would remain active through 1945.

The Tech sector in the country is starting to silence speech they do not like. The news Media is also lying to the American public. Yes, Amature Radio is endangered, In my opinion.

 

[bchappuie]

With the current allocations, for broadband, they need large contigous swaths of sprectrum which just are not available un 2GHZ currently. All the 5G stuff to get to standard, needs a 100MHZ carrier to get the speeds and latency they require.